Unsurprisingly, Rotherham’s overall home form is down amongst the worst in the division. However, there are some small rays of hope in their recent displays.

In comparable fixtures against Huddersfield and Millwall recently, Rotherham have picked up four points. When one digs into the performance data in those matches however, Rotherham lost the xG battle convincingly in both, conceding 39 shots to their 12, and allowing six big chances.

On these grounds it is likely that Plymouth will get chances. The personnel that Argyle carry in their forward ranks should be able to capitalise on this.

Plymouth are 13th in the league for xG, 7th for shots on target, and 13th for big chances missed, all of which are impressive attacking numbers for a team in relegation trouble. This also illustrates the source of Plymouth’s main problem, defensive solidity.

It was the decline of the attack under Foster, possibly in an effort to find a greater balance, which was the biggest problem, if Dewsnip and the coaching staff can return to the sharp attacking play that got the best out of Morgan Whittaker and Ryan Hardie, then Plymouth should live up to their favourites tag here.

As suggested above, a return to a good level of attacking output should be expected for Plymouth.

If that is the case then one can expect Morgan Whittaker to be the main man to turn to. Indeed, Whittaker continues to lead the charts in the Championship for shots, 20 ahead of Conor Chaplin, and for shots on target, seven ahead of Sammie Szmodics. He unleashed seven shots last time out against Bristol City, and he should be added to the bet builder for at least one shot on target here.

From a Rotherham perspective, not one of their players approaches a shot on target per 90 on average. Sam Nombe does demonstrate some potential though and had a shot on target in their last match.

While Plymouth aren’t a strong corners team away from home, they are playing a side who are routinely dominated in terms of the corner count.

Even in matches which seem fairly evenly matched on paper, eg the Millwall home match, the Millers lost the corner count 11-2. Against Huddersfield at home, a 0-0 draw, they won only one corner and conceded six.

Plymouth are likely to come on to Rotherham and force the issue. They have good wide attackers and decent wing backs/full backs to provide width depending on how Dewsnip wants to play.

Rotherham win 3.68 corners on average at the New York Stadium, and they concede 7.63. Plymouth’s away differential isn’t great at 4.63-7.32, but is still better than the hosts and with reason to believe that they could exploit this tactically.

There is a surprisingly good price on Jordan Houghton here that is a good one for a bet builder. The Plymouth midfielder has been a regular since his return from a long term injury and has a high fouls rate of well over one per game in that time as well.

With the three-man Rotherham midfield also looking to be strong in the challenge it is going to be a big game for Houghton to make his own physicality tell. He has played 90 minutes in the last three games and made seven fouls across them, so backing him for 2+ would’ve hit in each of those.

Sticking with the midfield battle it should be worth having Ollie Rathbone onside here as well. A regular in the Rotherham team, Rathbone plays the all-action box-to-box role more often than not, and this leads to regular fouls being committed.

Rathbone’s fouls record in his last six starts reads 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1 so he is a consistent fouler, even if he only plays 60-70 minutes as he often seems to at the moment.

The other Rotherham player who is perhaps worth adding in is the forward Sam Nombe. He is a short price, but he could justify a place in the bet builder with fouls in each of his last four appearances, including three at home to Huddersfield.