I think the saying “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” applies perfectly here after we’ve cashed this touchdown prop twice over the last couple of weeks here. Ever since Russell Wilson took over for Justin Fields, this offense has looked drastically different.

When Fields was quarterback we saw the Steelers rate out bottom five in pass rate over expectation, feeding Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren extremely heavy workloads. While they will still be very involved, they face the toughest rush defence in the league which has teams throwing at the highest rate above expectation in the league.

If Najee Harris couldn’t get the job done last week against the Commander’s front, I have very minimal confidence in a much tougher matchup. We saw Pickens take advantage of that with another touchdown, his second in three weeks of Wilson starting.

The Ravens have a glaring problem, their secondary has really struggled to spot explosive plays, and Pickens is quite literally one of the three best-contested catch receivers in the NFL. Always looking for receivers with the ability to win in jump ball situations in the red zone but also score from outside the red zone, and Pickens fits that perfectly. If the Steelers hope to keep up with the Ravens offense he will need a big day.

In terms of chemistry, it’s hard to find a better repertoire than the connection that Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams have. While it has absolutely not been smooth sailing for the Jets this season, they find themselves in a very winnable game against the Colts. After recording a questionable in practice with Illness it looks like he’s going to suit up without any restrictions on Sunday. While Adams has only scored one touchdown with the Jets thus far, he was working on a more limited workload and still getting acclimated with the team.

Over the last two weeks, Adams has seen 13 and 11 targets resulting in a touchdown against a tough Texans defense. Last week they got destroyed by the Cardinals, but Adams dropped a wide-open end zone pass, I don’t see that happening again.

So far this season the Jets lead the NFL in pass rate inside the red zone (79% via Fantasy Points data) and that’s mostly data with Lazard as the WR2 not a huge upgrade in Adams. While common sense would maybe lead to some more Breece Hall usage, I think we see Rodgers continue to aggressively pass in the red zone, and no better target than his best buddy Davante Adams.

While a Saints versus Browns matchup might look absolutely awful on paper, it’s quietly one of the best games on the slate for player props. Earlier in the season we found different ways to fade the Browns with Deshaun Watson at quarterback, but Jameis Winston and his aggressive tendencies make this team suddenly very easy to back.

Since the quarterback shift Tillman is averaging 10 targets and a touchdown per game. That’s absolutely elite usage, we are just getting a good number because he really doesn’t have the name value to back it up. He’s seen a 25% first read target share and a 37% yards per route run against Cover 1, which the Saints run the 8th most of in the NFL. With Nick Chubb still recovering from injury I think this team may pass more than people expect.

NO has allowed the 4th-most yards to WRs and 6th most touchdowns this season, and that’s not even fully factoring in the two major cornerback shifts, with Marshon Lattimore getting traded and Paulson Adebo going down for the season. They now have to deploy one of the worst units in the league against a Browns team that is definitely willing to throw the Ball with Winston at quarterback. Loving backing a guy like Tillman who has shown impressive contested catch ability and a diverse route tree in a good matchup here against the Saints.