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Preston v Aston Villa
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Kick Off: Sunday 30th March at 13:30
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Competition: FA Cup
Preston host Aston Villa in this FA Cup quarter-final as the only non-Premier League side left in the competition. Preston sit in mid-table in the Championship, a bit too far out from the playoffs but also pretty much safe from relegation, which gives them real scope to focus on this competition and reach Wembley against a Villa side that may have other priorities. Preston have seen off Charlton, Wycombe and Burnley to reach this stage of the competition.
This is the first of four fixtures that Aston Villa have over the next 10 days; their squad depth will really be tested with Brighton, Forest and PSG to follow this quarter-final. Aston Villa have seen off West Ham, Tottenham and Cardiff in reaching this stage of the competition and Unai Emery will fancy his chances of lifting the trophy.
⭐ Preston v Aston Villa Best Bet
➡️ Aston Villa to have the Most Shots on Target in Each Half with Paddy Power @ 2.0
There is a massive gap in quality between the Championship and the Premier League which was centre stage in Aston Villa’s 2-0 win over Cardiff in the last round of the cup. This selection comfortably landed with Unai Emery’s side having 10 shots on target to Cardiff’s one. Villa had 25 shots in the game overall to Cardiff’s four, which is a similar disparity we should see in the shot numbers here.
Preston North End have one of the weakest shot on target records in the Championship this season, averaging 3.4 shots on target per game, with only Oxford, Derby and Plymouth managing fewer shots on target per game than Paul Heckingbottom’s side. Preston should struggle with Villa’s quality and depth as Cardiff did in the last round of the cup.
Heckingbottom often goes with a pragmatic approach which is focused on defensive resilience, this should see Villa control the ball for large swathes of this game and keep Preston penned back with little room for the home side to attack the Villa goal unless they catch them on the counter attack or make the most of set pieces.
The depth Villa have added to their attacking line in January has revolutionised the options that Unai Emery has in the final third. The likes of Rashford, Asensio and Malen make Villa a difficult side to stop or even predict how they’ll line up. Villa are averaging 4.2 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season but expect this tally to rise against second tier opposition, as it did in the last round of the cup.
🟢 Preston v Aston Villa #WhatOddsPaddy Tip
Ollie Watkins is the only player in the Villa squad to hit double digits for goals in the Premier League this season. He’s achieved this total whilst averaging 1.48 shots on target per 90.
You would expect this average to increase up against second tier opposition, as it did in Aston Villa’s 2-0 win over Cardiff in the FA Cup in which Watkins had five shots overall, with two of these attempts finding the target.
Aston Villa had 10 shots on target in their win over Cardiff in the last round of the FA Cup, they should be able to get close to that total here or at least hit three shots on target in each half against a Preston side that will look to sit deep and take what chances they have on the counter attack.
Villa’s January reinforcements make them a serious threat in front of goal, with Unai Emery now having the luxury of calling on established attacking players to change the game should he need them.
👕 Preston v Aston Villa Predicted XI
🔍 Preston v Aston Villa Players to Watch
🟣 Marco Asensio
Marco Asensio has hit the ground running for Aston Villa, scoring seven goals across his eight appearances in all competitions for Unai Emery’s side, including scoring both goals in Aston Villa’s 2-0 victory over Cardiff. Asensio’s ability to pick up positions between the lines and provide that final cutting edge is invaluable to a Villa side who have relied on Ollie Watkins to provide the goals this season.
Asensio has scored in each of his last three appearances for Aston Villa, including scoring in both legs of Villa’s triumph over Club Brugge in the Champions League, showcasing his ability to produce at the very highest level.
🟣 Youri Tielemans
Tielemans has been superb in the middle of the park for Aston Villa this season, he’s provided six goal contributions in the Premier League whilst averaging 1.69 fouls won per 90. This average should be set to increase here against a Preston side that will be without the ball for the majority of this tie and committed a notable 21 fouls in their 3-0 win over Burnley in the last round of the cup.
This high foul count is nothing new for Preston, they’re averaging more fouls per game in the Championship than any other side (13.3 per game) and also top the Championship rankings for yellow cards (95), suggesting that they can be quite an aggressive side. This puts Tielemans right in their crosshairs as a player that is very good at protecting the ball and operating in tight spaces.
📂 Preston v Aston Villa Cheat Sheet
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💻 Preston v Aston Villa Form and Tactics
Preston surprised many by comfortably seeing off Burnley in the last round of the cup, but they’ve been pretty unremarkable for large periods of this campaign, which is reflected in their league position (14th). However, it is not unusual to see a side save their best performances for the cup competitions, and Preston have licence to throw everything at this tie with no real chance of promotion or relegation from the second division. Preston’s home record this season is really intriguing; they’ve only lost two of their 19 games at home this season, but 10 of these have ended in draws – more than any other side in the division.
Preston have only lost one of their last five games across all competitions, which came against Sheffield United who are battling at the top of the table. Preston tend to be competitive in games, even when they have lost of late, they tend to be in the game and only lose out by a goal to the opposition. Only two sides have won at Deepdale in the Championship this campaign and although Villa will be a level above any other side that has made the trip this season, Preston can look to this resilience to try and get a foothold in this tie.
Aston Villa have won each of their last five games across all competitions, which has featured games across three different competitions. They saw off Club Brugge over two legs, as well as beating Brentford away from home and seeing off Cardiff in the FA Cup. Villa are primed for a strong end to the season with the depth they’ve added in the January transfer window.
Aston Villa have already seen off two Premier League sides in the FA Cup this season, beating out West Ham and Tottenham to reach this stage of the competition. What could be important here is the fact that this is Villa’s first away game in the FA Cup; this is significant as Villa have struggled on the road all season, winning just five of their 14 away games in the Premier League.
There is also a significant drop off in goals scored (25-16) as well as an unwanted increase in goals conceded (18-27). This will encourage Preston, who don’t have many other factors to cling onto here.
🏁 Preston v Aston Villa Ref Watch
- Referee: Chris Kavanagh
| Average Cards (Y / R) | 5.11 / 0.21 |
| Fouls Given | 21.84 |
| Penalties | 0.16 |
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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