After a fine run of unbeaten form stretching back to the start of November, United fell to a last minute defeat away at Arsenal. In a widely anticipated game in the title race, United and Arsenal traded punch for punch and were excellent until the away side sat in for a point for the last 20 minutes. Eventually the pressure tolled and Nketiah was able to flick home for a 3-2 win.

Despite this defeat, United have come on leaps and bounds recently with star players such as Rashford and Fernandes hitting form. Couple that with the brilliance of Casemiro, Martinez and Varane and United have an excellent core for the future. Manager Erik ten Hag has implemented his philosophy with an authoritative approach and the results are showing through as they sit inside the top 4.

There was brief optimism around Old Trafford that United could compete for the title. After Arsenal effectively crushed those dreams on Sunday, this is far and away the competition United have the best chance at bringing silverware home from. Casemiro should come back into the frame after suspension at the Emirates alongside Fred, while the front 4 should remain as strong as ever. Expect United to take the first leg here @ odds of 1.67.

Portuguese maestro, Bruno Fernandes, is starting to return to the form he found at the start of his Manchester United days. Ten Hag has rediscovered the number 8’s best from with a goal contribution in each of his last 3 games and I’m backing him to do similar today.

A somewhat controversial goal saw Fernandes equalise in the derby for United before he found the top corner away at Palace. Although United’s first goal at Arsenal was all Marcus Rashford’s brilliance, Fernandes was the architect and provided the assist, his 4th of the season in the league. Half of Fernandes’ goal contributions have come on the road in the Prem this season, including 3 in his last 4 travels.

It is clear to me that Fernandes has far more freedom now under ten Hag and is seeing the ball in better areas. Away at Palace he registered 7 touches in the area and 4 each in his two travels prior, raising his season average to 3. For context, when Fernandes had 26 PL contributions in a season, he averaged just 2.75 touches in the box. Last season, this number was just 2.35. The manager’s system has allowed Fernandes freedom to progress with the ball and we are finally starting to see the benefits.

Swiss international Remo Freuler will be the anchor of Forest’s midfield on Wednesday night at the City Ground. Forest a traditionally not a possession heavy side, which should see United take control of the ball and dominate possession. As mentioned before, Fernandes and co. have been given more freedom which sees United naturally possess the ball in higher regions of the pitch. This should see Freuler more exposed than a holding midfielder naturally is to committing fouls.

Per my cheat sheet, Freuler averages 1.06 fouls per 90 this season, but across his career he averages a higher 1.39. 9 of his 15 PL fouls this season have come at home as Forest feel free to play slightly more expansively with the home crowd cheering them on. Danilo and Mangala may be pressed onto Fred and Casemiro to limit their time on the ball, exposing Freuler one on one. He has committed 2 fouls against Chelsea, Palace and Villa at home who all played a 4-2-3-1 with over 60% possession. With Weghorst’s physicality occupying the centre half pairing, this should further isolate Freuler against the quality of Fernandes and I expect him to bring Fernandes down at least twice.