Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
A divisional battle to kick off the playoffs should hopefully set the tone for an amazing round of NFL games. Arguably the two most successful franchises in the NFC West, both the Seahawks and Niners have Super Bowls and will be gunning for their second and sixth respectively.
The 49ers were largely expected to finish second to the LA Rams in this division, but their catastrophic season allowed the Niners to coast to the title, going 6-0 in the division and winning 13 of their 17 games. Seattle on the other hand, were expected to lose the majority of their games, but ended up 9-8 in one of the shocks of the season. The Niners have won both matchups this season but it’s the playoffs and anything can happen. It’s traditionally never easy to beat a side three times in a season. Let’s see what happens on Saturday.
Since the 49ers acquired Christian McCaffrey for an abundance of picks in the midseason, they have been electric as the running back relighted the fire in this offence full of weapons. CMC tasted defeat just two days after he arrived in Santa Clara but after a week of learning the playbook he threw a touchdown pass, caught a receiving touchdown and ran another score in himself. That game included, the Niners are 10-0 since then.
CMC has been one of the main reasons why they are winning and posting one of the highest scoring offences in football. He has a touchdown in 6 consecutive games. For rookie QB Brock Purdy he offers a checkdown option, which is where the QB takes an easy shorter pass expecting to get less yards. Pivotally CMC has the most yards after the catch of any running back since this trade, showing he can make a play out of little.
As I mentioned he has scored in 6 consecutive games, including against Seattle where he had 138 yards from scrimmage. Seahawks allow the 6th most yards to running backs which should incentivise the Niners to run the ball. I like the Niners main man to find the end zone yet again.
The Niners defence which is stellar, and star studded all over the field, has lapsed in confidence over the past couple weeks. 20 points to the Commanders is a lot for this defence but it was the Jarrett Stidham led Raiders dropping 34 points that is the main point of concern.
The Raiders had 500 total yards of offence compared to their average of 352, including 365 passing yards compared to a 231 average. Seattle will look to play in a similar style using their 1-2 punch of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to exploit the Niners young secondary. Charvarius Ward has been lights out this season, but the rest of the corners (who cover the wide receivers) have been inconsistent, showing glimpses. Geno Smith has the highest completion % of starting QB’s and should be able to find his men if given time by his blockers.
On the other side of the ball game, Seattle’s defence should struggle to withstand this barrage from the 49ers. Trent Williams is the best left tackle in the league. Elijah Mitchell is a brilliant back up to the electric CMC with 2 TD’s in the last game. Deebo Samuel was an all-pro last year (The best at their position). Brandon Aiyuk is the most underrated WR2 in football. And George Kittle is top 2 if not the best at his position. Wow.
Seattle’s defence were unable to hold them off in December, as the Niners dropped 21 points but had a dubious TD overturned and wasted time from the 1 yard line in the last minutes. On another day that’s a minimum 35 points and should have been more. I love the over here.
When Geno Smith was announced as the Seahawks starting QB, the rest of the league was chuckling away, some even saying the Seahawks would go 0-17. They are now a playoff side with a dynamic offence due to their excellent QB play. Geno has posted career year numbers and deserves all the plaudits coming his way.
4282 yards and 30 TD’s for a QB rating over 100, Geno has greatly improved from the disappointing prospect we saw stumble with the Jets out of college. He managed a 70.5% completion % against the 49ers in December and 80% in the September defeat, showing his ability to stay poised under immense pressure from the Niners pass rush.
Geno has gone under 200 passing yards twice since the first two games of the season and hasn’t gone under 190 since then. 224 passing yards is exceptionally priced for the over as he plays an elite defence. When the Seahawks fall behind, they will have to pass the ball, running the ball chews up too much clock, expect Geno to sling it close to 300 yards on Saturday.
Kenneth Walker has looked an immense prospect, but this game is a tough one for him. Averaging 2.5 and 3.9 yards per carry against the Niners in their two meetings compared to his average of 4.6, the Niners have stuffed the rookie out of the game, forcing him to become more of a receiving threat. Where Walker hasn’t been able to run against the best run defences, he has been an option out the backfield with 4 receptions against the Niners as a starter and 6 against the Bucs.
At Over 12.5, it shouldn’t need more than 2 receptions for Walker to get this many yards and I see this as exceptional value to cap off the bet builder. Running back groups average over 30 yards receiving vs the Niners, purely because they can’t run the ball and become receivers. Only the Falcons RB Committee has had 10 or less receiving yards against the Niners, expect Walker to help the over here.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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