Blackburn still sit bottom of the Championship xG table and there are no signs that Jon Dahl Tomasson is able to change the way that Rovers play in order to create more chances.

Having not drawn a match for a record 28 consecutive games, Rovers have become draw specialists. They are playing a risky game though, far too often have Blackburn been second best in their matches, only to produce a moment of magic or exploit a mistake to pick up points.

The bet recommended for this match though is simply to get against goals, so Rovers’ tight, deep style should work in our favour for this match. Swansea, famously, tend to struggle to break down set defences, but because of their own game style they don’t get many opportunities to play against a broken defence, as typically would happen on the counter attack.

The lack of activity from Swans in the transfer window, and indeed the weakening of the squad, is clearly driving a wedge between supporters and owners at Swansea. It is the latest in a long line of decisions by the owners that have served to disenfranchise the fans, but now that discontent is spreading to the manager as well, with Russell Martin giving press conferences in a manner in which we have rarely seen from him. It wouldn’t be fair to say this has translated onto the pitch necessarily, the effort is still there from the players but perhaps the edge is lacking. There is certainly a quality and depth problem as well, some players are having to play every minute and that will take its toll physically, mentally, and emotionally.

This may manifest itself as a lack of ideas on the pitch going forwards, and, especially at home, Rovers are not a side that you want to run out of ideas against. They tend to be resolute to the end and have a good understanding amongst the defensive unit. Scott Wharton will miss the game due to injury, but Dominic Hyam is back, so that shouldn’t make a difference.

Michael Carrick’s Boro are on an absolute tear through the Championship at the moment and it just so happens that this match co-incides with a team who are at a very low ebb in terms of confidence and are toying over a potential second change of manager in a matter of months.

Every single part of this Boro team is performing at a high standard, apart, perhaps, from Zack Steffen in goal. It would be bizarre to think that Marcus Forss would be outstanding at right wing, Chuba Akpom a revelation as a #10 and a midfielder who was playing in the EFL’s worst team last year would be driving the team forward at the top of the Championship, but Carrick has identified these opportunities and run with them.

The first choice XI now picks itself, but there is great depth there too if Carrick needs to reach for it. He may be tempted to do so this weekend because of the recent schedule, but Dan Barlaser, Paddy McNair, Isaiah Jones, Rodrigo Muniz etc. are hardly second-rate options from the bench.

Neil Critchley, on the other hand, has exactly the opposite issue. QPR simply can’t find a way to get enough points from matches. There are times when they are playing well and are well in matches, but something goes wrong either offensively or defensively and confidence takes another hit. We know that on their day the likes of Ilias Chair, Chris Willock, Andre Dozzell, Stefan Johansen, and others have the ability to penetrate Championship defences but there is a malaise around the team that simply has to be shaken off somehow. This is a very tough game to do that in.

For context, since the World Cup, Middlesbrough would be 3rd in an expected points table with QPR down in 18th. Middlesbrough have won their last five home matches and have won the xG battle in all of their last 10 at home. QPR have won 1 in 9 away games, and won the xG battle in 3 of their last 10 on the road. I would be astonished if Boro didn’t win the xG battle again here and then it’s a case of can they take their chances. Cameron Archer has added another layer of sharpness to that attack of in-form players so I would say there is a good chance of those chances ending up in the net.

A nice odds against quote for the overs on the goals here and although on the surface of the results of the two sides it makes sense for the layers to give us this price, there are underlying reasons that we can take advantage of it.

Rotherham actually have a decent scoring record at home. They have netted in eight of their last ten home matches, including bagging 3 and 4 in that time, they have also conceded 3 and 4 in separate matches as well, with 7 of the 10 going over the 2.5 goal line. In addition to this, it would be fair to say that the Millers seriously upgraded their attacking options in January. Yes, losing Dan Barlaser to Middlesbrough was a blow, but Hakeem Odoffin and Oli Rathbone have grasped those central midfield positions and transformed the dynamic in there for Matt Taylor. Jordan Hugill is able to provide a solid platform for the likes of Cheo Ogbene, Conor Washington, and new signing Tarique Fosu to run in behind and threaten defences in a different way.

There are still some defensive issues for Rotherham. Taking the post- World Cup break as the sample they are the team that has conceded the highest xG in the league as a whole. Giving the likes of Viktor Gyokeres chances to score will not be a good idea in this match. The Swedish forward is genuinely top class, probably the best all-round forward in the league, and with Matt Godden back to support and an in-form Kasey Palmer there are multiple reasons to believe that Cov can get on the scoresheet here and contribute to getting us over 2.5 goals.

There isn’t the same weight of evidence in Coventry’s away matches for goals. But over that same sample size the Sky Blues are in the top half for xG created and bottom half for xG against, so there are chances on either side of Coventry games in general.

There are plenty of teams hunting the Championship’s play-off places. Seven points currently separate the teams between sixth and 16th in the table. Could Hull City be one of the genuine outside contenders?

Plenty of praise has already come the way of Liam Rosenior for his impact since taking over the Tigers in early November. Hull were sat looking over their shoulder at the relegation zone at that point, and now have climbed well clear of trouble, turning attention instead to a possible late top six push. Hull City have been beaten just three times across their last 14 league matches, Rosenior showing preference recently for a 4-4-2 which has top scorer Óscar Estupiñán partnered by Irishman Aaron Connolly. The 23-year-old Brighton and Hove Albion loanee missed midweek with injury however, Benjamin Tetteh partnering Estupiñán on that occasion at Norwich City.

Hull City fans may feel more confident of a play-off push than supporters of Preston North End do at the moment. Outside of a 2-1 win at Birmingham City, the Lilywhites’ recent results include a heavy 4-0 defeat at the hands of Norwich City, defeat at home to Bristol City, and a 3-0 loss at Burnley where they felt outclassed by their Lancashire opponents.

Down to 10 in midweek after midfielder Ben Whiteman was dismissed, Preston were able to grab an equaliser at home to play-off side Luton Town with a late Troy Parrott penalty. It is a result however that probably frustrates Luton more than it will encourage Preston. With Whiteman suspended, Lowe could turn to the 3-4-3 that he played against Bristol City, which used a central pair of Ryan Ledson and Ali McCann. Alan Browne and Robbie Brady are often worth making as key creative outlets in wing-back roles.

Hull City are targeting a third consecutive win-to-nil at home this weekend. Whilst themselves and Preston North End are separated by just goals scored in the current Championship table, the Tigers feel the side with the stronger momentum and the potential to stay in the play-off hunt right up until the very end of the campaign. Victory here at the MKM Stadium will go a long way towards helping them in that push.