This is where the FA Cup becomes quite interesting.

We have a League Two side in Newport County that are excellent at home having won nine, drawn eight and lost just twice in front of their own fans all season. They have only failed to score at home once with both sides scoring in 15 of 19 matches.

We have a Premier League side in Manchester United that aren’t particularly brilliant on the road, winning five, drawing two and losing seven. They have conceded in nine of 14.

The big thing with United is that they tend to beat the sides they’re supposed to beat. While they were defeated in Nottingham, they have beaten Burnley, Sheffield United, Fulham, Everton and Wigan Athletic. They have beaten Everton and Wigan by more than one goal and the latter ought to have been by a bigger margin.

It means that while Newport do pose a threat – and I’m sure they will focus heavily on set-pieces – United are favourites for a reason and we should back them to win comfortably.

The odds are difficult to find value in given the visitors are such heavy favourites but we should expect them to win comfortably, so we are going to back the –2 handicap – especially given Ten Hag will likely have little choice but to field a strong XI, in spite of upcoming Premier League matches.

This may depend on how much of a threat you expect Newport to cause.

Their forward players do generally get off shots. Omar Bogle, Will Evans and Seb Palmer-Houlden are all averaging comfortably over two shots per 90 this season with the former two averaging over a shot on target. Manchester United should dominate but they aren’t completely fallible – Wigan managed two shots on target.

Can Newport manage three at 1.91? That remains to be seen. Wigan aside, only Crystal Palace have failed to have three or more shots on target at home against Manchester United this season. Wigan managed nine shots at goal in that game and everybody behind that front two are 1.3 or higher – including midfielder-turned-wing-back Shane McLoughlin who is 1.8 to have a single shot. The front two are both 2.2 to have 2 or more shots.

When United played Wigan, they played close to a first XI thanks to injuries and a lack of upcoming games. They had a whopping 33 shots and 14 on target. With the expectation being that they will play a similarly strong XI, you have to expect they will produce close to similar numbers. They are 1.44 to have 9 or more shots on target.

Scott McTominay has been a regular shooter for United from midfield and he started against Wigan, managing six shots and two on target. He is averaging close to a shot on target per 90 across all competitions this season. He is 1.36 to have at least one shot on target and 1.44 to have three or more shots.

It’s classic, maybe even cliche, FA Cup talk, but if Newport County are going to create opportunities to score, set-pieces are going to be vital. It will be their chance to get bodies into the box, put the ball in there for the three centre-backs to attack.

Newport have averaged 4.8 corner kicks per game this season and they will want to utilise them. In the league, they sit around mid-table for chances created from set-pieces but have scored only five times – the third lowest in the division.

United are a little inconsistent as far as set-pieces are concerned and in particular corners. However, their dominance against Wigan should be noted when they won 12 corners and conceded just two. It was the first time all season they have won more than 6 corners this season away from home. They have conceded three or more corner kicks in all but three games in all competitions.

It’s not out of the question that Newport manage to utilise their small pitch and poor winter surface for the better and win three corners. It’s likely that United hit the 7 corner threshold they need to win you money at 1.5.

We have to expect that the hosts are going to be feisty in their attempts to engage with their illustrious opponents and give the crowd even more reason to get behind them.

The Exiles have committed 10 or more fouls in 7 of their last 8 matches and in their only other match against Premier League opposition this season, they collected three cards (vs Brentford in the League Cup).

The odds are pretty promising as far as cards and fouls are concerned. Newport are 1.53 to collect two or more cards while Will Evans – six yellow cards and averaging 2 fouls per 90 minutes – and Aaron Wildig – five yellow cards in just over 15 90’s played and 1.32 fouls per 90 – are decent odds to commit a foul.

United didn’t draw many fouls against Wigan Athletic but it was a different type of game. Newport have made their game about a united press, utilising width and delivering into the area, while Wigan are far more possession based in their approach to the game.

United did commit nine fouls in that game with Wigan and with Evans being fouled around one and a half times per 90 minutes and Shane McLoughlin at 1.93 fouls drawn, some of their players are worth considering. Especially with the likes of Luke Shaw and Lisandro Martinez potentially starting after injury.