Gem Bet: Real Madrid v Al Hilal
Harry Nye
Harry is a Christchurch-based football enthusiast whose love for sport and numbers naturally led him into the world of sports betting. While studying Mathematics at university, Harry began combining his analytical mindset with his passion for football. Harry focuses predominantly on football, with a particular emphasis on the Bundesliga this season, though as a Liverpool supporter (with a soft spot for QPR thanks to his dad), English football remains close to his heart. Whether it's late-night research or diving into stat models, Harry thrives on spotting the bets others might miss.
💎 Gem Bet: Sergej Milinkovic-Savic to have 2+ Shots @ 2.30 (Paddy Power)
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Sergej Milinković-Savić to register 2 or more shots is an undervalued market ahead of Al Hilal’s clash with Real Madrid, with SkyBet offering standout odds of 2.2. This price significantly contrasts with others as low as 1.53, and the implied probability of just 45.5% at SkyBet does not reflect the Serbian midfielder’s consistent shooting output across both domestic and continental competitions.
Whether deployed as a left central midfielder or pushed further up in a more advanced CAM role, Milinković-Savić has been a crucial source of attacking impetus for Al Hilal this season.
He averages 2.46 shots per 90
He has registered two or more attempts in 9 of his last 10 appearances, and in 20 of his last 25 starts.
Over the course of the campaign, he’s hit this mark in 29 of 37 starts (78.4% strike rate).
Based on this output alone, fair odds should be much closer to 1.28. His form doesn’t dip on the road either. Away from home:
Savic is averaging 2.43 shots per 90
Registered 2 or more in 10 of his last 12 away appearances.
Across 19 road starts this season, he’s delivered on this line 14 times (73.7%).
Even accounting for tougher opposition, that level of consistency makes a strong case that current odds are substantially inflated. Al Hilal’s style of play contributes to these numbers, with the side averaging 15.83 shots per game away from home this season. While Real Madrid have typically conceded fewer chances, their average of 11.39 shots conceded per 90 this season actually rises to 12.83 in away matches.
Under new manager Xabi Alonso, there may be a push for a more compact setup. But even his Bayer Leverkusen side conceded 11.48 and 10.3 shots per game on the road in his last two full seasons, reinforcing the likelihood of Al Hilal generating a fair number of attempts.
Furthermore, Real Madrid have allowed 12, 9, and 13 shots in their last three FIFA Club World Cup outings. When these two sides met in the final three years ago, Al Hilal managed 9 total shots, scoring three times—two of which goals came from the central midfield area that Savic typically operates in.
Given his role, form, and the tactical structure of his team, Milinković-Savić is well-positioned to make another offensive impact, and the 2.2 odds on him registering 2+ shots appear notably mispriced.
For more insight, there is a Real Madrid v Al Hilal Betting Preview also available on site.
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