Bristol City v Peterborough

The Robins’ slack defence has returned to haunt them in recent weeks in the Championship. The performance data over the last four matches suggests that they are giving away chances that equate to 1.97xG per 90. Even against a team down near the bottom such as Peterborough this is a very dangerous game to play.

Peterborough under Grant McCann are demonstrating huge fluctuations in form even within the 90 minutes of a game. A great demonstration of this was in midweek when Luton basically shut Posh out for over an hour but a huge flurry of attacking chances came Peterborough’s way in the last 20 minutes. The deserved equalizer could even have been followed by a winner and with Jack Marriott looking quite sharp alongside a more dynamic attacking output (now averaging 1.5xG per 90, the highest of the season) Peterborough games are looking more entertaining.

With both teams looking threatening going forwards and loose at the back it is clearly ripe for a bet supporting goals. Bristol City’s matches are producing an average of 3.05xG per 90 and Peterborough are going along at an even higher 3.35xG per 90. This ranks them 2nd and 3rd in the league for the rate of chances in their matches so it is fortuitous for us that they meet here.

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Middlesbrough v Hull

The midweek defeat to Fulham will have really stung Middlesbrough. Having watched the game it would be fair to say that Boro deserved at least a point from the match, and the data backs that up as well. In fact, Boro won the xG battle and that means that they have now done so in 14 out of 19 home matches this season.

Chris Wilder rotated his forwards for the Fulham match, deciding to go with Andraz Sporar and Duncan Watmore instead of Aaron Connolly and Flo Balogun. Josh Coburn also arrived from the bench and actually had the best chance to bring Boro level. The amount of firepower that Wilder has at his disposal is a big reason why Middlesbrough should finish in the playoffs. They will certainly now be motivated to cement that top six place having dropped those points on Wednesday.

From Hull’s perspective, they sit very much in the bottom half of performance ratings in current form and this is backed up by results. Shota Arveladze’s team are close to safety in the Championship and have the quality in the squad to confirm this in subsequent weeks, but with a suspension to Tom Eaves following his ridiculous red card in midweek, the Tigers’ attacking approach will require substantial change. This disruption should add further confidence to Boro’s chances of keeping the Tigers out.

Chris Wilder is exactly the type of manager one would want in their dugout on the back of a defeat in this situation. This is an early opportunity for them to come out and dominate their opponents and cast aside that result. It was 8 home wins on the bounce before Wednesday, Wilder will want to kickstart a new run here.

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Nottingham Forest v Birmingham

Steve Cooper has got Forest purring at the moment. Now free of any more distractions or breaks Cooper can concentrate on using his resources solely to place Forest in the playoffs in good form. With the number of games that they still have to play there is even a slim chance that they could chase down Bournemouth for automatic promotion. Whilst this is a possibility they will want maximum points from every match, so this is an added incentive for this one.

Six of Forest’s last seven home matches have been won by two goals or more. The consistency of selection that Cooper has been able to employ has certainly helped in delivering these performances. Everywhere you look in the Forest XI you see quality, the central defensive trio of Worrall, Figueredo and McKenna is so strong and it provides the perfect platform for the front three of Johnson, Zinckernagel and Keinan Davis to do their stuff. With support from midweek goalscorer James Garner and the flying Djed Spence on the right it is so hard to poke holes in this side.

This is even tougher for Birmingham when they are going through the turmoil they are suffering at the moment. The latest round of in-fighting at the club is not helping their overall situation, and although they seemed to improve their forward options in January the impetus has faded slightly. Birmingham aren’t a bad side, performance data suggests that their midtable position is deserved, but their approach to this match will surely be a defensive one.

This will only encourage Forest who were able to break down Blackpool and Coventry early on in the recent matches and once that is achieved they relish the extra space. The variety of attack that Davis has given the side since January is key to the way that they play now so it is difficult to see how Birmingham are able to keep the chances to a minimum.

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Fulham v Coventry

Fulham are on the verge of securing a return to the Premier League at the first time of asking. As always in these situations they will be keen to get the job done as quickly as they can and this is an ideal opportunity to pick up yet another win.

Coventry have conceded two goals in their last two matches and actually haven’t kept a clean sheet in the league since hosting a toothless Barnsley in mid-February. In away matches, this run extends to November and recent xG data backs up the fact that Coventry tend to concede over a goal a game in terms of chance creation against their backline.

Therefore, if Fulham are able to take advantage of the chances they are likely to receive then, obviously, they have a great chance of winning the game. In terms of taking chances there have been few that have been as lethal as Aleksander Mitrovic in the history of The Championship. The Serbian took a knock on Wednesday but is likely to be fit for Saturday, but even without him Fulham have riches to spare in Harry Wilson, Neeskens Kebano, Ivan Cavaleiro, and Rodrigo Muniz.

Coventry have displayed their fighting spirit with late goals to stay in the playoff race for as long as they have, but Wednesday’s defeat to Forest surely put the final nails in the coffin of that ambition. It is difficult to see that they would have the same motivation now for this game and an early goal could see trouble ahead for the Sky Blues.

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