Despite not signing with the team until the NFL season was already underway, Quinshon Judkins has already taken over the backfield. The rookie has totalled 32 touches, which is more than both Jerome Ford (22) and Dylan Sampson (28), even without playing in week one. His snap share also doubled from week two to week three, and that workload has produced games of 61 and 94 rush yards.

Judkins now gets to face a Detroit Lions defence that is allowing 99 rushing yards per game. Given the strength of the Browns' defence, I expect them to keep this game somewhat close, just as they did against Green Bay, which will allow Judkins to keep pounding the rock. The Lions have also allowed the 10th most explosive runs this season, so Judkins could hit this number in just a couple of plays.

This play leans heavily into the dominance of the Cleveland Browns' run defence, which is allowing just 57.3 rushing yards per game. They’ve held some elite running backs to remarkably low yardage totals, including Derrick Henry to 23 and Josh Jacobs to 30. In fact, the most rushing yards they’ve allowed to a single running back is 43 to Chase Brown in week one.

As a result, I expect the Lions to have to lean on the passing game a lot more. In week one against the Packers, who have an equally strong run defence, Gibbs managed just 19 rushing yards. However, he caught 10 passes. Even in the two other games this season, where he’s had much more success on the ground, he has tallied at least three receptions.

Despite all the talk about how good this Cleveland Browns defence is, it’s important to remember that the Lions' offense might be just as good by comparison. They’re averaging 34.3 points per game, and Jared Goff has thrown seven touchdown passes in three games. Four of those touchdowns have been caught by Amon-Ra St. Brown.

The Browns have been excellent at stopping the run and haven’t given up more than 225 passing yards to an opposing quarterback yet, but they have allowed a passing touchdown in every game this season, including four to Lamar Jackson. St. Brown is Goff’s go-to guy in the red zone, and I expect him to continue his great touchdown streak here.

Despite their great defensive success, the Browns have really struggled on offence, particularly in the passing game. Joe Flacco has thrown four interceptions in three games this season, but he’s certainly not afraid to throw the ball. The veteran quarterback is averaging 42 pass attempts per game. Given the strength of the Lions' offence, and their status as heavy favourites in this game, I don’t expect this passing volume to decrease.

David Njoku is one beneficiary of this gunslinging mentality, seeing six targets per game. He’s averaging over 44 receiving yards per game since the start of last season, and the Lions have given up the third most receiving yards in that time. Njoku also hasn’t dipped below 37 yards so far this season, despite the emergence of fellow tight end Harold Fannin.