It all comes down to the price. Real went off at 1.73 before losing 4-2 to Benfica at the end of the league phase.

In the era of too many games, motivation plays a bigger part, Benfica had more on the line. They were heading out of the competition, Real only had the top eight to play for, they missed out and have the cushion of two more games of UCL TV exposure.

We’re getting 1.83 on the Real win for this one, compared to 1.73 just a few weeks ago. At this stage of the competition last term, Real beat Man City 6-3 on aggregate - a tougher assignment.

Since losing to Benfica, Real have won three in a row, scoring eight in that trio, they’ve won 3/4 UCL away games this season.

Benfica have drawn 0-0 at Tondela and only beat sides of the calibre of Alverca and Santa Clara 2-1.

Real Madrid have looked like a very frustrated side to me this season, and that becomes even more evident when you look at their card numbers in the Champions League this term.

Only Villarreal and Copenhagen (19) picked up more yellow cards than Real Madrid (18) in the league phase of the Champions League, working out to an average of 2.25 cards per game.

This is slightly skewed by Real Madrid picking up seven yellow cards and two red cards against Benfica last week, but this shows the tenacity which could be present from the away side in this particular clash.

Real Madrid have picked up 2+ cards in five of their eight Champions League matches this term, with the only away game from those three matches being their 5-0 win over Kairat Almaty - a game that had few redeeming qualities in terms of being a competitive contest.

I think Jose Mourinho and Benfica will have a plan to frustrate Real Madrid again here, with 2+ cards for Alvaro Arbeloa’s side looking to be a convincing angle for this first leg clash.

Arda Guler has been a trusted member of the squad by Alvaro Arbeloa in the absence of Jude Bellingham. He’s started seven of the eight games that Arbeloa has taken charge of, and with Bellingham expected to be sidelined for this clash, he should earn a starting role.

Guler is very strong when it comes to winning fouls, he was hauled down once in the meeting between the sides a few weeks ago and has won 11 fouls across his seven starts in the Champions League this season (1.78 per 90). Guler also maintains a solid foul won average of 1.23 fouls won per 90 in La Liga this term, so it is a consistent part of his game which can come to the fore here.

I particularly like this angle due to the tenacity of Benfica’s midfield. Mourinho likes to keep that part of the pitch very congested, so Guler will have a variety of opponents in this clash looking to bring him down. Guler’s main opponents here should be Enzo Barrenchea and Leandro Barreiro with the pair combining to commit 2.63 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this term.

Otamendi, now 38, is giving away more fouls with age. He’s mistiming challenges more often as he edges towards retirement. Over the last three seasons of Champions League action, he’s gone from 0.67 fouls per 90 to 1.00 fouls per 90 to 1.38 fouls per 90 this term.

He committed 11 fouls across eight league phase games; he made three fouls on one of those occasions and four on another.

I don’t think he’s got the athleticism to legally deal with this Real frontline. Vinicius Junior has won 1.57 fouls per 90 in the UCL this term, Kylian Mbappe is at 1.30 and Arda Guler is at 1.78.

I think Mourinho looks to sit in here; they only had 33% possession when they beat Real 4-2. That’s going to give Real loads of territory and force Otamendi to defend in tight spaces.