The 49ers have an amazing defence on the whole but if you can find any weakness it’s in the pass game. I’ll talk about their run defence later, but their pass defence average the 8th most air yards on completions in this season. A dominant WR1 has been their nemesis and that is exactly what A.J. Brown is.

Drafted by the Titans in the second round of the 2019 draft, Brown was traded to the Eagles in exchange for the 18th pick and netted himself a $100 million contract. He then went on to have a career year with 1,496 receiving yards in 16 starts with 11 touchdowns. One of his statement performances came in week 8 against the Steelers, who average less receiving yards against than the Niners, where Brown has 156 yards and 3 touchdowns.

WR1’s have excelled against the Niners, being the main way to attack this defence. Charvarius Ward is a top corner for the Niners and Hufanga is good in the run game but Ward is expected to cover Devonta Smith on over 50% of snaps which should leave Brown to target the likes of Lenoir, who himself is having a good playoff season. Team’s top receivers have gone for 117, 136, 91 and 153 yards in the past 4 weeks. A.J. Brown, the pro bowl starter, should have over 70 yards and I also see value in his longest reception @ over 25.5 yards.

Miles Sanders is also having an amazing year as a piece of this Eagles offence; however his matchup today should mean he has a quiet game. The Eagles have the number 1 rushing offence in the league but that isn’t solely on Sanders, and I expect the number 2 DVOA rush defence to stuff Sanders’ rushing gains.

The Niners are only allowing 77 rush yards against per game which is a credit to their front 7. If you break through their front 4, you are greeted by Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shair, the best linebacker core in the NFL. Hufanga often steps up instead of being a deep safety which provides further tackling to get by. Sanders managed just 24 yards against the number one rush defence in the Titans and I reckon he has a similar amount today. Particularly when the Eagles QB Jalen Hurts averages so many rushing yards and Sanders will split the carriers with Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott.

Two of the best defences in the league leads to the over/under number being lower than expected at 46.5 which means over 41.5 is great value for our bet builder. The Eagles have playmakers all over the field which means they can target the Niners weaknesses as they have only allowed 8 rushing touchdowns. Likewise for the 49ers, with talent ranging from CMC to George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, they have a diverse range to exploit the Eagles.

The Eagles score 28 points per game at home which means the Niners would have to score just 14 points to land this number. Since Brock Purdy took over as the starting QB for the Niners, he has lit this offence on fire despite being a 7th round rookie. Purdy is special and the Niners average 32.7 points per game over the last 3, including just 19 points last week. He has also benefitted from the Christian McCaffrey trade which brought CMC to the bay in. week 8. Two days after the trade the Niners lost to the Chiefs, but since then have won 12 straight, mainly due to their high powered offence.

The Niners were widely criticised when they traded for Christian McCaffrey, giving up a multitude of picks for a running back which is a position often seen as disposable and easily to interchange. McCaffrey is different, a dual threat running back who has brought this bay area team to life and stayed injury free, one of his biggest question marks.

On the ground CMC has been superb, with 4 100 yards rushing games, but it’s the receiving game that he excels and benefits Brock Purdy significantly. He played 11 regular season games for the Niners and had 2+ receptions in every game, cashing 25+ yards in 8 of the 11, 10 if you disregard the Chiefs game where he barely knew the playbook.

Running backs average 6.4 targets for 5 receptions and 32.5 yards against the Eagles, enough to land this prop without even accounting for CMC’s individual ability. With 4 defensive lineman with 10 sacks, the Eagles will have pressure on QB Brock Purdy forcing him to get the ball out early. The receiving group known as the YAC Bros are so good after the catch but CMC will be Purdy’s first read and will see plenty of targets.