On May 24, 2015, Tondela paid a visit to eighth-placed Freamunde in the final match of the Segunda Liga season, with the hosts going down to 10 men within 11 minutes as Portuguese defender Tiago Mesquita picked up two bookings in quick succession. Freamunde nevertheless battled admirably and took the lead in the 69th minute via Guinea-Bissau striker Ansumanem, but they were reduced to 9 men as Portuguese defender Huguinho picked up a second yellow in the 92nd minute. Just two minutes later, the diminutive Portuguese forward André Carvalhas scored the equalizer for Tondela, a goal that would see them finish top of the second division with 81 points, one point above União Madeira, Chaves, and Covilhã, and secure promotion to the top-flight of Portuguese football for the first time in the club’s 82-year-history.

Tondela would struggle in their start to life in the Primeira, losing 21 of their first 29 matches in all competitions before taking on José Peseiro’s Porto at the Estádio de Dragão on April 4, 2016. Veteran Brazilian midfielder Luis Alberto gave Tondela the lead at the hour-mark, and despite Porto registering 22 shots in comparison to Tondela’s 9 and 7 shots on target to Tondela’s 1, the Auriverdes held on for an unforgettable victory in Porto thanks to a stellar performance by their 24-year-old goalkeeper Cláudio Ramos, who pulled off 8 saves, three clearances and three punches and outshined his opponent in goal: Iker Casillas.

They would ride the momentum with four victories and one draw in their next six to end their inaugural season in the top-flight and finish one point above fellow promoted side União Madeira, who were relegated alongside Académica to the second tier. The Auriverdes narrowly avoided the drop in the following years thanks in large part to Ramos, who emerged as one of the Primeira’s most consistent and underrated goalkeepers at the Estádio João Cardoso before leaving for Porto on a free transfer in the summer of 2020 to replace the retiring Casillas. Ramos has been forced to settle for third-choice status behind Diogo Costa and Agustín Marchesín, making his Porto debut on December 15 in a 1-0 win against Rio Ave in the Taça da Liga before debuting in the league six months later in a 2-0 win over Estoril. Despite the fact that Porto had sealed the league title a week earlier after beating Benfica 1-0 at the Luz, Sérgio Conceição played his first-choice team, with the sole exception being Ramos in the place of Costa between the sticks. In doing so, Ramos won the second trophy of his professional career, being crowned champion of Portugal just seven years after winning the Segunda with the Auriverdes. He would make his league debut for Porto at the Dragão with the knowledge that Tondela, the club he spent eight years at, won two Player of the Year awards, and racked up the most appearances in club history with 255, 84 more than second-placed Jhon Murillo, was getting relegated.

Whilst Tondela managed to finish 12th in 2020/21 thanks in large part to Spanish striker Mario González’s 14 goals and 2 assists, they would notice the effects of Ramos’ departure, conceding 57 goals in 34 games. Only one team conceded more: Nacional (59), who finished bottom of the table with 25 points, six points above Farense and nine above Rio Ave, both of whom were relegated – Rio Ave would win the championship the following year to bounce back to the top-flight. González, 26, returned from his impressive loan spell at Tondela and joined Braga on a permanent deal, ending an eight-year spell at Villarreal before struggling to adapt to Carlos Carvalhal’s side and returning to his homeland and joining second-tier side Tenerife, scoring 5 goals in 14 appearances. The Spaniard’s departure has perhaps been the straw that broke the camel’s back: Tondela finished 17th and ended a six-year-spell in the first division. To prep you for Tondela’s final chapter of their underdog story, I’ve selected my top 3 Bet Builder Picks and a Cheat Sheet.

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Porto v Tondela Bet Builder Tips

Porto to Win (-1)

Needing a win to guarantee their status in the relegation play-off two-legged match, Tondela faced off against Boavista at home in a triple-header on Saturday. Moreirense found themselves two goals up within 15 minutes at home after their opponents Vizela were reduced to 10 men, with Derik Lacerda adding a third before halftime to snatch a 4-1 win, a result that made the other result, a 0-0 draw between Belenenses-SAD and Arouca, effectively meaningless; B-SAD needed Moreirense to draw or lose in order to have a chance of staying up. And yet, despite taking the lead on two occasions, Tondela were once again unable to get it over the finish line in a 2-2 draw against Boavista.

Whilst they were edged by Nacional as the league’s worst defense last season, they blew the competition out of the water this time around: they’ve conceded 67 goals, nine more than Vizela, 12 more than B-SAD, and 13 more than Arouca. Their opponents, FC Porto, have blown the competition out of the water in a different respect: they’ve ended the season with 91 points – the most in the history of the Primeira – and they’ve managed the longest unbeaten streak in the history of Europe’s top six leagues with 58 league matches, level with Fabio Capello’s Milan, and have the league’s best defense with 22 goals conceded, one fewer than Sporting and eight fewer than Benfica. With 86 goals scored, they’ve finished with 13 more than Sporting and eight more than Benfica. It has been a historic campaign for Sérgio Conceição’s side, who’ll be looking to cap it off with their second domestic double in three years. It will be the final match for 27-year-old Congolese defender Chancel Mbemba, who will leave on a free transfer after a four-season spell that has seen him score a brace in the 2020 Taça de Portugal Final to defeat Benfica in Coimbra behind closed doors, register 137 appearances and become and become one of Europe’s most imperious central defensive pairings alongside Pepe, 12 years his senior. He’ll be looking to ride off into the sunset with one last trophy before starting the next chapter of his career. 

I’m not picking just Porto to win here; I’m picking them to win by two or more goals, something that Tondela have grown accustomed to this season. A week before the heartbreaking draw against Boavista, Tondela had lost 3-0 at Gil Vicente to give the Gilistas their first victory since March 13 – that same day, Porto defeated Tondela 4-0, and four weeks later, their title competitors Sporting would beat Tondela 3-1. The Auriverdes began February with a 3-1 loss to Benfica, they ended 2021 with a 3-0 loss to Gil, and previous match-ups this season saw them lose 5-2 to Vitória, lose 2-0 to Sporting, lose 3-1 to Braga and Porto, and lose 3-0 to Portimonense. This could be one of the most lopsided cup finals in recent memory, and I expect the scoreline to reflect that at odds of 1.57.

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Mehdi Taremi to Score 2 or More Goals

After beating Porto at the Dragão, Tondela would secure a 0-0 draw at home against Nuno Espírito Santo’s side on September 18, 2016, but when they faced off five months later, Porto went ahead on the cusp of halftime via a penalty goal from André Silva after Yordan Osorio fouled him and was given a booking – just a minute later, the Venezuelan saw yellow for the second time and received his marching orders, and Porto would go on to secure a 4-0 win via second-half goals from Rúben Neves, Tiquinho Soares and Diogo Jota. They would proceed to win their next five meetings against the Auriverdes whilst keeping five clean sheets, before winning 3-1 at Tondela on July 9, 2020. Five months later, Mehdi Taremi, who arrived from Rio Ave in the summer after a promising debut campaign in European football, opened the scoring within four minutes, with João Mendes equalizing in the 20th minute and Moussa Marega retaining Porto’s lead four minutes later to secure a 2-1 victory in the Taça de Portugal – Porto would go on to beat Nacional and Gil Vicente before losing to eventual champions Braga in the semifinals.

When they faced off on April 10, 2021 in Tondela, fellow summer arrival Toni Martínez opened the scoring for Porto in the 19th minute before being subbed off for Luis Díaz in the 67th minute. Seven minutes later, Taremi would come on for fellow summer arrival Evanilson and needed just nine minutes to double Porto’s lead and secure a 2-0 win. Porto returned to the Estádio João Cardoso for what could be their final trip in quite some time on October 23, with Brazilian left back Neto Borges opening the scoring within four minutes for the Auriverdes and giving them a lead that would last just 15 minutes before Taremi found the back of the net. Things would go from bad to worse for Tondela as Iker Undabarrena saw red at the half-hour mark, with Taremi scoring again at the cusp of halftime before completing his hat-trick in the 79th minute in a 4-1 victory.

The Iranian striker once again found the back of the net on the stroke of the interval in their most recent match-up on March 13 with a penalty goal, and once again, a Spaniard was sent off for Tondela, this time Manu Hernando in the 67th minute. Six minutes later, Wenderson Galeno doubling Porto’s lead shortly after coming on as a substitute, whilst fellow subs Fábio Vieira and Francisco Conceição adding goals in the following six minutes to secure a 4-0 win. It would be Spanish manager Pako Ayestarán’s final match in charge of Tondela after a two-year spell, with Nuno Campos taking over. Having previously served as Paulo Fonseca’s assistant, Campos took his first managerial job on October 7 but lasted just nine matches before being sacked with Santa Clara 16th in the table. It has been an even worse return for Campos, 47, at Tondela – having won three and drawn once in nine in the Azores, he has picked up one win and five draws in his first, and likely final nine matches at the club. 

 It looks set to be a goal-fest in Jamor as the league’s best attack takes on the league’s worst defense, and I’ll be damned if Taremi isn’t joining in on the party. With 24 goals and 17 assists in all competitions, it has been another superb campaign for the 29-year-old, and I’m backing him to find the back of the net against Tondela for the sixth straight match. What’s more, I’m backing him to score on two or more occasions, just as he did in Porto’s 4-2 win against Vizela on April 30 or their 7-0 win against Portimonense on April 16. This will be Taremi’s first cup final in Europe and his first since his Al-Gharafa side beat Al-Duhail in the Qatar Stars Cup Final on January 31, 2019. Big players rise to big occasions, and I’m expecting Taremi to give Tondela a nice going-away present as they prepare for what could be a long, arduous road in the second division. To find the net at least twice Taremi is available for odds of 4.5.

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Over 2.5 Goals

Only Aves (68) in 2019/20, and Nacional (73) in 2018/19 ) have conceded more than Tondela’s 67 in the past six years since the Auriverdes made their top-flight debut. They have arguably been hit more by Ramos’ departure in goal and Pedro Trigueira and Babacar Niasse’s struggles between the sticks than González’s – Tondela’s 41 goals scored are the most in the bottom-half; only 8th-placed Famalicão (45), 6th-placed Vitória (50), 5th-placed Gil Vicente (47) and 4th-placed Braga (52) have scored more outside of the Big Three. Whilst the 34-year-old Portuguese Trigueira has started in the league, the Senegal-born Mauritania international Niasse has been the go-to choice in the Taça de Portugal, which began on October 16 in a 2-1 win at fourth-tier A.D. Camacha, with Manu Hernando and Gabriel Feitosa Fraga scoring for either side within six minutes and Salvador Agra scoring a 98th-winner for Pako Ayestarán’s side, with Camacha’s Vítor Abreu promptly seeing red in the wake of the goal. 

This would be the second time in three matches that Tondela’s opponents saw red, but the following match would see Tondela fall to 10 men in a 3-1 loss to Porto, before losing 2-0 to Arouca and beating Marítimo 4-2, both of which saw their opponents reduced to 10 men at some point in the match. Tondela edged second-tier ​​Leixões S.C. 3-1 on November 22 before losing 2-0 to Sporting in the league and losing 5-2 to Vitória in a match that saw the visitors take a two-goal lead within a half-hour, only for Vitória to equalize before the break via two penalties. Once again, Tondela were their own worst enemy: Manu Hernando was sent off in the 61th minute with Marcus Edwards breaking the deadlock a minute later before completing a brace, whilst Ruben Lameiras would add to the humiliation in the dying minutes. After losing 1-0 to Paços de Ferreira via a late penalty from Denílson, Tondela beat Estoril Praia 3-1, with the newly promoted side opening the scoring early on via the spot and Tiago Dantas equalizing before the break for Tondela and second-half goals from Juan Manuel Bosellli and Daniel dos Anjos securing their progression to the next round.

They defeated 10-man Rio Ave 1-0 on January 12 thanks to an extra time goal from Renat Dadashov, but they were unable to translate heir knockout tournament success into league play, drawing 2-2 to Santa Clara, losing 3-2 to Vizela, beating 10-man Portimonense 2-1, and losing four out of four in February. After beating second-tier Mafra 3-0 in the first leg of the Taça de Portugal semifinals on March 3, Tondela drew 1-1 to B-SAD, lost 0-4 to Porto, drew 2-2 to Arouca, before returning from the final international break of the campaign with a 3-1 win at Marítimo. A 3-1 loss to Sporting and a 2-0 loss to Moreirense followed, which Tondela holding onto a 1-1 draw in the second leg vs. Mafra to secure their first national cup final in the club’s 88-year history.

They would follow that up with a 1-1 draw to Vitória de Guimarães and a 1-1 draw to Paços de Ferreira, the latter of which saw Salvador Agra open the scoring within a half-hour, Rafael Barbosa spurn a chance to double the lead from an empty net, and substitute Lucas Silva score an equalizer for the Beavers in the 92nd minute, with Modibo Sagnan being sent off in the aftermath. Tondela’s streak of 1-1 draws came to an end on May 8 at Gil Vicente; Marcelo Alves was sent off in the 39th minute and Gil Vicente took advantage with second-half goals from Kanya Fujimoto and a brace from Samuel Lino to secure a 3-0 win, their first win since March 13, before following it up with a 2-2 draw to Boavista. The prior season had seen Gil finished three points above Tondela in 11th place – this season, they finished fifth to secure European football for the first time in club history. Only three teams in the Primeira have combined for over 100 goals this season – Porto (86 goals scored + 22 conceded = 108), Benfica (78 goals scored + 30 conceded = 108), and Tondela (41 goals scored + 67 conceded = 108). I’m expecting goals aplenty in Jamor in what could be one of the most lop-sided cup finals in recent memory priced at 1.44.

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Sign up to Paddy Power and get a full refund if your first bet loses. Grab an account through the offer below and place £30 on the 5/1 Porto v Tondela Bet Builder. Here are the two possible outcomes:

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets *

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Predicted Line-ups

Porto predicted XI (4-4-2) : Marchesin; Joao Mario Mbemba Pepe Zaidu; Otavio Votinha Grujic Pepe; Evanilson Taremi

Tondela predicted XI (3-4-3) : Niasse; Quaresma Manu Sagnan; Almeida Pedro Augusto Undabarrena Neto Borges; Agra Boselli Barbosa

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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *

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How to watch Porto v Tondela in The Taca de Portugal

📅   When is Porto v Tondela? / Sunday, 22nd May 2022, 17:15
🏟   Where is Porto v Tondela? / Estádio Nacional (Lisbon)
📺   What TV channel is Porto v Tondela? / Bet365
🟨   …And who is the referee for Porto v Tondela? / TBC 🇵🇹