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Nottingham Forest v Southampton
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Kick Off: Sunday 19th January at 14:00
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Competition: Premier League
Nottingham Forest host bottom-of-the-league Southampton in a clash that has all the ingredients for a decisive home victory. Forest’s unbeaten streak of 8 matches across all competitions (7W, 1D) and Southampton’s poor away form creates a narrative favouring Forest’s dominance.
⭐ Nottingham Forest v Southampton Best Bet
Confidence is sky-high for Nottingham Forest as they enter this fixture on an 8-game unbeaten streak across all competitions (7W, 1D). Sitting among the Premier League elite alongside Arsenal and Liverpool, Forest’s title challenge looks increasingly credible.
A standout feature of their success has been their defensive solidity, with the league’s 3rd-best defence conceding just 0.95 goals per game. At the City Ground, this drops further to 0.8 goals per game, they are 1 of the most difficult sides to break down. Their resilience was on full display in midweek against Liverpool, where Forest weathered 23 shots and 71% opposition possession to secure a hard-fought 1-1 draw.
In stark contrast, Southampton’s struggles persist. They own the league’s weakest attack, averaging just 0.62 goals per game and 0.55 away from home. Saints remain winless on the road in the league, earning just 2 points from 11 matches, a dire record that heavily favours Forest.
🟢 Nottingham Forest v Southampton #WhatOddsPaddy Tip
For those seeking a bold, longer-odds selection for Sunday’s clash between Nottingham Forest and Southampton, this #WhatOddsPaddy bet offers intriguing value.
Chris Wood to Score a Hat-Trick: The most challenging component of this bet is backing Chris Wood to score a hat-trick — a feat he has not yet achieved this season. However, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest it’s a plausible outcome, particularly against a Southampton side plagued by defensive frailties.
Wood has been Forest’s standout performer in attack this season, netting 13 goals – 9 more than the next highest scorer in Morgan Gibbs-White. His clinical nature is underscored by his impressive overperformance against an xG of 7.35, almost doubling his expected tally. Scoring once in every 3 shots, Wood’s efficiency is remarkable, if a little unsustainable – but at 40/1 we’re happy to take this on.
Southampton’s defensive woes further bolster the case for this selection. The Saints have conceded 2 goals per game on the road and allowed 3 or more goals in 4 away matches this season. They also average 17.55 shots against per game in away fixtures, meaning Wood would only need around 50% of those opportunities to complete the required 9 shots for a likely hat-trick based on his conversion rate.
Forest’s capability to create chances for Wood is evident in their attacking fluidity. While they’ve scored 3 goals in only 4 matches this season, Wood has consistently contributed, even registering a brace in their 3-1 victory over Leicester. Against a Southampton side that has kept just 1 clean sheet in 13 away games across all competitions, the odds of Wood delivering a prolific display are greatly enhanced.
Forest to Win Each Half: If Chris Wood does indeed score a hat-trick, it’s almost inevitable that Forest will win each half. Scoring 3 goals in a single half is extremely rare, meaning Wood’s strikes are likely to be spread across both periods, supporting the expectation of Forest leading in both halves.
Southampton’s dismal away record makes this part of the bet even more likely. The Saints have managed to win just 1 of 22 halves of football away from home in the league this season – a solitary achievement in their recent outing against Manchester United. In contrast, Forest have been dominant at the City Ground, winning 6 of their last 8 games across all competitions, often exerting control across both halves.
👕 Nottingham Forest v Southampton Predicted XI
🔍 Nottingham Forest v Southampton Players to Watch
🔴 Nicolas Dominguez
Nicolás Domínguez’s aggressive midfield style makes him a prime candidate for disciplinary action. Despite limited game time this season, Domínguez has already accumulated 7 yellow cards — the most in the Forest squad. Averaging just 1.05 fouls per game, his challenges are often forceful and mistimed, drawing the referee’s attention.
Earlier this season, Domínguez managed to pick up a booking during a mere 15-minute cameo against Southampton, showcasing his physicality in key moments. Should he feature in this clash, his combative tendencies make this selection highly probable.
⚪ Flynn Downes
Flynn Downes embodies Southampton’s frustration and defensive frailties. The defensive midfielder is the league’s most carded player, with 8 yellow cards this season in the league, tallying to 9 in all competitions. His ill-discipline has been particularly evident in recent matches, earning bookings in 5 of his last 7 games.
Downes’ role as a defensive disruptor often leaves him exposed under pressure, a scenario likely to repeat itself against Forest. With Southampton likely to spend significant portions of the match chasing possession, Downes is a strong candidate to add to his tally of yellow cards.
📂 Nottingham Forest v Southampton Cheat Sheet
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💻 Nottingham Forest v Southampton Form and Tactics
Nottingham Forest are enjoying a remarkable campaign, sitting 3rd in the Premier League, just 6 points behind leaders Liverpool. This is their highest league position since their Division 1 triumph in the 1997/98 season.
Defensive resilience has been the cornerstone of their success, with Forest boasting the league’s 3rd-best defence, conceding just 0.95 goals per game. At home, this record improves further, with Forest allowing only 0.8 goals per game. Their 9 clean sheets this season are the most in the league, highlighting their formidable defensive setup.
Having already beaten Southampton at St. Mary’s earlier this season, Forest will look to replicate that performance on home turf. Expect a disciplined defensive setup and a willingness to dominate possession, a rare approach for Forest but 1 that will yield numerous attacking opportunities against a struggling Saints side.
Southampton’s woes continue as they remain rooted to the bottom of the table, a staggering 10 points adrift of safety. With only 1 win in their last 13 matches across all competitions — including 10 defeats — Saints are in dire straits.
Their away record is even more concerning, with no wins and just 2 draws from 11 matches, making them the league’s worst-performing away team.
Creativity and execution have been Southampton’s Achilles’ heel. Despite averaging 52.1% possession per game, they rank 18th in big chances created, with just 38 this season. They average a meagre 3 shots on target per game and have conceded a league-high 50.6 xG — a staggering 7.9 xG more than the next-worst team.
With just 1 point from their last 8 league games, Southampton’s lack of firepower and defensive vulnerabilities make them easy prey for an in-form Forest side.
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🏁 Nottingham Forest v Southampton Ref Watch
- Referee: Anthony Taylor
| Average Cards (Y / R) | 3.47 / 0.11 |
| Fouls Given | 21.79 |
| Penalties | 0.47 |
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* We recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
