Newcastle’s 4-1 win over PSG last month feels like a distant memory now with Eddie Howe’s side propping up their Champions League group.

Winning is not mathematically required, but it would put them in a strong position ahead of their final group game, at home to Milan in early December.

However, this is probably the toughest test they will face, and tonight’s hosts have been extremely comfortable in their home games so far this campaign. They comfortably beat both Dortmund and Milan, 2-0 and 3-0 respectively, with neither of the visiting sides being able to generate more than 0.7xG across the 90 minutes.

Newcastle will give it more of a go, with those two games coming earlier in the group stage, and being games both sides would have realistically expected to lose, the pressure was not on them in the same way it is for the Magpies.

This could well play into PSG’s hands, with Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele and Goncalo Ramos contributing to what may well be the best counter-attacking unit in world football. Should Newcastle be caught out up the pitch pushing for a goal, they will have three incredibly pacy and technically skilled players running at them.

Bearing in mind the situation both teams find themselves in, Luis Enrique may have the perfect team for the job, with Newcastle’s defence likely needing nothing short of a perfect performance to secure a positive result here. It should also be remembered that Newcastle have won just two of their nine away games in 2023/24.

With the hosts being offered at 1.62 to win, the value on offer is simply too good to pass up. Newcastle may well spring a surprise, but two weak showings on the road in Europe so far suggest they will come up short again here.

Predictions:

🏆 PSG to win @ 1.62

PSG may be dominant in Ligue 1, but defence has never been their strong suit. Across 17 games this season, they have kept just seven clean sheets.

Goals have flown in at both ends in any game featuring the Parisians this season, with 13 of their 17 in all competitions featuring at least three goals. In fact, since their 0-0 draw with Clermont in September, Luis Enrique’s side have seen nine games in a row have three or more goals.

Nine of their 17 games have seen both sides score, and while this does not sound too impressive, it is worth bearing in mind just how much better they are than the vast majority of sides within Ligue 1.

Backing the over 2.5 line for goals also looks a smart play, not least when considering PSG’s recent form. The French side have now won seven of their last eight, scoring three goals in all seven wins, covering this line single-handedly throughout this run.

To be regularly shipping goals against sides significantly weaker than themselves should give Newcastle hope that they can find the net here, as should their four-goal showing in the reverse fixture at St James’ Park.

Newcastle have been better defensively, but they have themselves found the net in 14 of their 20 games in all competitions. Their makeshift backline looks unlikely to manage a clean sheet against one of the best attacking units in world football but backing them to also get on the scoresheet looks a sensible play, and reasonable value considering the likelihood of it occurring.

Predictions:

🥅 Both teams to score @ 1.65

🥅 Over 2.5 goals @ 1.65

Kylian Mbappe of course dominates the shooting stats for PSG, he is the face of the club and his unmatched influence with the decision-makers at the club ensures he essentially gets what he wants.

He offers little value in the shot markets, but his fellow attackers are worth considering, not least Ousmane Dembele. The Frenchman has taken at least a shot in 12 of his 13 starts this season, and his shot volume and accuracy have steadily improved as the season has progressed.

In his last five starts, he has taken two or more shots in four of those games and has managed at least one shot on target in four of those five games too. He racked up two shots on target in recent games against Monaco, Milan and Montpellier, and against an incredibly inexperienced Lewis Hall, could well have a relatively easy night of it at the Parc de Princes here.

Dembele racking up at least a single shot on target looks very good value, but his recent form suggests managing two may not be off the cards and could be worth a look for a higher odds bet builder.

For Newcastle, Anthony Gordon looks to have potential to be a nicely valued option. He may not have had a shot in the reverse fixture, but this was one of just two games out of 15 he has started in which he did not have at least one shot.

His attacking contribution has really stepped up in recent weeks, with three goal contributions in his last three starts, and at least one shot on target in each of the three games. With Newcastle’s Champions League hopes on the line, and so many players out injured, Gordon will have to step up here, and his recent form suggests he can do just that.

Another option is Alexander Isak, the Swede having made his return from injury against Chelsea at the weekend. Isak has only failed to notch a shot on target in three of his 12 starts for Newcastle and Sweden (excluding the game against Dortmund in which he had to be subbed off after 14 minutes), and racked up three shots, two of which on target, in the reverse fixture at St James’.

He looks an excellent option for shots on target, but he also should be considered on the straight shots market, having taken two or more shots in eight of his 12 starts. Like with Gordon, Newcastle’s injury issues means the goal load falls squarely on Isak’s shoulders, and we should expect him to do all he can to put pressure on Gianluigi Donnarumma’s goal here.

Predictions:

🚀 Alexander Isak to have 2+ shots @ 1.36

🎯 Alexander Isak to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.57

🎯 Ousmane Dembele to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.50

🎯 Anthony Gordon to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.91

PSG have yet to register fewer than seven corners across any of their four European ties so far this season, meanwhile Newcastle have had just one corner in two of their group games, and have had four or fewer in three of their four fixtures so far.

Luis Enrique’s side had eight corners when these two last met in Newcastle, and he has seen his side win the corner battle in three of their four games so far. The one game in which they did not secure more corners than their opposition was their 3-0 home win against Milan, but this is unsurprising, with the Italian side averaging just under six corners per game in Group F so far.

You can back the Parisians to continue their 7+ corner streak at 2.25 here, which looks to be excellent value considering their form so far.

Newcastle, by contrast are averaging just 4.25 corners per game, and this is skewed by a huge outlier of 11 in their home game against Dortmund, who sat back after securing a lead just before half time.

In their away games in the group so far, Newcastle have had just 2.5 corners per game, taking just one against Milan in the San Siro and four against Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park. They have also averaged 7.5 corners conceded per game in Europe, and that figure jumps up to 8.5 per game just looking at their two away games.

With Newcastle having had more corners than their opponents just once this season, and PSG having dominated in this regard, backing PSG to have the most corners looks to be a nicely valued play.

Predictions:

🚩 Over 5.5 PSG corners @ 1.73

🚩 Over 6.5 PSG corners @ 2.25

🚩 PSG Corner Match Bet @ 1.44

The last time these two sides met, despite winning the game 4-1, Newcastle were responsible for the majority of the fouls, notching 16 compared to the Parisians’ nine.

Newcastle then are the side to look at for fouls, and the place to begin is with their Brazilian midfielders, Joelinton and Bruno Guimarães. Joelinton averages a quite ridiculous 2.54 fouls per 90, whilst his compatriot is still high compared to the average, but some way off those figures at 1.65 fouls per 90.

In Joelinton’s 13 starts for Newcastle this season, he has committed a foul in 12, and has committed two or more fouls in 11. The Brazilian loves to get stuck in, often a bit too aggressively, and with PSG’s midfield containing three players who draw fouls at a rate of around 1.5 per 90, he should rack up at least a couple here.

Midfield partner Bruno would be a good shout to commit at least a foul too, but it is the fouls drawn market where his value really shines through. He has won three fouls in all of his last five starts for Newcastle, and in 10 of his 16 starts in all competitions this season.

He was also responsible for drawing three of the nine fouls committed by PSG in the reverse fixture, so backing him to do the same here looks a very nice value option, as does backing him to win two fouls or more, something he has done in 13 of his 16 starts for the Magpies this season.

This of course means that PSG midfielders are solid targets for foul bets too, and the pick of the bunch is Manuel Ugarte. The Uruguayan central midfielder averages 1.89 fouls per game for PSG this season and has committed two or more fouls in eight of his last nine starts.

Ugarte committed three fouls against Newcastle in the reverse fixture, and up against Bruno Guimaraes, he is facing a master at winning fouls from the opposition, which should ensure his streak continues.

Predictions:

🛑 Joelinton to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.44

🩹 Bruno Guimaraes to win 2+ fouls @ 1.40

🩹 Bruno Guimaraes to win 3+ fouls @ 2.20

🛑 Manuel Ugarte to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.53