Blackburn v Bristol City

The Robins have been absolute heroes of this column for goals. They have been so reliable for going over 2.5 goals in their matches, but here is where the unstoppable force meets the immovable object in the Championship on Saturday afternoon.

The Blackburn Rovers defence has been outstanding for the majority of the season and achieved a new high on Tuesday as they prevented Millwall from having even a single shot across the entire match. This is a very rare occurrence and goes to show how organised Tony Mowbray has his structure in Rovers’ 5-2-3 formation.

Unfortunately, this solidity has come at a price. Rovers have scored only 3 league goals in 2022, a ridiculously low total, especially for a team that were the 2nd top scorers in the league at the turn of the year. Chance creation has lowered, but not to the point that they create nothing. There are also issues of luck and finishing execution at play for Rovers, but there has been no sign of a change in approach from Mowbray.

Bristol City do have goal threats in Antoine Semenyo, Andreas Weimann, and veteran Chris Martin. The problem is that recently City have not used them to full effect. They are actually creating fewer chances than Rovers on recent form (0.89xG per 90 vs 0.84xG per 90) so the signs are there for another low-margin and low-goal slog at Ewood Park.

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Bournemouth v Derby County

The Cherries are still the team in pole position to grab the 2nd automatic promotion place. They have a number of games in hand plus enough points already in the bag to be in that position. However, there is a definite feeling that despite their intense spending in January Scott Parker’s men have been stuttering of late.

Indeed, observing their performance data, their last four matches have led to them only being in 9th place in expected points over that time. They are also below odds expectations in that time and it is the lowest that they have been in these measures all season. The main problem appears to be an increase in conceding chances, 1.13xG per 90 means that they are struggling to keep clean sheets.

Derby are still below Bournemouth in the expected points metrics and still seem to have trouble with chance creation. They are still continuing to average less than 1 xG per game, as they have all season. However, moving away from the data, there has been an unquestionable mental strength in The Rams this season. They have arguably performed better and better as the season has progressed and are now in a position in which all players really know their roles inside out.

The price on Derby is such that we can have the draw on our side and still have a big odds against shot. The longer that Derby can keep the scores down and close the more that the tension and doubt in the Bournemouth players will show.

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Coventry City v Sheffield United

Two teams that are just outside the playoff positions combine to hopefully serve up a treat in the Midlands. 

Sheffield United under Paul Heckingbottom have been consistently one of the best performing teams in the Championship. After having a relatively easy fixture list they really showed their promotion credentials in a dominant display against fellow contenders Middlesbrough in midweek. The style of that display, a high-pressing, high-octane all-round performance with goals across the team was enough to convince most that Blades are a confident selection for the top six.

Coventry haven’t been performing badly but it is becoming clear that Mark Robins is searching slightly for a formula to give them enough points to stay in the playoff race. Most recently Robins played three recognised forwards in Martyn Waghorn, Matt Godden, and Viktor Gyokeres but it backfired in a 0-1 defeat to Luton Town. There have also been recent experiments with 3-4-2-1 but I suspect that a return to 3-4-1-2 may be employed for this match. 

The problem that Coventry will have to watch out for is that Sander Berge and Morgan Gibbs-White will look to drive forwards from midfield in the spaces between Coventry’s central midfielders and wing backs. This will engage the wide central defenders of Coventry and potentially expose Billy Sharp 1v1 with the central defender.

Whether that tactic plays out or not, Sheffield United are the team I want to side with here and also getting the draw onside adds a layer of safety

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Nottingham Forest v Reading

Another excellent FA Cup performance from Forest on Monday night means that there is an element of momentum to the Tricky Trees. Reading have been hot and cold so far under Paul Ince and though they still have talented individuals, it is clear that Reading cannot be relied on for consistency as a team.

As with most Reading matches there should be goals. The Berkshire outfit are still quite loose in defence, their 1.37xG against per 90 over the last four matches is the joint 2nd worst in the competition. This pressure on the goalkeeper has really not helped Luke Southwood who has looked short on confidence. Indeed, the Royals swooped for a new ‘keeper this week in former Villa stopper Orjan Nyland. Whether this will help their defensive issues or not only time will tell.

Reading are creating chances though, also averaging over 1xG per 90 going forwards. Trying to reproduce that at the City Ground though where Forest concede 0.85xG against per 90 will be a bit tougher.

Just to add strength to the feeling that Forest should win this match, they have scored twice or more in four successive home matches. 6 in their last 7 as well. It would be a surprise indeed if Reading are to be the team to bring that run to an end. Two goals for Forest should be enough to secure the victory, or at the very least, make them strong favourites for it.

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