I still remember watching Trevor Lawrence during his freshman season at Clemson, where it was almost university agreed that he was the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck.

While he hasn't quite lived up to those expectations, he is finally in a comfortable situation with a high-level coaching staff and weapons. It's especially encouraging to watch what Liam Coen did with Baker Mayfield, another quarterback the general public gave up on a bit too quickly. Lawrence is running out of opportunities to prove people wrong, and I think this presents the perfect buy opportunity after a slow start. 

The Jaguars didn’t just add talent; they also shifted from one of the hardest schedules in football last season, to one of the easiest projected schedules this year. They are also in the easiest division in football, giving them ample opportunities to stack up enough wins to make the playoffs. While most longshot bets are just a gamble at the wildcard, the Jaguars have a legit path to winning their division. 

The Colts just named Daniel Jones the starting quarterback, and despite strengths on both the offensive and defensive lines, they have really no upside with a quarterback who struggles to complete a pass of more than 15 air yards.

The Texans are the favourites to win this division, but they have a truly ugly offensive situation. Quarterback CJ Stroud had a great rookie season, but really regressed last season. Trading Laramy Tunsil and sticking with this brutal offensive line isn't giving him to proper conditions to bounce back. Running back Joe Mixon is likely to miss a majority of the season, meaning they are depending on Nick Chubb, coming off a severe injury, and Dameon Pierce in the backfield.

At receiver, Nico Collins and Christian Kirk are best as downfield vertical weapons, and I have a hard time seeing this offensive line hold up well enough to get them the ball efficiently. The defence will be good as always, but with so many holes on offense, a team like the Jaguars can step up and take advantage. 

While it's not talked about much, this will likely be one of the best special teams units in football with 2024 Pro Bowlers in punter Logan Cooke and long snapper Ross Matiscik supporting Cam Little, who might have the best leg in the big leagues after knocking down a 70-yarder in pre-season. With a weak division and some strong offense opportunities, I love backing the Jaguars to make a run in 2025.

While the AFC is a murderers' row, I think the Bengals have all the tools in the toolbox to take down the best in football. It's never a good sign when you look at the MVP odds, and all the top quarterbacks are in your division. In the AFC, you're going to have to take down one of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson when the lights are the brightest, and Joe Burrow is the only quarterback in this division with experience in doing so.

While I would love to back some of the young darkhorses out west, with the Chargers and Broncos fielding really good teams, these squads are inexperienced when it comes to the playoffs, where it really matters the most. We have seen Joe Burrow take this Bengals team to the Super Bowl, and I think this squad has the firepower to do it again. 

While they have the always challenging Lamar Jackson in the division, I do think they will find success against the Steelers and Browns. Both of those squads will continue to have top 10 defence's, but with geriatric quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco at the helm, it's hard to have postseason expectations. You can punish the Bengals on offense, but these teams just aren't as equipt to take advantage of their weak secondary. If the Bengals' defence can go from league worst to league average, it's going to be hard for teams to keep up with that elite offense. 

After an extremely slow start that tanked the season last year, I like how the Bengals played starters a lot more in the preseason, with the idea that everyone needs to be fired up and ready to start this season much better. While they do have some tougher divisional games, the schedule starts much easier than last season. Additionally, they went an extremely underwhelming 4-7 in one-score games. I would expect some serious regression in that category, given the quality of quarterback play they have.

We just saw Ja'Marr Chase post one of the most impressive wide receiver seasons in recent history, and with Tee Higgins' contract situation finally resolved, they go into the season with arguably the best WR duo in Football. Chase Brown added much-needed support on the ground, especially in the second half, and they finally have an above-average offensive line to depend on.

Reigning sack leader Trey Henderickson also finally signed his contract, bringing back the heart of that pass rush on defence. The AFC is absolutely stacked with killers, but at these odds I'm willing to take a chance on the Bengals who should have enough firepower to go blow-for-blow with the best in the NFL. 

Finally, we are going to finish up in the AFC East, where I expect the Bills to continue their dominance under Josh Allen. While they somehow can't find their way to the Super Bowl, they have cleaned up in their division over the past couple of seasons, and with their winning window starting to close, I expect them to push their chips in the centre this season.

The Patriots are a team that is finally looking up in the post-Tom Brady era, with Drake Maye looking like one of the more promising young quarterbacks in the league. Combine that with a coaching upgrade and plenty of free agency spending, I think they are ready to take that next step forward.

Now you're just left with the Jets and the Dolphins to battle for the bottom of the division, but you're getting a much better price fading Miami. While they have a higher upside than the Jets, I honestly think New York could give teams some problems on the ground with their run-centric offense led by Justin Fields. If they can get back to what the defence looked like in the first half of last season, the Jets could be an extremely pesky team to play. I get that the Jets playing above expectation is an ugly thought, but it's also not necessary for the Dolphins to fail this season, just a little added bonus. 

What scares me the most about the Dolphins is really the same thing that has plagued them through these last couple of seasons: depth. While they have this great first level of recognisable names, once the realities of the gruelling NFL schedule start to sink in, you see the Dolphins struggle more and more with injury-related problems.

At this point, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is more known for his concussions than he is for his actual on-field play. Tyreek Hill has been dealing with nagging injuries, and it really showed in his play last year, while WR2 Jaylen Waddle has never seemed to be able to play a full season. And they really have no depth behind starting running back Devon Achane, who is explosive but not physically built to carry a full NFL RB1 workload. 

After all these seasons, you would also expect they would invest in a better backup quarterback, but when Tua inevitably goes down, I have no confidence in Zach Wilson behind this bad offensive line. If you are tapped into NFL preseason news, there is really no team with lower vibes coming into the season than the Dolphins.

I see a legit path to Mike McDaniel getting fired early in the season, and this Dolphins team potentially competing for the worst record in the NFL, rather than a playoff spot.