Yuri Berchiche to commit two or more fouls is significantly overpriced at 3.4 with bet365, especially when compared to odds as low as 1.52 elsewhere. Even the next best price is 2.10, plus we get Sub On Play On and a void if Berchiche doesn't start on 365.

That represents a massive disparity in implied probability, just 29% at bet365 v around 65%, which points to clear value, especially when you take into consideration Berchiche’s likely matchups, recent disciplinary issues and the fiery nature of the Basque derby.

The Spanish left back returns to his old stomping ground at the Reale Arena, a venue that’s brought out a fiery edge in past encounters. He’s committed at least one foul in each of his last five appearances and picked up yellow cards in the first half of each of his last two matches. This trend of rising aggression could easily spill into Sunday’s clash. Berchiche’s recent history against Real Sociedad further supports this angle:

He has committed at least one foul in his last five against La Real: 1, 2, 1, 2, 3.

He was also booked in the reverse fixture after committing that one foul.

His likely matchup only strengthens this selection. He’ll be directly up against:

Takefusa Kubo (RW): draws 2.21 fouls per 90, and has won 2+ in 5 of his last 6.

Mikel Aramburu (RB): draws 1.77 fouls per 90, and has also won 2+ in 5 of his last 6 starts.

With a history of fouling in this exact fixture, two capable dribblers running at him, and recent ill-discipline, this line looks serious value.