Ham Kam v Bodø/Glimt
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Saturday 16th July – 5:00PM KO
Newly promoted Ham Kam have only lost twice all season and have proven very difficult to beat upon their return to the Eliteserien. Their eight draws are the most of any team in the league and they have struggled to convert those into victories. However, Ham Kam will be very pleased with their first half of the season. Last week they obtained a decent 1-1 away to Haugesund and in their most recent home match managed to hold Molde to a comfortable 0-0 draw. Jakob Michelsen’s men have conceded the third fewest goals out of any team in the league. Their 3-4-3 formation sometimes reverts to a 5-4-1 and can be difficult to break down. Ham Kam welcome back experienced defender Alexander Melgalvis for this game after suspension. Hasan Kurucay is also likely to return after injury. They will likely sit deep and try to counter-attack with their physical front three.
Bodø/Glimt have won three of their four Eliteserien matches since the early summer break. They climbed back to 4th in the table and comfortably beat Sarpsborg 4-1 last weekend. However, there have been some recent problems which have to be considered. Injuries to key attackers Amahl Pellegrino and Ola Solbakken will limit their attack force, whilst important centre back Brede Moe is also majorly doubtful. Glimt played on Wednesday night away to Faroese champions KÍ. They suffered a huge scare as they lost 3-1 on the night but prevailed 4-3 on aggregate to make it through to the next stage of Champions League qualifying. Glimt had to endure travel delays in midweek which would have affected their preparation.
The average goals per game in Ham Kam matches is only 2.5, which is one of the lowest in the Eliteserien. Bodø/Glimt have an xGA per 90 mins of only 1.16. With the visitors missing key players in attack then a lot of factors point towards lower scoring match here at the Briskeby Arena. Under 2.5 is a generous price and a tempting bet, however taking Ham Kam on a 1X double chance could be the better option. This feels like a really good time to face Bodø/Glimt who are shorthand, and also in the middle of a distracting European qualifying run. Ham Kam are hard to beat and especially with home advantage should be good enough to obtain a point. There is a good chance that this fixture ends in a draw with 1-1 perhaps the most likely outcome. There is definitely some value on the hosts to get something.
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Prediction: HamKam Double Chance, Evens on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Molde v Haugesund
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Sunday 17th July – 5:00PM KO
Molde roared back to form last week when they hammered Tromsø 5-1. They had previously only drawn 0-0 vs Ham Kam and 1-1 vs Jerv, which were two terrible results facing newly promoted teams. Mole are joint top of the Eliteserien table on 30 points and are unbeaten in 9 consecutive matches. They have scored 28 goals in 14 matches and that is the joint second most of any team in the league. Molde are totally legitimate averaging 1.87 xG per 90 mins. One big problem for Erling Moe’s men have been constant injury problems this season. Two key attackers Magnus Wolff Eikrem and Ola Brynhildsen have both been missing recently. They probably lacked their influence when trying to break down some of the defensive sides they faced last week.
Molde should not have too many problems scoring against a Haugesund side who have conceded a league high 26 goals this season. The visitors have clear defensive problems and have an appalling average xGA of 1.85 in away matches. Haugesund have only lost two of their last eight games and have steadied the ship after an extremely poor start to the campaign, but they are still down in 14th place and struggling. At least Jostein Grindhaug’s side have scored the most goals out of any team in the bottom half of the table (21). In Alioune Ndour they have one of the top scorers in the Eliteserien with 8 goals. Haugesund do carry some offensive threat and will have no fear travelling to Molde. They drew 3-3 away to Rosenborg earlier in the season and know they need to fight fire with fire in this fixture if they are to stand a chance.
There are several betting possibilities for this match. Molde will likely win, and probably quite comfortably. It is also the sort of match which should contain plenty of goals. It is likely both teams will score considering the respective scoring power of either side. The best bet looks to be Molde to score over 1.5 goals on their own though. This is a very boring and unoriginal bet, but these sorts of picks are often the most effective and there is no need to complicate matters. Molde should be able to feast on this weak Haugesund defence and net at least twice. This covers for the potential 2-0 or 3-0 scoreline, or even Molde not winning the match. For those wanting bigger odds then there are several other bets which could be considered, but this looks to be the safe banker option.
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Prediction: Molde to Score Over 1.5 Goals, 1.40 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Sarpsborg v Vålerenga
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Sunday 17th July – 5:00PM KO
Sarpsborg are fast becoming the most watchable side in the Eliteserien. Their extremely high risk and attacking nature means that the neutral can very much enjoy their style of football. They are the highest scoring team in the league with 29 goals in just 13 games, but at the other end have also conceded 21 times. They are on a run of seven consecutive over 2.5 fixtures and come crazy matches have been included such as a 4-3 win vs Sandefjord the last time they played at home. Sarpsborg are legitimately a strong attacking threat with an average xG of 2.08 per 90 mins. They do not rely on one man and the goals have been spread quite evenly throughout the team this season. Stefan Billborn’s 4-2-3-1 system which is high press, high risk but also high reward is not going to change. Sarpsborg have the 3rd worst xGA average per 90 mins (1.79) and opposition sides know they will get chances against this tactical set up and style.
Vålerenga travel here with a much needed win under their belt. They beat Kristiansund 3-0 last week and it was a massive relief for manager Dag Eilev Fagermo who has been under huge pressure to save his job. Vålerenga are the most underachieving team in the league and should be doing much better than their current 13th position, Expectations of a minimum top six finish this season have so far been a complete bust. On the field, VIF have the 4th best average xG per 90 mins (1.82) but only converted that into 15 goals. It has been the same story at the other end of the field where their 19.50 xGA has resulted in 22 goals conceded. There have been several recent changes in the Vålerenga squad. Striker Vidar Kjartansson has left the club and so has winger Aron Dønnum. Goalkeeper Kjetil Haug was sold to Toulouse which means youngster Magnus Sjoeng has taken the gloves. Per Kristian Bratveit should be available soon after a transfer.
I think Sarpsborg will win the match but the best bet in their fixtures recently has been backing over 2.5 goals. Their matches are so wild, end to end and full of chances that it totally makes sense to be taking goal bets first and foremost. Sarpsborg matches average a ridiculous 3.9 goals per game which is an astronomical amount. Vålerenga should be able to contribute themselves and found their scoring boots last week which will likely give them some confidence. Both teams scoring also looks like a good bet here but at a similar price I would rather take over 2.5, just in case someone has a blowout 3-0 or 4-0 win. All things point towards another high scoring contest anyway.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals, 1.50 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
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