There are a few mind-boggling prices to take advantage of in League One this weekend and one of them comes at the Kassam Stadium.

The Yellows have not come close to the standards that they set in the previous three seasons under Karl Robinson this term and the majority of supporters feel like they have come to the end of a cycle. Oxford have lost six of seven in the third tier and supporters are calling for Robinson to be sacked after most games, they lost at 23rd placed Cambridge United last weekend and yet are odds on to win on Saturday.

Billy Bodin is out for the Yellows where Tyler Goodrham is back available for selection. For Bristol Rovers, Sam Finley and Lewis Gibson are back in contention while Jordan Rossiter remains sidelined.

The Gas have lost six of their last seven but still have a forward line more than capable of breaching the Yellows while the atmosphere worsens. In Antony Evans, Aaron Collins, Scott Sinclair, John Marquis and Josh Coburn, Joey Barton has an array of talent to utilise and Finley’s return is an enormous boost.

Arsenal will be looking to extend their lead at the top of the table as they head up to Leicester on Saturday afternoon. The Gunners bounced back last weekend with a last gasp victory at Villa Park, as they sealed a 4-2 win in stoppage time to secure their top spot in the Premier League. The team showed huge character in this fixture, after coming back twice from behind which is no easy feat away from home. The ever reliable England international Bukayo Saka was again in fine form, notching one of their four goals and awarded the man of match. In contrast, Leicester were brushed aside by Manchester United at Old Trafford, losing by 3 goals to nil. However, they performed well throughout this game and were unlucky to lose by such a wide margin.

As we look forward to this particular match up, I’m fully expecting the away side to be all guns blazing at the King Power. Confidence was restored last weekend after a couple of tricky weeks having dropped points in their previous three fixtures. They could be without Thomas Partey again here, a player who has been so influential throughout their campaign thus far. Other than that, only Gabriel Jesus remains sidelined with a knee injury and is due back in the coming weeks. I’m anticipating it’ll be business as usual in attack with the likely front four of Saka, Odegaard, Nketiah and Martinelli  set to go from the off. Trossard may be in contention too, after some excellent showings since his move from Brighton. There’s no doubt they’ll fancy their chances up against the league’s second worst defence statistically. The Foxes have conceded an eye opening 41 goals in their 23 games so far, something the Gunners will certainly look to exploit. With such firepower in attack, I can easily see the visitors racking up a few goals. The previously mentioned Bukayo Saka has 5 goals to his name in his last 9 PL outings, not to mention his 8 assists in all games this season. Martin Odegaard has possibly been the one of the best players in the entire competition this season. The Norwegian has been widely praised in the media and he’s another who could unlock the door in attack. On paper, all the signs point to an away win here, so I’m definitely taking an Arsenal win as my selection.

After an unfortunate loss last time out for Leicester, things don’t get any easier in this relentless Premier League season. They had managed to pick up maximum points in their previous 2 games to this, although faced lesser opposition on each occasion. Now facing the potential champions, it’ll be another tough assignment even on home soil. Their hopes could be pinned on their midfield magician in James Maddison who is clearly one of their star players. He’s hit a couple of goals in his previous 3 games, as well as providing an assist in this time too. It’s not just his goals and assists that his side have relied on; it’s his extremely consistent level of performance that have enabled his Leicester to consolidate in this very competitive league.

One area of the pitch I’m keen to oppose the Foxes in is their defence. The summer recruit of Wout Faes is now set for a longer term partnership with newly recruited Harry Souttar from Stoke. We saw last week how a lack of communication cost them one of their three goals that they conceded. I feel it may well take some time for this partnership to blossom and the step up from the Championship to the Premier League is a big one for the Australian. As ever, I’m sure the home side can pose a threat in attack with the likes of Barnes, Iheanacho and Tete, if selected. However, I just cannot see them coming away with anything in this game!

There’s so much at stake here for Arsenal and I’m backing them to win once again at their happy hunting ground. They’ve won on each of their three previous trips to the East Midlands!

The case for backing Luton here is actually quite evenly spread between both sides. Birmingham have a lot on their plate off the pitch at the moment with the information coming out of various sources that things look actually very serious for Birmingham City as a football club at this stage. This cannot help on-the-field matters but regardless of the problems in the boardroom, there are reasons to believe that the team would struggle against Luton regardless.

Starting with the visitors themselves who are in rude health, and have been for a long time really. The good thing about Luton is that you can, more often than not, trust in a certain minimum level of performance from them. The effort in the players is certainly never less than 100% (which I believe to be the case in most players to be fair) and the tactical setup of Edwards is usually sound.

I would agree with those observers who see a sprinkle of Wilderism about Edwards’ setup and the combination of the modern, flexible positional nature of the tactics and the type of football produced by this and the direct, physical approach of the players makes Luton a dangerous side in any fixture. Indeed, away from home Luton have won the xG battle in four of their last five, including a mauling of Preston last time out that deserved more than the draw that they emerged with. More usually they tend to edge low margin matches, but either way, on a draw no bet basis, there is good evidence to side with the Hatters.

Birmingham have lost four of their last five at St. Andrews, which is still more of a building site than a fortress. They have lost the xG battle decisively in three of those five matches against Hull, Middlesbrough, and last time out against Cardiff. My personal ratings have Luton closer to the likes of Hull and Middlesbrough and way above Cardiff and as such I would expect a certain level of dominance from Luton here and as long as chances are taken in an average manner then Luton should be coming away from Birmingham with the points.

It is still fairly difficult to pin down David Wagner’s Norwich side. Since the last time they were mentioned in this column they have suffered a disappointing, suffocating goalless draw with Wigan and then a dominant high-scoring win over Birmingham.

The catalyst for the victory was the use of Gabriel Sara and Marcelino Nunez in midfield with Kenny McLean used to protect the back four but link the play as well. Nunez had his most infuential game to date with two goals and an assist and it is encouraging that both South Americans seem to be coming to the fore in a period of the season where many commentators and pundits lazily suggest that overseas players tend to go missing, during the colder, hectic winter months. Before that Birmingham win though Norwich had a really poor spell at Carrow Road. Hopefully, the balance of the team, with Max Aarons and Dimitris Giannoulis at full-back providing solidity and width, this form is going to be improved.

Certainly this represents a great chance to start a run that will push them towards the playoffs. Cardiff fans seem to be somewhat split over whether the team has improved or not under Sabri Lamouchi, but the Frenchman can only work with the tools at his disposal. That means that although there is a solid set of defenders to work with, and in Ryan Wintle and Romaine Sawyers there is a decent technical base to build from, the big problem is the lack of attacking talent to score the goals required. The news this week that Callum Robinson will be missing for a few weeks will have been met with head-in-hands by most people connected with the club.

Sory Kaba and Kion Etete may well team up in a big man-big man partnership. However, this also plays into the hands of the Norwich captain Grant Hanley, who is more troubled by pace and movement than a physical battle.

The basis of this bet is the approach that Blackpool are likely to try and get a point at the Madejski.

McCarthy set his side up in a very unambitious 5-3-2 at Blackburn in midweek. This contributed to a match in which both sides struggled to create very many chances. The stifling tactics worked well to get Cardiff out of trouble for McCarthy a couple of seasons ago but it is yet to be seen that this is the best way to get Blackpool winning enough points to get out of the relegation zone.

Blackpool’s xG creation since McCarthy took over is 4.6 in 5 games, so less than 1xG per game. This is actually only better than a handful of teams, but one of the teams below them is Reading, The Royals are at 4.3xG created over the same period of time. This is not helped by their woeful away form, Paul Ince’s side are the most Jekyll & Hyde team in the whole EFL in terms of their difference in performance at home vs away.

The directness of the Reading attack probably isn’t the most ideal way to break Blackpool down though. The three central defenders of Blackpool will be prepared for a direct game and a mid-block could be quite effective for the Seasiders in this match. McCarthy probably isn’t the best exponent of a high-press, as seen for Blackburn’s goal in midweek, but in a low and mid block scenario there are few better coaches at Championship level for getting their teams drilled and organised.

Regardless, I don’t see Blackpool as an attacking threat at the moment and the fact that they want to stifle their opponents will lead to low-chance, and hopefully, low goals matches.

The price of the goals line in this match was a big surprise to me. The fact that under 2.5 goals is favourite seems to be generous for the overs,

Fair enough, West Brom are bang average over the last five matches in terms of both xG created and xG against (6.5xG and 7.1 xGA respectively), but that is still over 1xG both ways per match. However, it is the fact that Middlesbrough are on fire going forwards that encourages me to bet the overs in this match.

Boro are on 11xG created over the last five matches, over 2xG per match on their own. This well cultivated and fluid attacking system with Cameron Archer at the tip of a system using the Championship’s top scorer Chuba Akpom just in behind him and then Riley McGree supplying the bullets, and also firing them himself, means that there are multiple threats for opponents to try and contain. The use of Ryan Giles as an auxiliary left winger from left back and Hayden Hackney given licence to support the attack at any time means that Boro can be fairly open though as well. Their 9xGA over the last five games tells it’s own story about this, and means that taking Boro’s average match over this period produces 3.8xG all on their own.

The bookmakers’ pricing is probably influenced by the fact that West Brom’s home results have seen over 2.5 goals only hit once in the last ten matches. However, the tone of matches are often set by the more dominant side. Whilst West Brom I’m sure will have every intention of keeping Boro under wraps, Boro are probably the best side in the division at the moment and have the quality to bend the game to their will.

If this is the case then over 2.5 goals seems a good bet as 9 out the last 10 Boro away matches have gone over 2.5 goals. It really is a battle between two philosophies and it will be interesting to see which one wins out.

Preston North End’s season looks to be petering out to mid-table mediocrity. Consecutive draws against Luton Town and Hull City are the first draws for the Lilywhites since the 1^st October, bringing to an end a run of 19 league matches that ended in either victory or defeat. It is a 9/10 split between wins and loses across those 19 games. Goals, as much as draws, have been relatively rare for Preston North End across this season. A tally of 37 goals conceded is the second-lowest in the Championship’s bottom 12, an average of 1.2 a game. Their tally of just 28 goals scored however is the second lowest in the entire division, an average of just 0.88 per match. Ryan Lowe’s side tend to not give many goals away, but tend to not score many goals either.

Wigan Athletic, like the rest of the Championship’s bottom three, have some work to do if they are to get out of the relegation zone. There is a sense however of growing optimism under their third manager this season. Popular former player Shaun Maloney took the managerial helm in late January. In his four games so far, he has overseen three draws and a 1-0 win over Huddersfield Town, collecting three clean sheets and conceding just once. It is a welcome return for what has been the league’s joint-worst defensive record up till now, Jack Whatmough the regular in the heart of the improved Latics defence. Whatmough in turn provided the late winner in the Huddersfield victory, Ashley Fletcher the only other player to so far score during the Maloney tenure at Wigan Athletic.

This weekend’s meeting at Deepdale sees one of the league’s lowest-scoring, least eventful sides face off against opponents who look to have turned a corner with their defensive solidity. At this stage, the points are certainly needed more for Wigan Athletic, who will be eyeing up a fourth clean sheet in five matches under their latest manager. With neither team demonstrating an exceptionally potent attack at the moment, it certainly feels like a low-scoring affair could be on the cards here.

There was a huge quality gap at Pride Park last weekend as Charlton Athletic were beaten 2-0 by Derby County. Similar can be expected at The Valley on Saturday when league leaders Sheffield Wednesday arrive.

Mandela Egbo and Todd Kane are unavailable for the Addicks, while Miles Leaburn has missed the last three matches with a hip injury. Mallik Wilks is a doubt for Wednesday, while Ben Heneghan, Michael Ihiekwe and Callum Paterson are sidelined. Jesurun Rak-Sakyi and Corey Blackett-Taylor are Charlton’s biggest threats, but without Leaburn on the pitch they are not as fierce, enabling opposition sides to double up on them defensively.

Both teams to score is definitely a runner here, only four teams have scored more home league goals than the Addicks this season, where the South Londoners have also kept just six clean sheets in 31 league outings. There is value in Sheffield Wednesday’s outright price at close to evens, and therefore taking the visitors and BTTS could be an enticing angle if you are looking for a bigger price.

If Dean Holden tries to fight fire with fire, the chances are that Wednesday comfortably come out on top, they are the better side in almost every position. Off-pitch issues are affecting performances on the pitch at Charlton.

We are entering the stage of the season where how much teams have to play for can significantly impact performance levels, and we could get in front of the market with this fixture.

With Jevani Brown unavailable for off-pitch reasons, Exeter City are not as dangerous in the final third, the Grecians have only picked up one point in their last four, drawing a blank in each of their last three games. Cheick Diabate and Rekeem Harper are unavailable for the hosts although Josh Coley is in contention.

Whereas the visitors will be without Fejiri Okenabirhie and Harvey Knibbs while George Thomas remains a doubt. Cambridge United have stuck by Mark Bonner this season and they picked up a huge 1-0 win over Oxford United last weekend, the U’s beat the Grecians earlier on in the campaign and Exeter have struggled against those towards the bottom end this season.

There are similarities to be drawn between the two clubs this season, and it would not be a surprise to see Gary Caldwell’s men slip to something of an underwhelming bottom half finish, with their cushion on the bottom three standing at nine points. Tentatively opposing the hosts feels like a smart position to be in heading into this fixture, and there is enough value to keep two outcomes onside at a backable price.

Ipswich Town have a nice run of fixtures on the horizon that could see them force their way back into the automatic promotion race. The Tractor Boys goals feels like a nice way to keep them onside in this period while their outright prices continue to be very short, as they have been for most of the season.

MK Dons are in the thick of a relegation battle, Mark Jackson has not been able to inspire the squad to higher performance levels than were being produced under Liam Manning and they were thumped 5-2 at Sheffield Wednesday last weekend. Daniel Harvie and Ethan Robson are doubtful, while Dean Lewington is out and Joshua Kayode’s season is over.

The visitors will be without Lee Evans and George Edmundson, while Massimo Luongo came in for his first appearance since arriving in January last time out. Ipswich may make this game feel like a home match with the support they are taking to Stadium MK, they will create plenty of chances.

Nine points off the play-off places with 16 games left, Peterborough United have an exceptionally high standard to reach if they want to end this season with a top six finish. Posh have a strong record against bottom end sides this season, their firepower regularly able to demonstrate the clear gulf in quality that exists between the top and bottom of the third tier. What has held Darren Ferguson’s side back however is a poor record against the teams right up at the top of the table. You have to go back to the 16^th August and a 2-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday for Peterborough’s last win over a side in the current top seven. It is this poor record in the crucial top end matches that have held Posh back from being right up in the mix as the final third of the season gets underway. For all that the likes of top scorer Jonson Clarke-Harris, Ephron Mason-Clarke and Kwame Poku can offer with their quality, it has not been able to sufficiently compete with the Championship pursuers in 2022-23.

Peterborough face both of the top two in their next three matches, starting with a home match against second place Plymouth Argyle. The Pilgrims booked their place in the EFL Trophy Final via a penalty shootout in midweek, continuing a fine overall record at Home Park this season. Argyle have almost been as good away from Devon though. A 1-0 loss at Hillsborough is their only league defeat on the road since mid-August. Only Barnsley, Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich Town have a stronger away record than Steven Schumacher’s side. Callum Burton is sufficiently filling the void left by injured star goalkeeper Michael Cooper. The loss of central defender Dan Scarr hasn’t damaged the quality in the Argyle backline. The likes of Finn Azaz, Callum Wright and Jay Matete all continue to impress in midfield. Pacy Scot Ryan Hardie is Plymouth’s main striker but can be either partnered or changed for quality in the form of Birmingham City loanee Sam Cosgrove, Kiwi striker Ben Waine, or the returning Niall Ennis.

Plymouth Argyle’s match at London Road this weekend is another opportunity to demonstrate their promotion credentials, and they are within their right to carry confidence heading into the game. Peterborough United have continually fallen short in these key top end clashes this season, both at home and on the road. Ferguson’s 4-2-3-1 has quality, but Schumacher’s 3-4-2-1 has shown across this season to have more.

Promotion chasing Stevenage will be desperate to get back to winning ways as they take on underperforming Tranmere Rovers this weekend.

Boro go into the game on the back of their 2-0 loss away at Stockport County last time out and will be eager to get all three points to keep their push for League One on track. Speaking after their last match, boss Steve Evans said his side had ‘really good’ spells in the second-half and if they can play like that on Saturday then they should have enough to pick up all three points. On the injury front, Reading loan goalkeeper Jokull Andresson picked up an injury last Tuesday in the 2-2 draw against Newport County which saw the Hertfordshire outfit delve into the transfer market to sign Accrington Stanley stopper Toby Savin on an emergency loan deal and the 21-year-old isn’t a bad alternative.

Stevenage have been tough to beat this term and have lost only five of their 30 games so far this season which is the same number as table toppers Leyton Orient. They are 2nd in the league table for a reason and also have the second best defensive record in the division so will be confident that they can get a big win on Saturday.

Tranmere will just want this campaign to end now as they sit down in a disappointing 15th place in the League Two table. They lost 2-0 at home to Mansfield Town in their last outing and their manager Micky Mellon said the performance wasn’t ‘good enough’ again as pressure mounts on him from sections of the fanbase. Young striker Charlie Jolley, who has recently penned a new contract, is still not ready to return to training just yet as he recovers from injury but the club could do with him back soon for a bit of energy and enthusiasm up top with the team only scoring once in their last four matches now.

Tranmere aren’t in good form at all right now and there is a bit of doom and gloom over Prenton Park at the moment as their hopes of making the play-offs slip away fast so they are there for the taking. They have won just once in their last five and have only won twice in their last nine which shows they are struggling for results.

Stockport County are flying as they prepare to make the trip up to Cumbria to take on Barrow.

The hosts go into the game on the back of their shock 1-0 away win against Bradford City last time out courtesy of winger Josh Kay’s first-half goal. Speaking afterwards, boss Pete Wild said the result meant ‘everything’ to his side but they were slightly fortunate to get the three points because they only 22% possession.

The Bluebirds remain without attacker Josh Gordon which is a blow as he has scored 11 goals so far this season which is more than the likes of Ged Garner, Billy Waters and Kay who are playing in attacking areas instead of him whilst he steps up his recovery from injury. Prior to their win against the Bantams, Barrow were in dismal form and had won just once in 12 league games which has seen them drop down from the play-off positions to 12th. They will be hoping that their victory last weekend can inspire them to start picking up more results but their next opponents should have too much quality against them based on results over recent times.

Stockport are now 4th in the league table, a point behind 3rd place Carlisle United, and are looking a good bet for back-to-back promotions now after winning the National League title last term. They beat Rochdale 2-1 last time out with in-form midfielder Will Collar scoring both their goals and their manager Dave Challinor said he was ‘pleased’ with the performance and will be expecting more of the same from his players this weekend at Holker Street.

On the selection front, key defender Fraser Horsfall is back after his spell on the sidelines which is a major boost and he will compete with Akil Wright and Neill Byrne for his place back in the team. In addition, the Hatters have signed free agent Jacob Davenport, formerly of Manchester City and Blackburn Rovers, to provide them win more competition and depth in the middle of the park and his arrival has paved the way for out of favour Connor Lemonheigh-Evans to go out on loan to National League table toppers Notts County. Stockport have won their last five games on the spin and will take some stopping now as they look to make Barrow their next victims.

Just a few weeks back, it felt like the contest for League Two’s third automatic place was a two-horse race between Carlisle United and Northampton Town. Fast forward to the end of February, and both Stockport County and Mansfield Town are now within touching distance.

Mansfield’s assault on the automatic places comes on the back of a run of four wins in five, including a 4-0 demolition of Carlisle at Brunton Park where the Stags had scored all of their goals before half-time. Nigel Clough has had to adapt his team to injury setbacks, but looks to have settled for now on a 3-5-2 formation, spearheaded by the ex-Burton Albion pair of Lucas Akins and January signing Davis Keillor-Dunn. The latter already has a goal and two assists since joining right at the end of the January window, a player proving to be as impactful on the team as Alfie Kilgour. The 24-year-old brought to an end a lifelong association with Bristol Rovers upon moving to Mansfield, and looks an outstanding presence in the centre of defence with James Perch and Riley Harbottle either side of him. Creative wing-back Stephen McLaughlin is currently unavailable for Mansfield, with Jordan Bowery slotting into his role at left-wing-back with Elliott Hewitt on the opposite flank.

Salford City sit just a place below Mansfield Town at current, but their position as a play-off side feels vulnerable. Inconsistency is a big problem for the Ammies, who have won four of their ten league matches since the turn of the year, in turn also losing four and drawing twice. The presence of giant striker Matt Smith and in-form forward Conor McAleny provides threat, but is not being supported by a solid defensive record. 14 points from the last 30 available is mid-table form, no where near sufficient for play-offs when the chasing pack stretches down into the bottom half of the League Two table.

Another key game for Mansfield Town presents another opportunity for the Stags to keep their strong form and promotion push going. Up against an inconsistent Salford City, who have three teams directly below them that are all within touching distance, a win will be fully expected by the Field Mill crowd. The hosts should be fancied here.

After starting his tenure with three defeats, Jody Morris collected this first win as Swindon Town head coach. The 44-year-old is tasked with being the successor to the departing Scott Lindsey, and taking Swindon Town back to League One, most likely through the League Two play-offs.

Morris has inherited a squad that possesses some of the standout players in the fourth division, the main one among them being striker Charlie Austin. The 33-year-old began his EFL career with the Robins back in 2009, going on to score 125 goals at Premier League and Championship level with multiple clubs. Austin has four goals in six appearances since returning to the County Ground, nowadays partnered up top by either Luke Jephcott or Jacob Wakeling in a 5-3-2 setup. Ellis Iandolo and Remeao Hutton are key to this formation in attacking full-back roles. Forward Rushian Hepburn-Murphy is back available following suspension, but Swindon will now face the next five games without tenacious midfielder Saidou Khan following disciplinary action by the FA.

Relegation-threatened Harrogate Town are rarely convincing, but keep collecting sufficient results to keep their heads above water. The Sulphurites have only won one of their last 10 matches in League Two, but have also accompanied this with five draws, scoring in seven of their games across this 10-match period. Striker Luke Armstrong, versatile midfielder Alex Pattison and tenacious captain Josh Falkingham are the key assets in Simon Weaver’s side. The long-standing manager has mixed his formations across this season, currently favouring a 4-4-2 that features a backline of Matty Foulds, Tom Eastman, Anthony O’Connor and Toby Sims, all four of whom are January signings. Southampton loanee Kazeem Olaigbe has started each of Harrogate’s last four games and is quickly catching the eye out wide on the left. His contributions so far include a goal and an assist in a 2-2 home draw against Crewe Alexandra last weekend.

Swindon still await the return of influential Wales International Jonny Williams from injury, but the Robins still possess quality many others in the fourth tier would be envious of. One of the higher scorers in League Two this season, Swindon average 1.3 goals scored a game, the same as what opponents Harrogate Town have averaged across their 31 matches this season. Swindon were unconvincing in their 2-1 win at Salford last weekend, and still for now feel a side under Morris that can be got on despite maybe having superior quality. Harrogate need to take advantage of this opportunity.

A game between two sides looking to return to winning ways after back-to-back defeats.

Dean Brennan’s Barnet are having their second big wobble of the season at present, the loss of key defenders in Danny Collinge, Ben Wynter, Dominic Revan and Sam Beard having a sizeable impact on their side’s defensive shape of late. Aldershot Town, meanwhile, have been on the end of defeats against Wrexham and Dagenham and Redbridge with McNeilly chopping and changing of late, unsure how best to replace key signing Inih Effiong and unsure whether Corey Jordan is the answer to partner defensive leader Tyler Cordner.

Barnet are continuing to score goals, having done so in each of their last 14 matches. They have conceded in each of their last five and eight of their last ten, so both teams scoring has become commonplace in their matches. The visitors come into this having seen both teams score in each of their last three and six of their last nine. They have also seen both teams score in four of their last five away from home.

Both managers are principled in what they demand from their sides, regardless of the selection difficulties they currently face, so expect both sides to play on the front foot here, with confidence at one end and the trapdoor firmly open at the other.

A game with plenty riding on it for both sides but also a game that is likely to be pretty dull.

Boreham Wood specialise in dull and dull makes Luke Garrard happy. He wants his side to be the best side in the league defensively. He is demanding of his team in their shape and it has worked – they are the only side in the division yet to concede more than two goals in a league match. They have been even more solid of late, leading to an unbeaten run of nine matches – eight of those have seen two or fewer goals scored. They have conceded one or fewer in eight of their last nine and two of their last 15. It is no coincidence that run has coincided with the signings of David Agbontohoma and Chris Bush, who have provided more speed and composure to a defence that was beginning to age.

While The Wood are looking to escape the National League via the play-offs, Scunthorpe United are doing everything to avoid escaping the division the wrong way. Jimmy Dean is clearly following on from Michael Nelson’s approach of making his side hard to beat – Scunny have reduced their shots conceded per game average from 15 to under 10. There have been less than three goals scored in four of their last six matches and the additions of Aaron Chapman, available again after personal issues, Ben Richards-Everton and Harvey Bunker are only helping to solidify the spine of the team.

Yet another huge game towards the bottom end of the table and I’m backing Gateshead to come away with a result.

Things could not be going worse for Maidstone United right now. Interim manager George Elokobi has inherited a mess from predecessor Hakan Hayrettin, who was showing few signs of being able to turn their season around. Elokobi has been unable to stop the rot, seeing his side pick up one point from his first six league matches, meaning the Stones have now picked up one point from their last 12 in the league.

Their difficulties are summed by their defensive record – they have conceded two or more goals in six of their last seven matches and nine of their last 12. It’s unhelpful to Elokobi that that he has had to make a change to his back four or five in five of his six league matches in charge while star midfielder Sam Corne has now been ruled out for the rest of the season.

They won’t get much respite this weekend when Gateshead travel south. I’m enthused by Mike Williamson’s side. They started the season as one of the most enjoyable sides in the division to watch but a lack of stability derailed their progressed. Since Boxing Day, Williamson has been able to select a side that isn’t choc-full of short-term footballers and their form has improved as a result, winning four and drawing three of their last nine matches – the defeats coming against Wrexham and Southend United. They have created an average of 1.9xG over their last nine games, making them one of the best sides in the division at creating chances, and they are creating around 0.6xG more than they are conceding.

Marc White spoke in typically jovial fashion at the end of his post-match press conference on Tuesday, believing his side would beat Wrexham. The reality is, they’re likely to be pummelled.

Let’s start with Dorking Wanderers. They are 19^th in the league table having lost 16 of their 31 league matches and ten of their 15 away matches. No side in the division has conceded more than the 73 goals they have conceded. They have conceded three or more goals in nine of those 15 away matches and two or more in 13. They have conceded two or more goals in each of their last six matches and nine of their last ten. The above means it’s unsurprising that they have seen 74% of their league matches finish with over 2.5 goals, as well as 67% of their away matches. Four of their last six and seven of their last ten have finished with three or more goals. They lost right-back George Francomb to injury on Tuesday, summing up the lack of stability in selection that remains a problem – White has made an average of 4.25 changes per game over his last eight selections.

Then there is Wrexham. They have won 24 of their 32 league matches. They have won 16 of their last 20 and ten of their last 11. They have won 14 of their 15 league matches at the Racecourse Ground. They have scored two or more goals in each of their last 11, three or more in five of those 11 and four of their last seven. The Welsh club have seen 81% of their home matches, 66% of their matches overall and nine of their last ten in the league finish with three or more goals scored. Wrexham have scored three or more in nine of their 15 home matches and in eight of 11 against sides 9^th or lower in the table. They have scored three or more in seven of their nine league matches against sides in the bottom six.

This could be a massacre as the biggest budget in the division meets one of its three part-time outfits.

Fylde head into the weekend after an incredibly disappointing result midweek, with a 3-1 loss to 14th place Hereford which only increases what is arguably the most important fixture of this league so far. These sides are currently level on points, Fylde having a game in hand. If King’s Lynn win here, they’ll be top of the league by 3 points with a better goal difference than Fylde.

The home side will certainly be looking to bounce back from their loss although this is a huge test for them. There’s a lot of reliance on goalscorers Nick Haughton and Mo Faal turning up here – it’s games like this that win you trophies. On top of this, losing their last game does not paint the whole picture, prior to that Fylde were 10 games unbeaten. However, there will certainly be a mental challenge to face as most of this momentum will have disappeared.

Both teams should be scoring in this fixture. There’s only been one home game this season where Fylde haven’t scored – and this came back in August. Even with the pressure on them I expect them to find the back of the net at least once. I’d argue they have a better side on paper and certainly have proven goalscorers.

King’s Lynn will also be absolutely fired up for this one. Fylde dropping points midweek allows them to go top of the league and they’ll go into this one knowing the momentum of their opponents has been knocked. Gold Omotayo scored a first half winner for the Linnets on Tuesday, being their top scorer this season he’s certainly the man to look out for. To top this off, Fylde have conceded in all three of their last home games – to sides with much less quality and structure than their opponents on Saturday.

The home side head into the weekend in 2nd place, although a recent dip in form has certainly tarnished their chances of getting their hands on the trophy – Ebbsfleet’s sublime form also hasn’t helped. However, they’ll be looking to remain within the battle and also look to have the best possible position to go into the playoffs with. They’ve managed to rejuvenate some strong form recently, with 8 points from a possible 12 in their last 4 games. However, this will be their biggest test yet with Oxford 2 spots below them with very strong form.

Oxford are currently unbeaten in 9 games, winning 6 of them. Joshua Parker and Zac McEachran have performed fantastically in recent games and will be looking to continue this form in what will be a tough battle against a side that are arguably better on paper.

I expect both teams to score here. Oxford have had the better form although Dartford have a slightly better starting 11 – this has led them to be in very similar league positions. The deficit may remain 9 points, although Oxford will be looking to shorten that and their current form will give them the momentum to believe they can. These sides have met twice in the last year, both seeing both teams score.

Everton have hired Sean Dyche to be the man to ensure they avoid relegation before building for next season. He has made a solid start to his Toffees tenure and has already seen his side climb out of the bottom three.

Everton have won both of their home games 1-0 since Dyche came in. They restricted both Leeds and Arsenal to very few clear cut chances. However, their defensive frailties were showcased when they made the trip to Anfield and I expect Aston Villa to be a threat going forward this weekend.

Since Unai Emery took over at Aston Villa, they have scored in every league match. They are averaging 1.7 goals per game across his 10 matches in charge. More than half of his five league wins in charge have come on the road. While they will want to improve their form at Villa Park before the season finishes, Emery will be keen to ensure his side continue to look dangerous in away matches.

Everton haven’t beaten Villa in their last six meetings and they have conceded in each of the last three games against them at Goodison Park. The Toffees are conceding 1.17 goals per game at home this season. While things have improved in Dyche’s early matches, it’s unreasonable to think he has solved all of their defensive issues in this short space of time.

The Manchester City players were visibly frustrated when they left the pitch on Wednesday night. They earned a 1-1 draw ahead of a second leg at the Etihad but it was yet another game where City looked far from their best. Pep Guardiola has set the standards high since joining the club. The team are renowned for their attacking threat and flawless execution on the ball. They have fallen slightly short of those standards this season but they are still firmly in the hunt of all of the major trophies.

Bournemouth could find themselves in the firing line of a City side that want to respond. Pep’s team beat the Cherries 4-0 earlier this season and will be wanting to flex their attacking muscle yet again. Gary O’Neil’s side secured their first win since the World Cup last weekend but this weekend’s fixture is a much tougher assignment.

The Cherries have struggled for goals since the restart. They are averaging just 0.56 per game; significantly less than their opponents average of 1.78. City aren’t just any opponent. They are the most efficient attacking team in the league and they are averaging 2.35 goals per game this season. Manchester City have won three of their last five matches and this bet has landed in all three they have won.