Bolton Wanderers v Portsmouth
Bolton Wanderers are a juicy price at even money ahead of hosting desperately out of form Portsmouth on Saturday.
Ian Evatt has upgraded his attacking contingent this week with Dan N’Lundulu arriving from Southampton on loan, while Amadou Bakayoko has left to join Forest Green Rovers. That said, Dapo Afolayan looks set to leave the club and is very unlikely to feature this weekend under those circumstances.
Jack Iredale is out with a long-term injury, but has a chance of returning this season, while Gethin Jones and Ricardo Santos will come back into Evatt’s defensive selection options. The Trotters have conceded just once in their last five league games, and it was from a set piece.
Portsmouth are looking to bring in a goalkeeper on emergency loan after Josh Griffiths was recalled by West Bromwich Albion. Pompey cut short the loan of Josh Koroma from Huddersfield Town and have signed Ryley Towler from Bristol City.
Pompey have won just one of 14 in the league, and their name alone is appearing to command more respect from the bookmakers. Louis Thompson is back in the fold, but Clark Robertson, Jayden Reid, Joe Rafferty, Tom Lowery and Jay Mingi will likely miss the fixture.
Charlton Athletic v Barnsley
Charlton Athletic host Barnsley off the back of their respectable 3-0 defeat at Manchester United in the Carabao Cup quarter-final in midweek, with the Tykes hoping to build a cushion inside the play-off places.
Chuks Aneke, Mandela Egbo, Joe Wollacott, Conor McGrandles and Terell Thomas make up the Addicks’ injury list at the moment, with the latter seeming closest to a first team return. Dean Holden has settled somewhat on a 4-3-3 formation in recent weeks, with the Addicks picking up back-to-back wins over Portsmouth and Lincoln City, with Scott Fraser thriving in an attacking midfield role.
A both teams to score punt has copped in 17 of 25 League One matches this season for Charlton, including their last five in a row, and they have kept just four clean sheets all season. The club announced the signings of Macauley Bonne and Todd Kane on Thursday, although there is a chance that neither player makes the starting XI.
Max Watters has recently arrived at Barnsley on loan from Cardiff City to bolster Michael Duff’s attacking contingent, with Luca Connell, Herbie Kane and Devante Cole being the main danger men that the Addicks will need to handle. Tom Edwards will miss out through injury.
Barnsley have scored in six of seven and could make hay against a leaky Charlton backline.
Cheltenham Town v Derby County
Derby County are a team that I am looking to get with when prices allow in the second half of the season, coming across as the most reliable side in the division outside of the third tier’s leading trio of Plymouth Argyle, Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich Town.
I was surprised to see the Rams at a backable price to win on their travels, with the Robins’ already poor attacking process set to take a hit from Dan N’Lundulu’s departure. Wade Elliott’s men may look to spoil the game, with a goalless draw appearing like their most likely route to a positive result.
Cheltenham have lost four of their last five in the third tier, against some relegation rivals, seeing their cushion over the bottom four shrink to six points. The Rams have not won in any of their last three league away trips, but the price is likely to shorten before the weekend due to the convincing nature of their results of late.
Paul Warne’s visitors are 11 unbeaten in the league, conceding just once in their last seven league outings, they will not have given up hope of climbing into the top two race yet.
Exeter City v Forest Green Rovers
Two sides promoted together from League Two last season, and two sides who perfectly show the effects of squad retention and squad deconstruction.
Exeter City, able to keep hold of their many homegrown first-team talents, are enjoying an excellent return to the third tier. The Grecians sit 11th ahead of this weekend’s matches and have flirted with the division’s play-off places across the campaign. The most notable loss for Exeter has perhaps been Matt Taylor, jumping up a level to become the manager of Rotherham United. Successor Gary Caldwell has benefitted however from retaining Taylor’s 3-4-1-2 and the regular personnel that formed it.
The consistent trio of Alex Hartridge, Cheick Diabaté and Pierce Sweeney, with Jamal Blackman in goal, provide a solid spine that allows wing-backs Jake Caprice, Jack Sparkes or Josh Key to impact the game in forward areas. Technical midfielder Archie Collins is key to maintaining tempo. With homegrown attacking midfielder Matt Jay now down in League Two with Colchester United, key creator Jevani Brown looks the prime candidate to fill the number 10 role in the team, playing behind a frontline that includes sharp striker Sam Nombe and dynamic Fulham loanee Jay Stansfield.
Unlike Exeter City, Forest Green Rovers were not able to retain their top talent during the summer of 2022, and it has led to a season spent mostly inside the third tier’s relegation zone. Manager Ian Burchnall may still divide opinion around whether he is the right successor to Rob Edwards, but the business provided to him from his January window suggest Dale Vince’s faith.
Striker Amadou Bakayoko is the latest arrival, Scottish goalkeeper Ross Doohan, Swansea City centre-back Brandon Cooper and left-wing-back Jamie Robson also added to League One’s bottom side. FGR are desperate to end a 4-game losing run, all four of those new arrivals likely to play key roles in the Green Devils’ 3-4-1-2 set-up. Midfielders Dylan McGeouch and Myles Peart-Harris, the latter on loan from Brentford, have already shown themselves to be impactful since arriving at the New Lawn.
The contrasting fortunes of these two teams best showed in their last league meeting, where Exeter City ran out 4-0 winners in Gloucestershire. Grecians’ home matches average 2.8 goals a game in total. Forest Green Rovers, who possess a defensive record only worsened by Burton Albion, have seen an average of 3.1 goals in their matches away from home. If Brandon Cooper and Ross Doohan are to make their debuts this weekend, they could well have a busy time as part of the Forest Green defence.
Rochdale v Colchester United
Rochdale’s hard-fought 2-1 victory at Bradford City on Tuesday night has taken the Dale out of League Two’s relegation zone. Jim Bentley’s side were once again thankful to record goalscorer Ian Henderson for a first win in eight matches, the soon to be 38-year-old scoring twice from close range to complete the precious comeback.
If Rochdale are to survive with their relatively weak squad, small margins could make all the difference. Aside from Henderson, the incredibly versatile Jimmy Keohane is an asset across the midfield and backline. James Ball and Liam Kelly add attacking quality to midfield, Danny Lloyd has been key to make an impact in wide areas since arriving as a free agent.
For all their struggles this season, Rochdale have failed to score in just two home games this season, both of those matches being against top end League Two opposition.
Colchester United are enjoying a brilliant, and badly needed, January window. One of the fourth tier’s form sides with three wins in their last four matches, Matt Bloomfield’s outfit have already been strengthened by further signings. Port Vale’s Connor Hall is a high quality centre-back who will provide stern competition to the current back three of Tom Dallison, Tommy Smith and Luke Chambers.
Bradford’s Fiacre Kelleher is another centre-back alternative brought in. Left-wing-back Connor Wood carries much more experience in the role than homegrown youngster Al-Amin Kazeem. Arthur Read adds to central midfield after joining from Stevenage. Matt Jay is a standout signing, the attacking midfielder showcasing previously at Exeter City that is one of the best in the league in a fluid role behind the frontline.
Add the arrivals to the likes of John Akinde, Freddie Sears, Noah Chilvers and Junior Tchamadeu, and Colchester United could enjoy a very productive second half of 2022-23.
A game that would have been marked as a close dogfight just a couple of weeks ago now looks like an opportunity for ColU to build on their form and climb further away from the bottom two. Matt Bloomfield’s switch to a 3-4-1-2 is proving a fruitful one. The Essex club should find the net at Spotland, and possibly take all three points, but opponents Rochdale do possess attacking talent of their own that can get goals in home matches. Both teams could end with at least one goal to their name this weekend.
AFC Wimbledon v Bradford City
Such is the state of League Two right now, bottom half AFC Wimbledon should not rule themselves out of the play-off race. A five point gap is currently all that separates fourth place Carlisle United from 15th place Tranmere Rovers, Wimbledon themselves just three points away from the beginning of the play-off places. Prior to a New Year’s Day defeat at Sutton United, Johnnie Jackson’s side had amassed a 10-game unbeaten run in the league.
A centre-back partnership of Ryley Towler and Paul Kalambayi had blossomed during this run, now broken apart by Towler being recalled to Bristol City and sold to Portsmouth. Against Crewe Alexandra last weekend, Jackson reverted to a back three that has been present throughout most of the season, which contained Kalambayi alongside the now fit Lee Brown and the heavily-experienced Alex Pearce, the homegrown pair of Jack Currie and Huseyin Biler playing at wing-back.
AFC Wimbledon have been without star attacker Ayoub Assal for their last two matches, and with rumours of a move up the pyramid once again circulating, we could well have already seen the 20-year-old’s last match for the Dons.
Fifth place Bradford City blew the chance to close the gap to the top three on Tuesday, losing 2-1 against relegation-threatened Rochdale after initially taking the lead. Home expectations at Valley Parade continue to be an apparent burden on the Bantams, but away from home is where Mark Hughes’ side have fared much better.
Only Leyton Orient, Salford City and Northampton Town have collected more points away from home, a record that could well have been even bettered had Bradford’s last three away games not been against teams in the current top 7. The switch to a 4-3-1-2 formation has seen physical striker Vadaine Oliver prove his worth ahead of top scorer Andy Cook.
West Ham United loanee Thierry Nevers will look to fill the void left by departing loanee Tyreik Wright. Harry Chapman faces stern competition in attacking midfield from the now fit Jamie Walker. Romoney Crichlow and Matthew Platt have formed the Bantam’s best centre-back partnership, with Brad Halliday and Matty Foulds deployed as attacking full-backs. Goalkeeper Harry Lewis has arguably been the best performer all season for Bradford City.
Bradford need a response to Tuesday’s disappointing collapse at Valley Parade, and up against an AFC Wimbledon who could soon have their key man permanently taken away from them, the big Bantams away crowd will expect. Such is the state of the fourth tier play-off battle, every win is precious and shifts the table significantly. Bradford will not want to be one of those seeing a group of teams move up above them.
Leyton Orient v Barrow
Leyton Orient have a good opportunity to carry on their push for promotion with another win this weekend against Barrow at home.
The O’s have been the best team in League Two this season and have won 17 out of their opening 25 games which shows they have a knack for grinding out wins. In addition, they have only lost three times which proves how tough they are to break down. The London club beat Doncaster Rovers 1-0 at Brisbane Road last time out with winger Theo Archibald scoring the winner in the second-half and boss Richie Wellens said afterwards that his players are ‘full of confidence’ and you can see why as they sit five points clear at the top.
On the selection front, defender Dan Happe could be out for the rest of this campaign but that isn’t too much of a blow with Adam Thompson and Jordan Brown proving to be useful alternatives in the heart of the back four. Leyton Orient will fancy their chances of picking up another three points this weekend and have been in good form this winter, losing just once in their last eight league outings. They have the best defensive record in the division and have let in just 13 goals so far this term and have proved they can score goals at the other end too with the host of attacking options they have like Archibald, Paul Smyth and Aaron Drinan.
Barrow’s results have started to slump over recent times and their 3-2 win over Mansfield Town away in their last clash was their first in six games. Attackers Billy Waters and Josh Gordon scored for them in that one, whilst their other one was an own goal by Oli Hawkins. Their manager Pete Wild said his team were too ‘slow’ and needed some ‘urgency’ in the first-half at Field Mill and they can’t afford to start like that against the league leaders again.
The Bluebirds are without key winger Josh Kay at the moment as he is suspended and have missed his presence going forward, with players such as Robbie Gotts and Richie Bennett struggling for goal involvements. Barrow were in and around the automatic promotion places at the start of December but have since slipped down to 6th position which is mainly due to the fact they have been conceding too many goals of late. They have leaked 11 in their last six and were thumped 5-0 away at 2nd place Stevenage on 2nd December. With that in mind, they could struggle against 1st position.
Salford City v Sutton United
Salford City will be in confident mood as they take on Sutton United at home this weekend.
The Ammies picked up an impressive 2-1 win over fellow promotion hopefuls Northampton Town in their last league outing courtesy of goals by midfielder Ethan Galbraith and attacker Conor McAleny. Speaking after that one, boss Neil Wood said he felt his side played ‘very well’ and if they can do the same against Sutton they should have too much quality for their opponents.
The North West club have received a big selection boost with striker Calum Hendry back from suspension and he boosts their forward options. He has fired five goals in all competitions so far in this campaign and provides something different to the likes of Matt Smith and Odin Bailey in attacking areas.
Salford are always under pressure to get promoted under the ownership of the Class of 92 and they have a good shot at it this year if they can keep picking up victories. Their recent home form has been decent and they have lost just once in their last six in all competitions at the Peninsula Stadium which suggests they are starting to find a bit of needed momentum on their own patch.
Sutton are no mugs but are comfortably sat in mid-table and won’t go up or down this term so will be there for the taking for clubs higher up the table if they show up against them. They drew 2-2 with Tranmere Rovers away last time out with midfielder Alistair Smith scoring a brace and their manager Matt Gray said he felt his players allowed Micky Mellon’s side to come ‘back into’ the match which is a worry.
Sutton have leaked 33 goals in 26 outings so far this season and that is the reason why they haven’t really been able to push into the top-half and they could struggle against the physicality and height of Salford’s Smith and the returning Hendry. In addition, their away form isn’t the best and they have won just once in their last seven on the road which shows they are a much better side at home than they are away. Lincoln City decided to recall striker Charley Kendall from the U’s last week and his exit leaves them slightly short of options up front after he made 11 appearances for the London club.
Harrogate Town v Stevenage
Harrogate Town are in for a very tough afternoon as they welcome a buoyant Stevenage side to Yorkshire.
The Sulphurites have endured a difficult season so far and have seen their results fall away over recent weeks. They were thumped 3-1 at home to Colchester United last time out in a damaging result, with striker Luke Armstrong scoring a consolation goal for them. Boss Simon Weaver wasn’t a happy man and said blamed his players for being ‘soft’ at the back so will be worried as they prepare to take on 2nd place in the table.
To make matters worse, Harrogate still have a whole host of key first-team players out injured right now such as midfielder Matty Daly, attacker Stephen Dooley and defender Kyle Ferguson and no longer have winger Josh Coley as he has been recalled by parent club Exeter City which isn’t ideal.
Their form has been poor and they are winless in their last four, losing three of them. Moreover, they have conceded nine in those games as well which shows how fragile they are at the back. They are only four points above the relegatiom zone and with another defeat most likely again on Saturday, they will be nervously looking over their shoulder towards the bottom two.
Stevenage’s confidence will be sky high after they dumped Premier League side Aston Villa out of the FA Cup last Sunday after a stunning 2-1 win away at Villa Park thanks to late goals by striker Jamie Reid and midfielder Dean Campbell. Manager Steve Evans, who has penned a new contract until the summer of 2025, hailed it as a ‘magical’ night for his team and will now want to see them back it up with three points at Harrogate.
Boro don’t have any fresh injury concerns to deal with which is a boost and have two new faces in their squad in the form of midfielder Jake Forster-Caskey and winger Daryl Horgan after they both arrived from Charlton Athletic and Wycombe Wanderers respectively to inject even more quality into the ranks. The Hertfordshire club haven’t lost in their last nine league outings and are chasing down Leyton Orient at the top, with the gap currently sitting at five points.
The secret behind their success this term has been their ability to keep opponents at bay and they have the second best defensive record in the division behind Orient having let in just 17 goals so most signs point towards another positive result up next.
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