Jerick ‘Jet’ McKinnon was drafted in 2014 and has never really fulfilled his potential until now. Andy Reid has found a star role for the previously back up running back in his offence in recent weeks, particularly as a receiving threat. McKinnon has caught a receiving touchdown in 6 straight games with a total of 9 touchdowns across this stretch.

Mecole Hardman hasn’t played since the victory over the Titans, meaning the Chiefs have lost their dynamic threat for over half the season. However, this is what has made McKinnon thrive as he inherited this dual threat role as a rusher and receiver. In the Titans game, McKinnon began to see more targets with 8, 8,1 and 6 in the next 4 as Mahomes began to trust Jerick. He then followed it up with multiple reception games for the rest of the season in his touchdown streak.

The Jaguars have allowed the 2nd most receptions to running backs with 5.94 per game but also allow the 4th most yards showing they fail to cover and bring down the tough runners in the open field.

McKinnon’s form couldn’t be coming at a better time and I fancy him to find the endzone in the early game on Saturday.

The Chiefs have the better quarterback and probably the better team on the whole, but it’s the playoffs and I think 8.5 points is too big a line for a divisional game. The Jaguars showed exactly what the playoffs are about when they came from 27-0 down to win last week and even if the Chiefs start red hot, I like the Jaguars to make a late game charge.

Over the last 3 games, the Jaguars average 15.7 points in the second half which when compared to the Chiefs averaging just 9.3 over the same stretch, should provide optimism for the Jags to cover. They boosted their defence in the draft, taking Travon Walker with the first pick and they will hope he can provide that x-factor in the playoffs alongside Josh Allen having another stellar season. Linebacker Foye Oluokun led the NFL in tackles for the second straight year which should mildly counter the electricity of Juju Smith-Schuster and Travis Kelce who are so good after the catch.

We saw last week how difficult it is to cover a big points spread as the Bills only won by 3 despite being favoured by 13. The Bengals also struggled and I could see the Chiefs winning by either a touchdown or field goal at most. Only twice have Jacksonville lost by over 8.5 points this season and I’d be shocked if it happens again tonight.

Similar to the Jags defence, the Chiefs defence fail to cover running backs receiving threats at all. Allowing the third most yards to running backs and the most receptions, the only team to allow 6+ receptions on average. Etienne should be able to capitalise on this as he comes into this one in fine form.

Etienne established the run game against the Chargers, despite Trevor Lawrence’s early struggles, rushing for 109 yards on 20 carries. Etienne’s speed is unmatched and in the open field he is unstoppable. However, I think it will be a different story against the Chiefs who have Chris Jones up the middle.

Having an incredible season, Jones has 15.5 sacks and has been essential to the Chiefs turnaround defence. He pressures the QB from the interior, forcing him to release the ball, hence the Chiefs have the most receptions to RB’s as they are in the vicinity. Having a killer up the middle like Chiefs should stop Etienne’s ability to break away through the interior more. Expect the Jags to use play action and find Etienne to add to his 328 receiving yards at over 9 yards per reception. In 3 of his last 5 games, Etienne has sailed over his number and all the signs point to it happening again.