Newcastle average more corners than any team in the league at a very high 6.92 per match while Manchester United allow the 5th most corners of any team in the league at 5.69. Newcastle have had over 4.5 corners in all but two of their league home matches this season.

In the last match between the two in the cup final, Newcastle had 6 corners and when they travelled to Manchester United earlier in the season they had 4. Now they are back at home for this match, I expect them to at least beat the 4 corners they had in the reverse fixture so I am backing them for over 4.5 corners in this match.

No team has had more shots from dead ball passes than Newcastle this season, they average 2.92 shots per 90. Manchester United allow a lot of shots from this sort of situation, at 2.38 per 90 they allow the 3rd most of any team in the league. For this reason I expect Newcastle to be dangerous from set pieces in this match, they could get a few shots from this sort of situation.

Sven Botman has been one of Newcastle’s most dangerous players from set pieces recently. He started the season quietly from corners so his average shots per 90 is only 0.62 but he has had a shot in 12 of his last 17 matches. While this is not guaranteed I think it looks like good odds for Botman to have just 1 shot here.

Newcastle have a lot of pace and will be dangerous on the counter-attack here and Manchester United will be aware of that, they will have measures in place to try and stop them breaking away. Wout Weghorst has still failed to make a real impression at Manchester United this season and is mainly in the team for his defensive work rate. The Dutch forward will quickly get back in transitions trying to win the ball back, this sees him commit a lot of fouls.

Since joining United he has averaged 1.29 fouls per 90, I see him committing a foul in this match due to how many fouls the likes of Newcastle midfielder Bruno Guimaraes draws. Guimaraes draws 2.76 fouls per 90 and Longstaff alongside him draws 1.29 fouls per 90. These two midfielders will see themselves under pressure from Weghorst in transitions and therefore he will have a lot of opportunities to commit fouls. Weghorst has committed a foul in all of his last 8 matches for Manchester United including in the Carabao Cup final then last time the teams played, I expect him to make at least 1 foul here.

Antony vs Dan Burn will be a really interesting matchup in this game, the Manchester United winger draws 1.34 fouls per match and is one of United’s most dangerous attackers. Dan Burn only successfully tackles a player that is running at him 46.3% of the time and makes 0.89 fouls per 90.

Burn has committed a foul in all of his last 4 matches including in the EFL Cup final and in the reverse fixture, Burn committed 3 fouls. Burn has committed a foul in 7 of his 9 matches this season against the top six, he clearly struggles against the bigger teams in the league and I would be surprised if he didn’t commit at least 1 foul here.