Amon Ra Saint Brown leads all Lions receivers with 31 red zone targets, averaging 2 per game. This is the highest total we’ve seen in a play-off game over the last couple of years, so we can definitely expect plenty of scoring opportunities. He’s 3rd among all WRs in QBR when targeted, and has shown an ability to do this all while handling incredibly high volume. Brown is already coming in with the 4th highest receiving yard total of any receiver in the league, we’re not sure why we wouldn’t back him in a game with a 56 total.

The Lions’ pass attack has been incredibly impressive this year as they currently rank top-6 in Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. They do have a great rushing attack, but Washington has more problems in the secondary and that’s where we expect them to be attacked. Marshon Lattimore returned last week but got absolutely torched in coverage, and Washington really doesn’t have a good option to stop this passing attack.

Puka Nacua was even money for a touchdown last week, so definitely surprised to see such a good price at +150 or better across the market.

He led all wide receivers in yards per route run this year with 3.88, and has been extremely efficient since joining the starting lineup after injury. He’s averaging almost 10 targets per game and should be extremely involved as the #1 target. Cooper Kupp really hasn’t looked good since returning and was even coming off the field on some 2-WR sets. Puka has shown an ability to win against a lot of different coverages and even has some rushing upside which you love to see in the red zone.

While he posted an unimpressive game log last game, it was a surprising game script where the Rams took an early lead and dominated. They looked great when they threw the ball, but they didn’t need to and ended up running heavily thanks to the game script. That should be a lot tougher against one of the best rush defenses in football.

While the Ravens have plenty of great red zone options, we think Lamar Jackson’s price is too good to pass up here. Jackson had another dominant regular season on the ground, posting over 900 rushing yards once again. They have been notably aggressive with him on the ground even early in games, posting 15 carries for 81 yards in round 1 of the play-offs. While he didn’t score, he really didn’t have to run much in the season half thanks to score, which won’t be the case against Buffalo.

When these teams met up earlier this season, the ground game was the deciding factor. Lamar Jackson posted 54 yards & 1 TD on 6 carries (9.0 YPC) while Derrick Henry had 199 yards & 1 TD on 24 carries (8.3 YPC). Keeping Josh Allen off the field will be key, and we expect a heavy dose of Jackson and Henry on the ground all day long. In what should be a back-and-forth affair between 2 elite quarterbacks, we expect both to be heavily involved in the red zone.