The Bills are the biggest favorite of the young season against the Saints this weekend, but we can still capitalize on the prop market. With an implied team total of 31.5 (also the highest of the season) we can expect plenty of scoring from the Bills offense. Who immediately comes to mind as a beneficiary? James Cook.

After an insane 18 touchdown breakout season last year, James Cook looks on pace for similar numbers this season. He already has a touchdown in every game this season posting 4 total, and he’s one of the fewer backs that also gets real targets out of the backfield as well. While the whole world wants to see Josh Allen sling the ball around, Cook has proven to be a very good redzone back. The Saints profile as a bottom 10 rush defense, and we’ve seen Cook take care of business in much tougher matchup.

Allen is his biggest competition on the ground, but I doubt they want their franchise quarterback running very aggressively in a low stakes game as huge favorites over the Saints. There is no indication anyone is going to challenge Cook for touches until garbage time, and I trust Cook to score before that.

With the Saints projected to be huge underdogs, it’s likely we see plenty of Spencer Rattler dropbacks once again this week. With the increased volume I expect him to lock into his top target in Chris Olave, who has been used all over the field. Olave leads the entire league in targets with 37. While he was more of a downfield receiver in the past, when teams are ahead they tend to play conservative 2-high safety shells, meaning trailing teams can just complete easy underneath passes in garbage time.

Chris Olave has posted 7, 6, and 10 catches this season with 13, 10, and 14 targets so far. That kind of elite usage is just too hard to avoid, and it’s pretty clear they are going to be forced to throw, especially since they are playing the best offense in football. Kellen Moore has given Olave a heavy dose of designed targets and I would expect that to continue on Saturday.

The Saints are not even close to the best offense in football, but they are the highest-paced. They are also second in no-huddle rate, further increasing the pace. As long as they keep running so many plays, the volume will make up for the lack of efficiency in the prop market.

We backed Juwan Johnson on his first game of the season, and I look forward to going right back in another good matchup. The former WR turned TE has been a huge part of this Saints offense this year, thanks to new head coach Kellen Moore. While Johnson has been a dependable redzone target for the last couple seasons, we really didn’t see his role improve much with the presence of other TE’s like Taysom Hill stealing opportunities. With all of the competition injuried coming into the season, he is the only real tight end threat on this roster.

What has that led to? Elite usage. Juwan Johnson is second among ALL tight ends in targets, with 28. He had a 90% route participation in the first two weeks, and that only dropped with a blowout last week. As long as the starters avoid getting benched, Johnson should have a shot to run a route on almost every drop back, which is pretty rare for TE’s.

He’s the #2 option behind Olave, posting 11, 9, 8 targets with 8, 5, 6 catches for 76, 49, and 51 receiving yards in the first three games of the season. With a gamescript that will likely force them to throw the ball, I expect Johnson to continue to carry a very heavy workload for the Saints.