These two AFC North rivals meet on Sunday and it’s the Steelers who should secure the W and extend their lead at the top of the division. They’ve won three of four games so far and that’s largely based on their defense that is keeping them in games, and is ranked 12th in defensive DVOA.

The Steelers have the experience and knowledge of Aaron Rodgers under centre and while he isn’t an elite quarterback anymore, he’s more than capable of acting as a strong game manager in this league and stewarding this Steelers offense throughout games. He’s thrown an average of two touchdowns passes per game and has looked good so far.

Meanwhile, the Browns are on their second quarterback with rookie Dillion Gabriel starting and Joe Flacco having left the team. Gabriel looked reasonable in his first start, with 190 yards and two touchdowns, but he’s raw and faces a tough ask against the Steelers pass rush. This Browns’ offense is almost entirely built on rookies and it’s clear that they’re already looking forward to next season. The Steelers win this on home soil with ease in my opinion.

The Browns have been very strong against the run this season, giving up the fewest rushing yards per game on average with just 75.6. That said, we’re taken Jaylen Warren to cover the 15+ receiving yard line. Warren is a small, shifty running back, but in truth he excels in the passing game, not running between the tackles.

With that in mind, we’re betting on him showcasing his ability in the passing game and getting 15+ receiving yards. This is a number that he’s covered in the three games that he’s played so far.

He missed Week Four with injury but with the Steelers having the bye last week, it’s given Warren more time to get fit and healthy and he comes into this fresh. He’s caught 11 of 12 passes in three games played this campaign and has averaged 12.9 receiving yards per catch.

The Steelers will do their best to get the ball in Warren’s hands in the open field and with his targets increasing every single week so far, we can be confident that the team will look to utilise him through the air.

I’m doubling down on Jaylen Warren here. He’s only found the endzone once this season, although it’s worth remembering that due to the bye and injury he’s only played three games. 

We’ve already touched upon his role increasing in the passing game with him going from two targets in Week One, to four targets and then finally to six targets in Week Three. We also saw his rushing attempts increase too, with a season-high of 18 in his last game.

With that kind of volume he’s a great bet to score in this game, despite the Browns’ strength against the run.

The Steelers have given up an average of 62.5 receiving yards per game to tight ends and the Browns' rookie Fannin is already one of the best pass catchers on the Browns' roster.

Fannin has become an integral part of this offense already and has caught 21 of his 28 targets through the first five games. He’s averaging 34.6 receiving yards per game, we only need him to get 20 here.

We also need to factor in that the Browns are likely to be losing this game, that means that we’re going to see Gabriel throwing the ball a lot and trying to get his team into the game. The more throws that Gabriel takes, the more likely Fannin is to cover this line.