Cardiff City v Birmingham City

Two teams that most had in their Championship bottom six pre-season but both showing that they may have something unexpected about them based on the points evidence so far. Cardiff’s reinvention as a footballing team following years of more direct football is improving, albeit nowhere near the finished article just yet, whilst Birmingham have come together well under John Eustace.

Eustace has already been able to foster a strong unit mentality. It is Birmingham City against a heck of a lot of off-field problems and it could be a wise move because ultimately the squad does still lack in outright quality. 

The Scott Hogan-Troy Deeney partnership looks likely to continue and it isn’t the most dynamic, though Hogan admitted recently in press that he is being allowed to play his natural game as a penalty box striker. 

What gives me confidence in an under bet here though is mainly Cardiff based. They themselves have only created 0.4xG worth of chances over the opening two matches, the lowest in the division. One could argue that they are still missing a central striker with a real cutting edge and also their wide forwards are not players that would convince you to create a huge amount in this division. 

Also, in their last home match, they restricted a very good attacking side in Norwich, to 0.3xG. That took a lot of organisation and hard work. This indicates that Morison has his squad fully behind him and with the encouragement of the vocal Welsh crowd I suspect that we could see something similar here. Jamilu Collins has started his Cardiff career in inspired form and the central midfield has been solid in possession and also defensive coverage so far. 

Goals could be at a premium in the early kick-off and I would expect an even game with few clear cut chances for either side. 

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Hull v Norwich

Having just mentioned Norwich’s toothless attacking performance in their last away game it does seem incongruous to be putting them up as a good thing for an away win here. 

However, this suggested bet is more about Hull than Norwich, though we’ll touch on the Canaries in a second. Hull brought in a lot of talent over the summer and performances have been disjointed.

Whilst they have picked up a very healthy four points from their two Championship matches, the goals against Bristol City that turned the match around were very fortunate. One a soft penalty and the other a huge deflection on a speculative drive from Jean-Michael Seri. They didn’t really come close to scoring at Preston either and actually we’re very lucky not to concede as Preston dominated the xG battle (2.1 vs 0.2). 

Norwich did look closer to their usual Championship selves last time out against Wigan. They conceded a strange goal but showed resilience and some quality to get back into the match and probably should’ve gone on to win it. 

Strength in depth is returning to the Carrow Road squad as well with new signings Nunez and Sara starting recent matches and adding to the Championship tested options of Teemu Pukki, Todd Cantwell and Kenny McLean. I still have an element of faith in the Kosovan Milot Rashica to come good as a source of goals and assists this season as well. Youngster Liam Gibbs is earning some rave reviews as well early this term. 

I am expecting Norwich to come out on top of the xG battle here and therefore give them a better chance of winning the game. Their defence does concern me slightly with injuries at left back but I think that they will control possession enough for this not be a decisive weakness. 

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Millwall v Coventry

Having watched Coventry very closely against Sunderland it was clear that they that they were very much missing the guile of Callum O’Hare and the bad news from a Sky Blue perspective is that he isn’t due back from a hamstring tear for quite a while yet. Without him in the side there is no real ball-carrying threat from midfield, simplifying the game for the opposition midfielders and defenders. 

Another attacking weakness for Coventry comes from their wingbacks. Jake Bidwell and Josh Eccles took up those positions against Sunderland and neither were able to be positive attacking outlets, often receiving the ball too early to influence the final third and lacking the individual brilliance to beat their man and create something themselves. Last season Ian Maatsen and Fankaty Dabo were key attacking contributors so Mark Robins will need to find a way to recreate that threat. 

Millwall are having their own creation issues. Having lost Jed Wallace in the close season their main replacement, Zian Flemming, sustained an injury and isn’t likely to return for a short while. This means that despite a promising strike force of Tom Bradshaw and Benik Afobe, there is a lack of creativity in behind them to supply the chances. 

Both goals so far have arrived from set pieces with Charlie Cresswell getting on the end of both. Coventry will be well prepared for the Millwall set pieces and will hope to stop them.

Again, Millwall will rely on a solid home record this season if they are going to challenge for playoffs. They had the third best home record last season including 9 clean sheets and only twice conceding more than one goal in a home game. 

As you can tell from what I have written I think that there could be trouble for one or both teams to create and take their chances. Whilst under 2.5 goals is probably a safer option, the odds aren’t appetising. Take Both Teams To Score – No for a juicier price

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Blackburn v West Brom

The only 100% record in the league belongs to Blackburn Rovers but it is under severe threat on Sunday. Ewood Park has been a very tough place for the opposition to go to, except for Fulham 21/22, but this is arguably West Brom’s easiest task of this Championship season so far. 

The Baggies actually top the very early xG difference table despite facing Middlesbrough and Watford in their first two fixtures. This is mainly as a result of the number of chances they created at home to Watford. It was a very convincing performance from the Baggies last time out with Jed Wallace and John Swift showing their worth as new arrivals. 

Blackburn have been very solid defensively so far. However, the game plan for both matches suited Daniel Ayala and Scott Wharton in central defence. It is likely that Jon Dahl Tomasson will identify the threat of pace in behind of Wallace, Grady Diangana and Karlan Grant so Blackburn will probably employ a deeper defensive line than Tomasson would prefer. 

A deeper line does blunt Rovers’ attack somewhat, giving them a more set Baggies defence to break through. Rovers have also overperformed their xG quite substantially in their two league games, scoring 4 from 1.2xG created. Obviously, this rate is unsustainable and comparing this to West Brom’s output of 4.6xG it would be fair to suggest that the Baggies are the sharper attacking unit. 

The Draw No Bet odds have the teams with equal chances of winning this game. The draw is a big runner in my opinion but the data and the eye test say to me that outside of that outcome, West Brom are the better side out of the two and home advantage and form is taking a lot of the weight here from a Blackburn perspective. 

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