Wolves make the trip to the south coast this Saturday afternoon, where they’ll face a Brighton side who have stumbled ever so slightly in recent weeks. The Seagulls were humbled at the County Ground midweek, losing by three goals to one to Nottingham Forest. This lacklustre performance in itself hasn’t happened so often this season but facing a Wolves side on the up, it could be a difficult afternoon. In contrast, the visitors have strung a succession of positive results together, steering them clear of the relegation zone. They were last seen at home to Palace on Tuesday night, brushing them aside by two goals to nil.

There’s still a lot on the line for both clubs in this fixture as one chases a European dream, the other, a spot in the Premier League next season. Wolves can reach the magic forty points total with a victory and that’s achievable. Although, I do feel they’d settle for a share of the spoils. I have to mention their talisman in midfield, Ruben Neves. The Portuguese star is an extremely important part of the jigsaw and his attacking output has been of the highest importance. His scoring record sits at a goal every 0.3 games, one every 297 minutes to be exact! That is an excellent return for a defensive midfielder who does most his work in the duels around the field.

As good as Brighton have been throughout this campaign; this handicap line has only been covered three out of eleven times at the Amex in the Premier League. Therefore I’m keen to get the away side onside. With us taking the +2 handicap line this also means that we can afford a loss by one goal and the bet still returns a winner.

Evan Ferguson is a doubt for the hosts but the usual suspects in Kaoru Mitoma and Solly March are set for starts on either wing. The aforementioned duo can cause problems for any defence, but I do fancy Wolves to keep them at bay and the cushion of the selection gives us some breathing room.

So, time to look at some further stats! Wolves have gained maximum points in three of their previous five matches, so there’s the strong form. Secondly, the +2 handicap on Wolves has returned a winner in seven of their last eight. With this in mind and the fact that their captain Ruben Neves has returned to the side, I’m excited about the prospect of this selection.

More than anything though, I fancy this value priced bet due to the statistics being completely in our favour. Back Wolves on a +2 handicap and we’re set for a good run for our money!

Automatics are decided. Luton Town and Middlesbrough are play-off bound. The interest in the Championship now turns to the race for the final two play-off spots, where just four points separate fifth place Coventry City from 12th place Swansea City. A strong run of just two defeats from the beginning of February has seen the Sky Blues climb up into the top six, with recent drama including goalkeeper Ben Wilson scoring a 95th minute equaliser at Blackburn Rovers. Mark Robins’ squad possesses some of the best players anywhere in the division, particularly Swedish striker Viktor Gyökeres and Dutch midfielder Gustavo Hamer. Both have influential attacking roles in Coventry’s 3-5-2. Gyökeres is partnered by Matt Godden up top, Ganer has Josh Eccles and Liam Kelly alongside him in midfield. Jake Bidwell and Manchester City loanee Josh Wilson-Esbrand are rotated in the left-wing-back role. Fankaty Dabo and Arsenal loanee Brooke Norton-Cuffy are rotated on the right. For a team that began the season bottom of the table and having to play exclusively away games until their Coventry home became usable again, the end of this season could complete a truly remarkable story of recovery.

Birmingham City are set for yet another finish in the bottom half of the Championship table. Persistent issues away from the pitch have left the Blues as a second tier sleeping giant for some time now, and it is because of those problems that John Eustace deserves a lot of credit for the season he has delivered at St. Andrew’s. Birmingham may have had patchy spells across the campaign, but have been moulded into a decent side with some problematic personnel. Dynamic Dutch forward Tahith Chong and aerially dominant striker Lukas Jutkiewicz are among the standouts, whilst Blues have also been bleeding in the latest batch of upcoming youngsters as the season draws to a close. Both George Hall and Jordan James have made more than 30 appearances in the Birmingham midfield this season. Alfie Chang is closing in on 700 league minutes in midfield. Jobe Bellingham, the younger brother of England International Jude, has started each of Birmingham’s last two games on the right wing in a 4-2-3-1.

A bumper crowd is anticipated at the Coventry Building Society Arena this weekend as the Sky Blues look to keep their Premier League dream alive. The play-off race is tight, but Mark Robins’ side are in a great position with just two games left in the regular season. Birmingham City in the past have proven a tricky test for Coventry however, and possess quality that their West Midlands opponents will need to handle. These two shared the St. Andrew’s Stadium at one point, now the former temporary tenant is looking to take its own ground into the top flight.

Burnley sealed the title on Tuesday night at Ewood Park in a manner in which Championship defences have become accustomed to, a Manuel Benson screamer off his left foot after stepping in from the right.

However, that was Burnley’s first, and only, shot on target in the match, coming in the 67th minute. Blackburn were able to keep Burnley away from their area by doing well in possession but also engaging the ball all over the pitch in the middle third. Burnley were unable to play their usual patient and controlled brand of football and there was a definite sense that they were struggling to create the quality of chances that had been seen throughout the season so far.

Prior to the Blackburn match, Burnley had lost to QPR at home, though they did dominate that match, and also dropped points at Rotherham and Reading. With no points record or title to play for now, one must question, what is the motivation for Vincent Kompany’s side now?

Bristol City have arguably had no achievement motivation for a few weeks now. Their performances have remained good though. A lot of young players have been brought into the side and all of them want to prove that they are at the appropriate level to be trusted to be involved in a play-off push for the Robins next season.

The bookmakers would probably have had Burnley odds on for this match at other times of the season, but they are still even money, and given recent Burnley results and performances that still seems too short to me, so we will back the other results in a double chance.

On the face of it, it is pretty incredible that Sunderland are the price that they are against Watford here. When the season began Sunderland had just come off the back of a lengthy spell in League One, whereas Watford were a Premier League outfit, but now Sunderland are the ones in the play-off positions and Watford are listing horribly in mid-table, looking like they could finish in the bottom half.

Sunderland are being very well coached by Tony Mowbray at the moment. It has been well established that the Black Cats have struggled without a main central forward for most of the season, but at this stage they have found a way to cope without one and still maintain a threat.

Jack Clarke has been outstanding for Sunderland this season and the left-winger’s threat has been key to exploiting that side, with Dennis Cirkin in support, that flank has been one of the strongest in the whole division. Amad Diallo, Patrick Roberts, Alex Pritchard, Joe Gelhardt and others are then able to work together on finding space, and playing intricate football to play through defences.

All this youthful exuberance and technique is not great news for Watford. At times they have looked cumbersome and slow in defensive areas. There is very little control of football matches for a team that has so many technically capable and experienced players within it.

News has also come out recently that the sale of Joao Pedro has been agreed for the summer. Pedro is Watford’s best player and this news is unlikely to provide much other than more unrest at a club which has been criticised on the pitch by their own head coach, and the ownership lambasted by the fans. Watford probably cannot wait for the season to end.

It is D-Day for Wigan, but thankfully for them, Reading are in the trenches alongside them and could be put under more pressure by a Wigan win. However, things are getting a bit desperate for the Berkshire side as well, and really only a win is good enough for them as well. This leads to a very interesting afternoon at the Madejski Stadium.

The problem that both sides have is the lack of goals in either team, All form lines lead to the same point, which is that under 2.5 goals looks like a really strong bet. Can either team change their spots enough to be able to go out and chase the victory successfully?

Reading have had four consecutive draws at home now, all of which were either 1-1 or 0-0. Even before that they had two 0-1 losses, so under 2.5 goals would obviously collect in all of those six matches. The performance data also backs up the low-margin results, none of matches went above 2.5xG in terms of chances created by either side.

Looking at Wigan’s away form doesn’t scream goals either, Eight of their last ten away matches have seen under 2.5 goals. Their 1-0 win away at Stoke could prove to be a blueprint for this match as well. Shaun Maloney has proven to be fairly adept at keeping their opponents at bay, and, going off usual form, Reading should be easier than most to manage offensively.

The aim for both sides is probably going to be to manage the risks in the early stages of the match before going out and trying to win it at a later stage. There is the possibility of a late flurry when both teams realise that a draw isn’t really good enough, certainly for Wigan, but the evidence is all there for a low-scoring game.

Thousands will pack into Home Park this weekend, raring for the chance to celebrate promotion come the full-time whistle. Having beaten Bristol Rovers 2-0 in midweek, Argyle sit five points clear of third place with two games to play. A win this Saturday guarantees a long-awaited return to the Championship, and the Pilgrims might not even need that if 3rd place Sheffield Wednesday don’t win their game at Shrewsbury Town.

A phenomenal home record has provided the main base of Plymouth’s promotion push, collecting 58 points from a possible 66 at Home Park. Any concerns that came from the loss of star goalkeeper Michael Cooper to injury have long been banished, with Steven Schumacher’s 3-4-2-1 an exciting, attack-minded setup that has scored 43 goals and conceded just 16 in home matches. Central defender Dan Scarr, wing-back Bali Mumba, deeper-lying midfielder Jordan Houghton, ball-carrying midfielder Jay Matete, attacking midfielders Finn Azaz and Callum Wright and pacy striker Ryan Hardie are all among the key men that have left Plymouth Argyle top of the table after 44 matches.

Burton Albion will get to enjoy the trip down to Devon knowing that they already secured a well-fought survival in League One. Rock bottom of the division after just seven matches, Dino Maamria deserves immense credit for a turnaround that has seen the Brewers possess a top-half record since his appointment in early September. High January turnover in turn has contributed to Burton’s survival, with goalkeeper Craig MacGillivray, centre-back Jasper Moon, left-wing-back Zac Ashworth, technical midfielder Mark Helm and prospect striker Dale Taylor all players that have arrived since the New Year and become key parts of Maamria’s 3-4-3 or 3-4-1-2. Sam Hughes is a commanding presence in defence, and often the target of set pieces that are either swung into the box by creative midfielder Joe Powell or throw into the box by fellow defender Conor Shaughnessy. Burton have recorded impressive home results in April alone against Barnsley, Sheffield Wednesday and Bolton Wanderers. It has been a different story against the top sides when away from home though. The Brewers have failed to win all but one of their away trips against teams in the current top nine, taking a point from Peterborough United back in the first half of the season.

Plymouth Argyle will always relish fixtures at Home Park with their record down in Devon, and have this season won games against Peterborough United, Bolton Wanderers, Accrington Stanley, Exeter City, Milton Keynes Dons, Cheltenham Town, Portsmouth, Charlton Athletic, Forest Green Rovers, Cambridge United and Bristol Rovers by at least a two-goal margin. Burton may well come to Plymouth looking to spoil the party, but their previous attempts to frustrate and hold back the top teams away from home have always proved unsuccessful. Expect home fans storming the Home Park turf at full-time this Saturday afternoon.

Paul Warne’s Derby County will be highly motivated in preparing to take on Portsmouth at Pride Park on Saturday.

The Rams are unbeaten in their last five, but may need to win their final two matches to keep their place inside the play-offs.

David McGoldrick will be raring to go having been very unfortunate to miss out on a place in the League One Team of the Season and there are no key injury absentees for the hosts.

Kieron Freeman, Denver Hume, Zak Swanson, Jay Mingi, Joe Morrell, Ryan Curtis and Jayden Reid are all likely to be sidelined for the visitors, while Reeco Hackett and Ryan Tunnicliffe missed out on the matchday squad last time out.

The Rams have conceded only three goals in their last five matches, finding their mojo at a crucial time, scoring only seven from 9.7 expected goals (xG) for in that period, averaging a very healthy 1.94 xGF per game.

With a trip to Sheffield Wednesday looming on the final day it is imperative that Derby take maximum points from this match, while Bolton Wanderers have a favourable home game against Fleetwood Town and Peterborough United host Bristol Rovers.

Oxford United ended a 17-game winless run by putting Cheltenham Town to the sword on Tuesday to pick up their first victory under Liam Manning.

The Yellows were fairly clinical and saw some of the bigger names in their attacking contingent step up to the plate.

Marcus Browne came up with a brace while Josh Murphy, possibly inspired by his twin brother’s efforts last weekend, was introduced from the bench to supply two assists.

Gatlin O’Donkor is back available for selection though Tyler Goodrham, who also got on the scoresheet against the Robins is a doubt and the Yellows will be without James Henry, Lewis Bate, Alex Gorrin and Sam Baldock.

Rovers have lost 19 of their last 24 matches, and their 0-0 draw at home to Fleetwood Town that scuppered us earlier this month was very one-sided, losing the shot count 3-15, with two of those shots coming from outside the box.

The bookmakers have looked fondly on Oxford all season and they are a short price to take all three points, but the Green are still opposable at the price given their hopeless run in the second half of the campaign.

Stevenage will be promoted to League One if they can beat a Grimsby Town side who have nothing to play for now.

Boro won 1-0 away at Swindon Town on Tuesday night to take a step closer to promotion courtesy of striker Jamie Reid’s first-half goal. It was a hard fought win for the Hertfordshire outfit and their boss Steve Evans said his players were ‘magnificent’ at the County Ground.

On the selection front, injuries in their goalkeeping department means Timothee Lo-Tutala remains on loan from Championship side Hull City and the former Tottenham Hotspur stopper has been a hit between the sticks so far and looks a promising talent. Stevenage have won 22 of their 44 games so far this season and deserve to be in 3rd place in table. They need just one win out of their remaining last games to go up but will hope to get the job done this weekend as opposed to away at Barrow on the final day. Evans’ side have hit form at the right time and have lost just once in their last seven league outings as they look to finally get over the line. In addition, they have won their last two home fixtures against AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster Rovers so will be confident of making it three in a row.

Grimsby are 11th in the table and have made a positive impression during their first year back in the Football League after sealing their return from the National League last year. Their recent results have been hit and miss but they were able to beat a poor Crewe Alexandra side 2-0 last time out after goals by midfielder Gavan Holohan and striker Danilo Orsi. Their manager Paul Hurst said he was ‘pleased’ with the performance from his team and that was the first time they have won back-to-back home games this season.

In terms of injury news, midfielder Owen Gallacher is back fit again and is an option in the middle of the park if Hurst decides to give a rest to the likes of Holohan, Alex Hunt or Harry Clifton. Grimsby were beaten 2-0 away at Tranmere Rovers in their last outing on their travels if they play like that against Stevenage they will lose again. Their form on the road isn’t too impressive recently and they have picked up three points just once in their last six away from Blundell Park in all competitions which shows they have a bit of homesickness.

Mansfield Town need to pick up all three points against an already safe Harrogate Town and will fancy their chances of doing so.

Despite losing 2-1 to champions Leyton Orient on Tuesday night, the Stags had 55% possession and 16 shots so if they can dominate like that again they should have no problems getting past their next opponents. In-form Davis Keillor-Dunn, who has scored two in two, was on the scoresheet for the hosts again and they have good quality options in attacking areas like Jordan Bowery, Lucas Akins and James Gale who can hurt teams at this level. Their boss Nigel Clough said it was a ‘disappointing’ result and will be looking to see his side bounce back with a win on Saturday to keep their push for the top seven alive. They are currently 8th in the table and are behind 7th position Bradford City on goal difference so could do with winning both of their remaining fixtures.

In terms of injury news, Elliott Hewitt went off against Orient on crutches but the Nottinghamshire club have a useful replacement in Riley Harbottle, who is on loan from Nottingham Forest. Mansfield were nine games unbeaten before their latest outing and if they can recapture that form they should return to winning ways here.

Harrogate have climbed to safety with ease in the end and will be delighted to remain a Football League club for another year. They won 3-2 away at Newport County on Tuesday evening courtesy of goals by winger Sam Folarin, midfielder George Thomson and striker Luke Armstrong. Their boss Simon Weaver has admitted that this campaign has been a ‘hard slog’ for his side and they can afford to put their feet up for the remaining two games of the season.

On the selection front, right wing-back Kayne Ramsey won’t play again this term but Toby Sims has proved to be a great option in his position and was rewarded with a new two-year deal earlier this month. Harrogate lost 3-1 away at Northampton Town last weekend before their win at Newport and gave away some soft goals to the Cobblers so Mansfield will be hoping the same will happen again. It has been a season of struggle for the Yorkshire club, hence why they are down in 20th position, and they have leaked a whopping 66 goals in their 44 matches which is a worry.

Gillingham are ending the season on a high and will look to keep their impressive Priestfield form going as they take on an inconsistent Newport County.

The Gills drew 2-2 away at promotion chasing Bradford City last time out courtesy of a last-gasp equaliser by the versatile Oli Hawkins, with midfielder Timothee Dieng scoring their opener in the first-half. Their boss Neil Harris said it was a ‘brilliant’ result and his side will look to keep their momentum going and could be promotion contenders next term based on their resurgence since the start of 2023.

In terms of selection news, young midfielder Josh Chambers is back from his loan at Worthing and could be handed some minutes over the next couple of games with the likes of Dieng, Ethan Coleman and Dom Jefferies currently occupying the positions in the middle of the park. Gillingham’s home results over recent times have been eye-catching and they are unbeaten in their last six on their own patch and have lost only once there in their last 11 fixtures which shows they have made it into a fortress. They have beaten table toppers Leyton Orient and drawn with 4th place Stockport County recently so should have no problems against their upcoming opponents.

Newport’s campaign has fizzled out and it is all about preparing for the summer transfer window for the South Wales outfit now as they keep one eye on their first full season under Graham Coughlan. They suffered a disappointing 3-2 loss at the hands of 20th place Harrogate Town last time out with striker Omar Bogle on their scoresheet for them twice. Their assistant manager Joe Dunne was on media duties and said afterwards that the players ‘lost concentration’ which suggests they are already on the beach now.

To make matters worse, they have a number of key players out of action at the moment such as versatile Scot Bennett, striker Offrande Zanzala and defenders Declan Drysdale, James Clarke and Adam Lewis which seriously limits the options at Coughlan’s disposal. It hasn’t been the best of seasons for Newport and they will just want it to end now with Dunne also saying earlier this week that their players are ‘maxed’ out which means their next two fixtures will just be a formality as they prepare for a very tricky test against Gillingham.

Leyton Orient’s season is over and they can afford to take their foot off the gas as they prepare to face a Stockport County side who are looking to join them in League One next season.

The O’s have won the title already and can use these remaining couple of fixtures to give some of their youngsters and fringe players the chance to show what they can do. They won 2-1 away at Mansfield Town on Tuesday night courtesy of goals by attacking pair Charlie Kelman and Ruel Sotiriou and their boss Richie Wellens said afterwards that his players played ‘really well’ and they are worthy champions this season.

Defender Shadrach Ogie was sent off in the game at Field Mill so the London club will have to decide who to bring in to replace him, with options available there such as Dan Happe and Tom James. Leyton Orient need to find the motivation from somewhere to compete over the next couple of weeks and their attention now will surely be on the summer and next term in the third tier. They lost 2-0 away at Gillingham earlier this month which shows even though they won against the Stags, their performance levels could slump again and there is no doubt they are in for a tough test this Saturday.

Stockport simply need to win at Brisbane Road this weekend to keep their hopes of sneaking into the automatic promotion places alive. The Hatters need a win to secure their place in the play-offs as well so will go all out for a result in the capital. They won 1-0 at home to relegated Rochdale last weekend with Isaac Olaofe on the scoresheet in the first-half to keep their momentum going. Their manager Dave Challinor said he wants to feel more ‘comfortable’ in matches which suggests he wants more goals from his team.

The North West outfit have been dealt a blow with striker Kyle Wootton out for the rest of the campaign with a knee injury but they have useful players to pick from in his position such as Olaofe, Jack Stretton and the experienced Paddy Madden which highlights the strength in depth they have in their ranks. Stockport are a tough nut to crack and will be confident of going to Orient and getting a win based on the fact they are unbeaten in their last 11 league outings and have lost just once in their last 18.

Another week, another selection involving Boreham Wood and very few goals being scored.

Boreham Wood are one of few sides in need of a result on the final day with a point securing their place in the top seven. Victory will appeal to Luke Garrard and his team but the end result will be the same whether they win or draw – an away tie in their play-off eliminator.

It means that Boreham Wood have no reason push to score more goals after they get the first and that suits them just fine – The Wood are a side that like to get ahead in games and protect what they’ve got. They have won seven and drawn four of the 11 home games they have taken the lead in with just 18 more goals scored in those matches. The Wood have scored just seven goals in their last nine matches, four of those coming against basement side Maidstone United, and 15 of their last 17 matches have finished under 2.5 goals, the outliers coming against the two sides at either end of the division.

Yeovil Town are uninspired themselves at present, their relegation confirmed after a 3-0 defeat in Wrexham. Mark Cooper has regularly bemoaned his side’s inability to score goals and that shows with his team scoring ten goals in their last 17 league matches. Yeovil have averaged 1.07xG since the start of March, only hitting more than 1.2xG in a game once – against a Solihull Moors side that have nothing to play for.

I’m backing Dorking Wanderers to end the season on a high despite their safety being secured and them having little to play for.

Marc White’s side have won four and drawn two of their last eight to secure that survival and their record is even better at home, winning five and drawing one of their last seven, the only defeat coming against 4^th place Woking. A key reason to their improved form is an ability to grind out results, keeping four clean sheets in their last seven and continuing to earn results post-survival being confirmed, drawing away at Gateshead and Wealdstone. In front of their home fans on the final day, I can see them signing off in style.

It helps that they take on a Scunthorpe United side that have given up for the season. The Iron have picked up one point from their last seven, scoring just two goals and conceding 14. They were battered at Notts County, toothless in pivotal games against York City and Torquay United and have effectively made up the numbers against Gateshead, Oldham Athletic, Aldershot Town and Southend United, mustering a measly average of 0.77xG over those four games. Jimmy Dean has tinkered with his team with a view to next season and a big focus has turned towards off-field issues with new chairman David Hilton forced to backtrack on a couple of statements made ahead of next season.

Scunny are a club in a mess and evidently can’t wait for the season to be over.

One of the finest title races in English professional football has now ended and Notts County were the losers. However, they haven’t taken their foot off the gas.

Notts knew they had all but lost the title following their 3-2 defeat at Wrexham yet they have responded by beating 4th place Woking 3-0 and relegated Maidstone United 5-2 without having to get out of second gear and despite changing their team around to manage knocks and illness.

Over their last 14 matches, Notts have averaged 2xG for and less than 1xG against. They have won ten of those matches and all ten victories have been by more than one goal. They have scored three or more in nine of those matches and kept four clean sheets in their last six. It spells bad news for a York City that have crawled over the finish line, a late equaliser against Aldershot Town securing their survival thanks to Torquay United’s draw with Altrincham. York have lost five of their last seven away from home and each of their last five defeats have seen them concede two or three goals. The Minstermen come into this having nothing to play for beyond pride and if Notts County take the lead here, it’s hard to see them being overly motivated to turn things around.

Two sides with nothing to play for having seen their seasons effectively finished last weekend.

At Altrincham, Torquay United conceded a 91st minute penalty around the same time Maidenhead United and York City scored important equalisers, leaving the Gulls three points and seven goals adrift of safety. The Gulls mounted an unlikely charge towards safety with five wins in a row but Gary Johnson’s lack of faith in his reserves meant him throwing out the same XI game after game and it caught up with them. They have conceded nine goals in their last three matches and were trounced by Chesterfield. A couple of players have played through the pain barrier and it’s hard to imagine them doing the same with relegation now all but confirmed.

Wrexham secured the title with their victory over Boreham Wood last weekend and they haven’t been afraid to acknowledge that they have enjoyed the celebrations. However, Phil Parkinson was keen to stress that he wants his team to set a record that won’t be beaten and they are also in competition with Notts County to set records for most goals scored and best goal difference. There is also the small matter of Paul Mullin finding himself three goals short of Macaulay Langstaff’s total in the race for the golden boot. Wrexham have plenty of reasons to head to the Southwest and score goals.

Kidderminster head into this one on blistering form, winning all 5 of their last game including a 2-0 away win against league leaders Fylde. They’ve also conceded one goal in their last 6 games – a penalty given away in a 2-1 win away at Southport. The reverse fixture played at Latimer Park resulted in a 3-0 win to the Harriers, I have no doubts that they’ll go into this one with all the momentum.

A win here would also push their promotion chances, currently sat 3

spots away with one game to play and one point away. It’s a situation where they need to give everything they’ve got, and with the form they’ve been on recently it should certainly be enough. The Aggborough often pulls in large crowds and I’m certain this will play a large role in their performance on Saturday.

Kettering sit in a dangerous position going into the last game of the season, a Blyth Spartans win would see them relegated if they don’t get points here. They face a Hereford side who are finishing comfortably mid-table, there is certainly a chance that they can pull something from the game. Despite the importance of the game, I really can’t see Kettering getting something here. It will be played in front of a large crowd with tons of momentum from their previous wins and their

playoff push. The home side are unbeaten in their last 5 home games and I expect them to increase this record.