Brighton v Newcastle Best Betting Predictions, Cheat Sheet & Predicted Lineups
Harry Nye
Harry is a Christchurch-based football enthusiast whose love for sport and numbers naturally led him into the world of sports betting. While studying Mathematics at university, Harry began combining his analytical mindset with his passion for football. Harry focuses predominantly on football, with a particular emphasis on the Bundesliga this season, though as a Liverpool supporter (with a soft spot for QPR thanks to his dad), English football remains close to his heart. Whether it's late-night research or diving into stat models, Harry thrives on spotting the bets others might miss.
Brighton v Newcastle
Kick Off: Sunday 4th May at 14:00
Competition: Premier League
As Brighton welcome Newcastle to the Amex, both teams remain in pursuit of European qualification, albeit with differing ambitions. With Brighton eyeing a possible Conference League spot and Newcastle targeting the top five.
⭐ Newcastle v Brighton Best Bet
➡️ Each Team 3+ Corners and Each Team 1+ Cards Shown on Paddy Power @ 1.44
This selection leans heavily on the consistent corner output and disciplinary tendencies of both teams.
Brighton have amassed at least three corners in 14 of 17 Premier League home matches, averaging 5.12 corners per game. On the flip side, they’ve allowed 3+ corners to 12 of 17 visiting teams, with four of the five exceptions coming from clubs ranked in the bottom six for away corners.
Newcastle average 5.24 corners both taken and conceded per away match, with 13 of 17 seeing them register 3+ themselves. This sets a strong foundation for both teams to contribute here.
On the card front, Brighton’s home games produce fireworks. Both teams have received at least one card in 15 of 17 at home. Though Newcastle are among the most disciplined sides away from home, just nine of 17 seeing both sides booked, the trend flips when facing Brighton.
Each of the last eight H2Hs have seen both teams receive at least one booking, indicating tension consistently boils over in this fixture.
🟢 Brighton v Newcastle ABC Exclusive Boost
👕 Brighton v Newcastle Predicted XI
🔍 Brighton v Newcastle Players to Watch
🔵 Mats Wieffer
Expected to start amid Brighton’s injury-depleted midfield, Wieffer enters a high-pressure clash that plays directly into his fouling tendencies. He’s averaging 1.91 fouls per 90, and while yet to commit 2+ in a single game, this matchup could force his hand.
He’ll be tasked with containing Newcastle’s left-sided duo of Harvey Barnes (1.05 fouls drawn per 90) and Tino Livramento (1.15). If Brighton lose control in midfield or are exposed in transitions, Wieffer’s reactive nature may lead to cheap fouls stacking up quickly.
⚫ Bruno Guimaraes
This might seem an unconventional pick, but stylistically, this is a matchup that suits Guimaraes' more adventurous side. While not known as a volume shooter, he's managed 2+ shots in two of his last three starts, and in three of his last four he's attempted at least one effort.
Against Brighton, he’s been similarly assertive: two shots in the FA Cup clash, and another attempt as a substitute earlier this season, where he is averaging 1.85 shots per 90 minutes against them this season. Away from home, he's managed at least one shot in four of his last six.
📂 Brighton v Newcastle Cheat Sheet
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🔥 Brighton v Newcastle Streaks
Brighton 11+ shots
Brighton 3+ shots on target (4+ in ⅘)
Brighton opponents 2+ goals scored
Brighton opponents 3+ shots on target (4+ in ⅘)
Brighton 3+ corners (4+ in ⅘)
Brighton 1+ cards (2+ in ⅘)
Brighton opponents 1+ cards (3+ in ⅘)
Newcastle 1+ goals scored (3+ in ⅘)
Newcastle 10+ shots (13+ in ⅘)
Newcastle 3+ shots on target
Newcastle opponents 1+ cards (2+ in ⅘)
🏟️ Brighton v Newcastle Hit Rates
Pedro 1+ fouls committed
van Hecke 1+ fouls won
O’Riley 1+ fouls won
Mitoma 1+ shots
Guimaraes 1+ fouls committed
Joelinton 1+ fouls committed
Barnes 1+ shots (2+ in ⅘)
Isak 1+ shots (2+ in ⅘)
Tonali 1+ shots
🏁 Brighton v Newcastle Ref Watch
Referee: Craig Pawson
Fouls | Yellow Cards | Red Cards |
|---|---|---|
22.80 | 4.45 | 0.15 |
Stats are on a per game basis and are taken from 2024/25 Premier League games (20 total).
Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club
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* We recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.