Looking at Nunes’ foul count suggests that he’s not massively prolific when it comes to giving away free-kicks, with 0.54 per 90 in the Premier League this season, but the right-back steadily gives away one or two fouls each game. He’s committed at least one foul in seven of his last 11 appearances for City, and has been booked in three of his last five.

The real motivation behind this bet is that he will be going head-to-head with Xavi Simons, who has won at least two free kicks in five of his last six Premier League matches and in nine of his last 10 overall. The exception came against Liverpool, when he played only 32 minutes. Simons has also been fouled at least once in 10 of his 12 Premier League starts.

With Spurs missing important attacking players in Richarlison, James Maddison and Mohammed Kudus, Simons is likely to see a huge amount of the ball. He’s had more than 50 passes received in each of the last two games, increasing the chances of him drawing a foul.

Across all competitions this season, only Richarlison has had more shots for Tottenham than Xavi Simons’ 42. He is averaging 2.08 per 90 minutes and the evidence points to him being on a steady upward trajectory in this stat. Simons has had 15 shots across his last five matches for Spurs, having at least two in each game. It's also worth noting that he has hit the target in four of the last five, which is on offer at 1.90.

City are looking fragile defensively at the moment, giving up at least 10 shots in each of their past three games against Premier League opponents, compared to a season average of 9.35 per game. Wolves – 2nd lowest shooters in the league this season – managed 11 last week. Simons is Spurs’ main attacking outlet and will carry the threat here.

Spurs do love to get stuck in. They’re set up to be combative, especially in the middle of the park, and they’ve added to that with the signing of Connor Gallagher, who is a persistent fouler and a card magnet. Spurs have averaged 2.70 team cards per game this season, which rises to a huge 3.27 on home soil, where they’ve struggled to deal with the pressure of their own fans throughout this season.

Overall, Spurs have landed this selection in 82% of their matches this season, and that rises to 91% when playing at home. City aren’t the best in the league at drawing fouls, particularly away, where opponents have averaged 1.36 cards. However, Spurs did pick up four in their victory at the Etihad earlier this season, in fact, cards have been common in this fixture for a long time, especially for Spurs. They have received at least two cards in the last 16 head-to-head meetings.

Guardiola made a clear move at the start of the season to add another depth to his Man City team, as he brought in players who were more adept at carrying the ball, and dominating 1v1 situations, and Semenyo’s addition looks a perfect fit to continue this. He’s started well under Pep, picking up three goals and an assist across his four appearances in all competitions so far.

He’s also hit the target in each match so far, excluding the disappointing defeat to Man United, where City were admittedly outclassed. He had three shots, with two on target last time out against Wolves, and throughout the Premier League season he has been so consistent.

He was averaging 1.35 SoT per 90 at Bournemouth, and his 27 shots on target this campaign for them remains the highest in their squad by 12. He’s played 22 times in the Premier League this season, all being 90 minutes or just shy of that. He has hit the target at least once in 18 of them. A nice added bonus is that he’s landed this selection twice already against Spurs this season, and has already scored against them.