The bookies have Barcelona as the slight favourites for this Super Cup final and rightly so. Xavi’s side are in better form than their rivals and they also played a lot better in their semi-final win. Even if there was percent symmetry in the fact that both these giants went to penalties against lesser opponents before getting the job done from the spot, Barça played much better against Betis than Real Madrid did against Valencia.

The xG numbers show that Barcelona had a wider margin over Betis (1.35 to 0.88), compared to Real Madrid vs Valencia (2.23 to 1.94), and that’s without factoring in the two goals Barça had ruled out for marginal offsides, or the fact that Barça had a tougher opponent on their hands than Los Blancos had in Valencia.

Assuming Frenkie de Jong and Ousmane Dembélé recover from minor knocks, Xavi will have all his squad available for this final, whereas Real Madrid have far more absentees. So, Barcelona should have more than enough to be able to win this final.

If Barcelona are to take this final, they’ll likely need to score more than once. And, they are more than capable of doing so. With Ansu Fati back among the goals, with Ousmane Dembélé in red hot form, with Pedri becoming increasingly more of an attacking threat and with Robert Lewandowski continuing to do Robert Lewandowski things, Barça have scoring options all over the park.

In this game, they’ll be going up against a makeshift Real Madrid defence that has looked anything but solid since the resumption of club football. The lack of defensive compactness is something Carlo Ancelotti has mentioned at least four times in his press conferences since the end of the World Cup. With David Alaba and Lucas Vázquez already confirmed absentees for this final, while Dani Carvajal, Ferland Mendy and Éder Militão are all less than 100 percent, Barcelona’s forwards should be licking their lips.

However, Real Madrid are also likely to get on the scoresheet, making both teams to score a worthy consideration but over 2.5 goals even better value. Real Madrid have scored in every single game they’ve played in 2022/23, averaging 2.11 goals per game, and have failed to score in just one of the last six Clásicos. They should be able to trouble a Barcelona defence that has conceded six goals in four matches since the World Cup pause.

With Barcelona likely to be in the driving seat in a game which will have chances, it is logical that the man who will be leading the charge is likely to be veteran centre forward Robert Lewandowski.

Lewandowski ended a three-match goal drought when he scored against Real Betis in the semi-final, with that having been his longest spell without scoring since joining the club. However, his shot numbers have remained high. He’s averaged 3.62 shots per 90 this season, with 1.92 of those being shots on target.

The Pole certainly leads the line for Xavi and his side and will do so again up against Barcelona. With Ousmane Dembélé’s deliveries from wide proving crucial in recent Clásicos, you can expect his presence in the box, especially up against a weakened Real Madrid defence, to be lethal.

Referee Ricardo de Burgos Bengoetxea has only shown more than 6.5 cards in three of his 15 matches this season and averages 5.11 cards per game across that spell. He is known to be one of Spain’s more conservative referees, ranking 15th out of all 20 top flight referees.

Equally, his figures for both Barcelona and Real Madrid are low, with an average of 2.2 cards per game for Barcelona and 1.8 cards per game for Real Madrid. This match will be only his second Clásico, with the last one coincidentally being the last time these two teams met in the Super Cup.

What’s more, this Super Cup is having a lower card count. Real Madrid vs Valencia generated six cards, with only two for Los Blancos, and Barcelona vs Real Betis had eight, but three of those came in extra-time and again, only two were for the team who made the final. That continues a trend of Barcelona matches featuring 4.77 cards per game on average this year, while the figure is even lower for Real Madrid at 4.17.