This fixture is a repeat of the Spanish Super Cup semi-final between these two teams from only three weeks ago, one which ended 1-1 before a scoreless extra time and a Real Madrid win on penalties. Yet, this game is likely to be a far more comfortable victory for the home team given the way they’ve rediscovered their form and given Valencia’s turbulent situation. The dressing room wanted Gattuso to stay, so it’s not as if a new manager bounce should be expected.

Eight of Los Blancos’ 13 wins in LaLiga this season have come by more than a one-goal margin, and they will be confident up against a team rocked by Gattuso’s abrupt exit after conceding an injury-time winner to Valladolid last weekend. Equally, Valencia haven’t won at the Bernabéu since 2008 and it would be fair to say that they are unlikely to change that record at one of Spain’s greatest sporting arenas this week.

Real Madrid have averaged two goals per 90 at home in LaLiga this season, actually underperforming their xG of 2.18. That was the case in their goalless draw with Real Sociedad, which Ancelotti described as “one of our best performances of the season”, after Los Blancos created several chances for 1.28 xG, but came up against an in-form Álex Remiro in the opposite goal. Valencia’s back line should be easier to break. Over the last five years, Valencia have scored only one goal at the Bernabéu while conceding an average of 2.8 goals per 90. That kind of gap could well continue.

With the expectation being that Real Madrid will be deadly in front of goal, that effort is likely to be led by Karim Benzema as the team’s number nine. The Frenchman, in addition to being penalty taker, has scored seven goals in eight games since returning from the World Cup and is brimming with confidence.

Benzema has averaged 1.83 shots on target per 90 this season, recording more than two shots per match in 55% of the games in which he has been involved.

He also has a fine record against Valencia, having recorded two or more shots on target in each of his last eight matches against the team, scoring nine goals in the process. The Frenchman will set out to exploit a defence who have lost their disciplinarian coach.

If Benzema is firing multiple shots on target, there is a good chance that he’ll have been set up by Vinícius. The Brazilian has bounced back from a period of rough form and put in two very good performances across the last two matches, the home cup win vs Atlético, in which he scored and assisted, and the home draw with Real Sociedad, in which he had three shots on target and nine successful dribbles from 20 attempts.

Having suffered abuse from away fans around the league, he really does seem much more focused and comfortable playing at the Bernabéu and will once again look to lead the charge in this third home game in a row.

When also keeping in mind that Vinícius is the most-fouled player in LaLiga with 3.66 fouls won per 90 minutes and when considering that winning a penalty or free-kick that is then scored counts as an assist on Paddy Power, it would be no surprise to see the forward directly involved in one of Real Madrid’s goals.

For the final part of this Bet Builder, adding over 2.5 goals increases the overall value and makes sense since this should be a game with a lot of goals. The only under 2.5 goals scoreline which would make this Bet Builder a success is a 2-0 Real Madrid win, and there should be more goals than that.

Real Madrid’s matches this season have produced the most goals of all teams in LaLiga, averaging exactly 3.0 goals per game, with 67% of their league matches having produced over 2.5 goals, also the highest percentage in LaLiga. Valencia are high in these stats too, with 2.56 goals per game on average (sixth highest value in LaLiga) and 56% of games producing over 2.5 goals (fourth highest value in LaLiga).

Even though the arguments outlined above point to this being a Real Madrid goalfest, it can’t be ruled out that the visitors could nick one too, given that Real Madrid have only kept five clean sheets this LaLiga season and given that Valencia’s strength is in their attack, with Edinson Cavani leading the line.