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NFL Play-Offs: Wild Card Round Best Bets & Predictions

NFL Play-Offs: Wild Card Round Best Bets & Predictions

Friday 13 January, 20233 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...
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NFL Wild Card Round begins Saturday 14th January
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Action starts from 9:30pm
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Live on Sky Sports NFL

After 18 weeks of thrilling American Football, the regular season of the NFL has concluded, and we can finally look forward to the playoffs. 4 rounds featuring the best sides in the league as we have narrowed the field down to 14 from 32. Whether it’s thrilling offences such as the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals, or elite defences like the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys, there is something to look out for in every game this weekend. I have picked out my best bets and also tried to break down the playoffs for newcomers to the sport so they can engage.

What are the Play-Offs and how are the teams decided?

Each team in the NFL plays 17 games per season. 16 teams compete in the American Football Conference (AFC) and 16 teams compete in the National Football Conference (NFC). The divide is important for who makes the playoffs; however, teams can play any of the other 31 teams in the league, not solely the other 15 teams in their conference.

Within these 2 groups of 16, teams are split into 4 groups of 4, called divisions known as the NFC or AFC North, West, South and East. It’s fairly simple to qualify, win your division of 4 and you make the playoffs as one of the top 4 seeded sides based on win total with the best record getting the number 1 seed and a bye through the wildcard round.

As you can see on the graphic above, there are 7 teams on each side, so where do the 5,6, and 7 seeds come from. Teams can qualify for the playoffs through one off three wildcard spots which are awarded to sides who didn’t win their division of 4 but finished with the best record of the rest. In the NFC on the right hand side, the Cowboys, Giants and Seahawks are the wildcards as they had the best 3 records of teams that didn’t finish top of their set of 4 and will each travel to a division winner in the form of the Bucs, Vikings and 49ers.

These 7 teams then compete across 3 rounds in a knockout to win their respective conference and earn the right to represent the AFC or NFC in the Superbowl. One team from each conference meets in the big game for the chance to hoist the Lombardi.

NFL Play-Offs: Wild Card Round Predictions & Best Bets

7. Seattle Seahawks (9-8) @ 2. San Francisco 49ers (13-4)

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Saturday 14th January
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9:30pm start time
The San Francisco 49ers are absolutely flying coming into the playoffs, on a win streak of 10, going 6-0 when Brock Purdy has taken the majority of snaps at Quarterback. The Quarterback is the heartbeat of an offence, so it came as a great shock to many when the final pick of this year’s draft arguably improved this offence. Earning the tag of Mr. Irrelevant as the 262nd pick, Purdy has proved himself as the complete opposite, playing with the poise of a man who’s been in the league for years, not a rookie (first year). The pick of the rookie Quarterbacks, Purdy has formed a strong connection with tight end George Kittle. Kittle is one of the best two tight ends in the league alongside Travis Kelce but has seen his production limited due to former QB Jimmy Garoppolo. ‘Jimmy G’ isn’t as mobile as Purdy and stayed in the pocket (the area created by blockers around the QB), meaning Kittle had to stay in and block, a pivotal job for TE’s. Now he has Purdy who can extend plays, Kittle has been deployed as a receiver more, racking up 22 of his 60 receptions this season in Purdy’s 5 starts. The Seahawks average a league worst 69.24 yards per game to tight ends despite only allowing a standard 4.82 receptions per game, showing how tight ends are able to increase their yards per reception against the Seahawks. Kittle averages 12.8 yards per reception this season and that should increase tonight. Kittle has traditionally dominated his division rival in the Seahawks. These teams hate each other and number 85 loves to rise to the occasion. He recorded 4 receptions for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns in the matchup a month ago. The game before that he had 12 receptions for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns again. He should sail over 40 yards with ease on Saturday, a mark he has 7 of his last 8 v Seattle, registering 39 when he didn’t hit this mark.

*Click drop down arrow to view full bet research

5. LA Chargers (10-7) @ 4. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)

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Sunday 15th January
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1:15am start time
In one of the more intriguing matchups of the weekend, the LA Chargers will face Jacksonville Jaguars with quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence expected to shine. Both debuting in the playoffs, it’s tough to know what to expect from the pair but Herbert finished 2nd in yards this season and Lawrence also landed in the top 10, showing their quality. Both these players are looking to win their respective franchises a first Super Bowl. This game is a coin flip as the Chargers have a full bill of health and the Jaguars build momentum with 5 wins on the spin. The line for this game is -1.5 and the over/under total is 47.5, both too close to call. For that reason I’m leaning on player props, specifically on Jaguars lead running back Travis Etienne. Drafted in the first round by the Jags in 2021 after a stunning college career at Clemson where he scored in 46 games, Etienne has shown promise with 1,441 yards from scrimmage. He has had 5 100+ yard rushing games with 4 of the 5 coming in one score games regardless of the result. Also having 35 receptions for 316 yards, makes Etienne a pivotal receiving threat that defences have to account for. Before his trade to the Jets, James Robinson had 100 yards as the lead back for the Jags against the LA Chargers, who pose a pretty poor run defence. The Chargers rank 31st in yards against per game by running backs averaging 127.29 at an average of 5.59 per carry, a league high. Etienne has gone over this yards total in 3 of his last 5 games, only falling short to the Titans who have the 2nd best run defence statistically.

*Click drop down arrow to view full bet research

7. Miami Dolphins (9-8) @ 2. Buffalo Bills (13-3)

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Sunday 15th January
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6pm start time
Preseason favourites for the Super Bowl, Buffalo Bills have lived up to expectations winning 13 of their 16 completed games, surviving constant setbacks, none more frightening than Damar Hamlin’s cardiac arrest against the Bengals. It’s a credit to Buffalo that they came out fighting the next week and Nyheim Hines 96 yard kick-off return made the stadium erupt. No one would want to face this Buffalo Bills side in current form, especially the Miami Dolphins who are a mind boggling team. Starting 3-0, they lost 3 on the spin, before winning 5, then losing another 5, and sealing their playoff spot with a win on the final day. QB Tua Tagovailoa has been central to the Fins success but it will be criminal if he plays this week and the Fins don’t take his concussion protocol more seriously after he suffered his 3rd of the season. With Teddy Bridgewater or Skylar Thompson under centre, the Dolphins should get blown out by 15+ points. On the off chance Tua plays, I’m teasing the line down to Bills -6.5. In their last 3 games the Bills averaged 34 points per game and the Dolphins 17.3 points, mainly due to the Dolphins inconsistent QB play. Josh Allen is one of the best players in football and the Bills are getting hot, if he cleans up those turnovers the Bills have a real shot at a ring.

*Click drop down arrow to view full bet research

6. NY Giants (9-7-1) @ 3. Minnesota Vikings (13-4)

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Sunday 15th January
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9:30pm start time
An underrated game going into the Wild Card weekend sees a rematch of the week 16 matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the New York Giants. The Vikings took the game on Christmas Eve 27-24 with a walk off field goal and the Giants will be seeking revenge. The Giants will fancy their chances of an upset in this one, and I was very close to picking the Giants to win at 2.38 but it’s tough to bet against Justin Jefferson who could very well rout the G men. For that reason, I’m inclined to lean towards the over in this game, dropping it down to 44.5 at slightly lower odds. Minnesota are a bizarre team that seem to either win narrowly or get blown out, shown by their -3 points differential despite winning 13 games and only losing 4. Their defence is atrocious and ranks 28th in points against, including an average of 26 against the Bears, Packers and Giants in their last 3. 3 sides outside the top 10 for offensive numbers. At home they have averaged 25.2 points against per game, affording the most yards to WR per game and top 10 for rushing yards allowed to RB’s. Daniel Jones is much improved and alongside Saquon Barkley should dice up this weak Minnesota D. The Giants struggled to cover Justin Jefferson in their first matchup as he had 133 receiving yards with the Giants secondary depleted. Adoree Jackson is still questionable with an MCL Sprain, so I can see this becoming the main shootout of the weekend with all the fire power on offence.

*Click drop down arrow to view full bet research

6. Baltimore Ravens (10-7) @ 3. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)

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Monday 16th January
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1:15am start time
The Ravens average top 10 in passing yards against and the Bengals have Joe Burrow. That would be enough to justify this selection landing in itself. Joe Burrow is having a fine season, likely to only be denied MVP by Chiefs Quarterback Patrick Mahomes. 5th in yards, 2nd in completion % from starters and 2nd in passing TD’s, Burrow has simply dominated all defences in his way as part of an 8 game winning streak. His receiver room complements his QB play significantly. Jamarr Chase and Tee Higgins could both be classed as top 15 with the former possibly even top 5. While running back Joe Mixon means defences have to account for a run game too. The Bengals have lost one game where all their key players were fully healthy, and he also torched the Ravens when they were fit last year averaging 470 passing yards on average! Mind blowing. The Ravens starman Lamar Jackson is questionable and hasn’t played a full game since November in a loss to Jacksonville. Since that game the Ravens have lost 3 of 5 only playing one playoff opponent in the Bengals. I expect J.K. Dobbins to take the bulk of the work giving the Ravens a shot but they shouldn’t come near this explosive Bengals side. Joe Burrow might throw for 35 points himself.

*Click drop down arrow to view full bet research

5. Dallas Cowboys (12-5) @ 4. TB Buccaneers (8-9)

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Tuesday 17th January
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1:15am start time
Tom Brady is in the playoffs, shock horror, and it’s really tough to bet against the greatest to ever do it. 7 Super Bowls, more than any franchise, 3 MVP’s, 5 Super-bowl MVP’s. It’s something we may never see again; I’d be shocked if we do. He’s coming off the back of his first losing season with a banged up Bucs side who have underwhelmed majorly, with heavy blame coming the way of Head Coach, Todd Bowles and OC, Byron Leftwich. That doesn’t change the fact that he is 7-0 against the Cowboys, a side who just got thumped by the Commanders and lost to the Bucs earlier this season. The Cowboys are favoured in this matchup with the line at -2.5. They are the better team, winning 12 games this season but they’re crumbling at the wrong time, especially having to travel to play Brady at home. I find this game too close to call, and the total doesn’t necessarily fill me with confidence either over or under, so I’m going to turn to Mike Evans who I see as exceptional value to score @ 2.75. Evans is the Bucs WR1 and has 9 consecutive 1000 yard seasons since entering the NFL, a league record. He had 81 TD’s across that time using his height to dominate corners all over the NFL. In 6 play-off games Evans has scored 4 TD’s and has 440 yards, showing his ability to do it in prime time. Furthermore, the Cowboys defence is efficient at getting to the QB but have allowed the most TD to WR’s this season including 8 in their last 4 games to WR’s with far less quality.

*Click drop down arrow to view full bet research

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