Bayern’s recent record leaves little doubt that goals should flow in Cyprus. They have won their last eight competitive fixtures by an aggregate score of 30-7, averaging 3.75 goals per game this season and hitting three or more in all but one match.

In all eight outings so far this campaign, this line has landed, with seven producing at least four goals. Their attacking style is relentless, with short passing combinations and sustained possession in the opposition half generating high volumes of chances.

Pafos have shown resilience in their domestic league, conceding only two goals in five matches, but they are stepping into uncharted territory here. Defending deep against Bayern often delays rather than prevents the inevitable, as the Germans’ patience, ability to shoot from range and efficiency in tight spaces ensures pressure eventually translates into goals. Pafos stood firm to draw their UCL opener 0-0 at Olympiacos despite going down to 10 men in the 26th minute.

Whether you take over 2.5 match goals or Bayern team goals, the angle remains the same, and the expectation is that the visitors clear the line on their own, regardless of how much Pafos contribute.

Just as goals flow, so too do corners, and Bayern’s style of play almost guarantees volume in this market. They average 5.71 corners per game this season and have registered five or more in each of their last seven matches. In fact, having registered at least 10 shots on target in all but one match this season, naturally correlates with strong corner counts.

heir approach is possession-heavy, to create repeated scenarios where shots will be saved or blocked by surrounding defenders. Against weaker opposition, Bayern often pin teams inside their own box, forcing hurried defending that adds further value to this line.

Pafos have been resilient domestically but are yet to face this level of sustained territorial pressure. Their likely deep defensive block will only invite Bayern to circulate the ball wide, deliver frequent crosses and further boost corner potential. This line is set low given the gulf in quality, and with Bayern’s consistency in this metric, the expectation is that it lands comfortably once more.

I like the over 7.5 total line which a strong feeling that Bayern can cover it on their own if Pafos don’t contribute, given our expectations for the flow of the game and territorial dominance from the visitors.

With his brace on Friday night, Harry Kane broke yet another record by becoming the fastest player to reach 100 club goals for a top five league side this century, achieving the milestone in just 104 games. Narrowly quicker than Erling Haaland achieved the same feat at Man City, and Cristiano Ronaldo at Real Madrid.

His current form is extraordinary, scoring nine goals in his last four games and 15 already this season. Bayern’s system, built around short passing combinations and controlling the opposition half, is designed to funnel chances into the box, where Kane’s movement, positioning and composure make him ruthless. He also carries multiple routes to goal; finishing crosses, linking one-twos around the penalty spot, striking from range, as well as being the designated penalty taker. Even if Bayern rotate elsewhere with a trip to Frankfurt on Saturday in the Bundesliga, Kane is unlikely to be rested given his importance.

Simply put, Kane continues to be inevitable, and with Bayern expected to dominate possession and territory, his movement in the box and clinical finishing make this market an obvious, yet sensible, angle into the encounter.

Whoever starts wide for Bayern, the threat is the same, with pace, trickery and ball carrying ability that draws fouls consistently. Luis Diaz (1.03 fouls won per 90), Michael Olise (1.53) and Lennart Karl (2.86) all rank as foul magnets, meaning full backs will be under constant pressure.

Ken Sema is expected to start at left back, and although his numbers are limited to European competition, he averages 1.72 fouls per 90. In the three matches he has played 64 minutes or more, his returns have been two, one and two fouls, which aligns well with this angle.

Pafos’ likely defensive shape, and sustained Bayern attacking pressure, will pin Sema deep and force him into repeated one-on-one duels. In these situations, he will have little choice but to disrupt play. Even if he avoids a card, one foul looks almost inevitable given the matchup and Bayern’s overwhelming attacking presence.