Birmingham v Blackburn

It is the final day of the Championship season and research indicates that goals could be on the menu, all of the tips today contain some element of siding with goals.

Both of these two sides have suffered something of a capitulation in 2022. Where both fan bases and both managers would have been satisfied with their work in the first half of the season, now one manager is leaving his role and the other is under a lot of pressure to do the same.

WIth Tony Mowbray effectively announcing his own departure from Blackburn Rovers, under deafening silence from the leaders and owners, it might be fair to suggest that not as much diligence will have gone into the tactical plan for this match. The players will be prepared of course, but perhaps the nth degree of planning may be missing from the training. 

Not only that, but none of the out-of-contract players, Ryan Nyambe, Joe Rothwell, and, club captain, Darragh Lenihan, are in the plans to start the game. Add to that the loanees that will not be part of the squad as well, player of the year Jan Paul van Hecke amongst them, and we can see that the Blackburn team will not be at full strength, especially in defence.

Birmingham have not been the most freely scoring team in the league this season but they are capable of getting on the scoresheet. In fact, the Blues are averaging 1.22xG per 90 in their last four matches. The problem is that they are also conceding 1.98xG against, but it does make Birmingham matches high on the agenda for goals at either end.

Interestingly this fixture was also a final game of the season last year, albeit at Ewood Park rather than St. Andrews. Blackburn ran out 5-2 winners in a highly entertaining encounter that day and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see something similar on Saturday.

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Peterborough v Blackpool

Nothing riding on this match for either side and with both teams showing some inconsistent results, but both demonstrating improvement going forwards, there is a recipe for goals here.

Posh have unleashed their talented attackers a bit more under Grant McCann and it wouldn’t be Peterborough without a final day goalfest. The last 5 seasons have seen results of 4-1, 3-1, 0-2, 0-3 and 5-1 on the final day, some of which were overseen by McCann in his first spell at the club.

That 5-1 drubbing was inflicted on Blackpool back in 2016. Things have improved for the Seasiders since then and certainly I wouldn’t be expecting them to be conceding five, but they did concede twice to a young Derby side last week. Mainly though this bet is based upon Blackpool’s ability to create chances, their 1.89xG per 90 over the last four matches in 2nd in the division.

Neil Critchley has more forward options to choose from than at any stage of the season with the former Crewe men of Charlie Kirk and Owen Dale staking their claim alongside the likes of CJ Hamilton and Keshi Anderson who have both had spells in the side. Josh Bowler has been the star of the Blackpool attack but as a loanee he may not be used here. Jake Beesley may again deputise for Gary Madine and Shayne Lavery or Jerry Yates will fill the other central slot in their 4-4-2. With that plethora of options it is clear why Neil Critchley’s side are a constant threat throughout matches.

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Swansea v QPR

Swansea City have the highest total xG per 90 in their matches of any team in the Championship at the moment. Russell Martin appears to be enjoying cutting loose in attack at the moment. The dual threat of Michael Obafemi and Joel Piroe is creating and scoring a lot of goals for both men, however, playing both is also clearly making them more open then they were earlier in the season.

QPR are in a very similar situation to Blackburn in that they know that Mark Warburton is leaving. Therefore similar thinking applies to their situation as I outlined when discussing Rovers. Warburton is likely to want to entertain and put on a show for his last game in charge and the players are also likely to want to be positive, as similarly to Mowbray, the relationship between manager and players hasn’t broken down here.

QPR’s xG ratio has been poor for the whole second half of the season. They have consistently conceded a high xG per 90 and Swansea are likely to win the xG battle here. However, with Swansea’s propensity to get involved in crazy matches at the moment they simply cannot be trusted for the win. Instead a prediction of goals is again probably the best angle to get involved in this match.

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West Brom v Barnsley

Often when the last match of the season rolls around players are allowed, or decide themselves, to come off the leash. This can sometimes allow players to relax and play their natural game a bit more.

This has been a poor season for West Brom. From a side that was highly fancied to finish in the automatic promotion places to be possibly finishing in the bottom half clearly shows that this team has very much punched below their weight. However, the talented players are still there in the squad and the likes of Karlan Grant and Callum Robinson are good enough to put a dazed and confused Barnsley side to the sword.

As opponents go you probably couldn’t ask for much better than the Tykes right now. Managerless, having dispensed with the services of Poya Asbaghi, Barnsley look very much ready for this season to end. They have lost four consecutive matches and conceded at least twice in all of them. The xG data suggests that this was quite harsh on the Yorkshire side but their away performances were certainly worse than their home ones. In fact, Barnsley have won the xG battle only 5 from 22 matches on the road this season.

We can certainly be confident that West Brom will create more chances than their opponents it is then just a question of whether they are able to convert. Some players will be playing for their places in next year’s squad as Steve Bruce will certainly be looking to change things over the summer.

Mainly though this bet is based upon West Brom having better players than Barnsley and allowing them to play to their ability without much pressure.

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