Oldham Athletic v FC Halifax Town
It’s been a torrid campaign for Oldham Athletic but we are seeing a gradual turnaround.
The Latics have won three and drawn two of their last six matches, the defeat coming away at Notts County. Their performances have improved. They were the better side in games against Boreham Wood, Torquay United and York City and they thrashed Dorking Wanderers. They were also more than competitive in the 1-1 draw with Aldershot Town during midweek. Key to their improvement has been a more settled side, Unsworth making just nine changes to his starting XI over the last seven matches and going unchanged in midweek. Mike Fondop-Talum has four in his last three.
While we are seeing an upturn at Oldham Athletic, things are going disastrously for FC Halifax Town. The Shaymen have lost four of their last five in the league and even drew at step 3 Harrow Borough in the FA Trophy this week. They have failed to score in their last three league matches and fans were unimpressed with Chris Millington’s selection against Notts County, a game that saw them muster two shots from an extremely defensive base. They remain without key midfielders Luke Summerfield and Kian Spence and are starting to concede more shots – they averaged eight per game over a 15-match period but have conceded ten or more in four of their last five. With Oldham’s attack on song, they can’t afford to give too many away.
Solihull Moors v Gateshead
Two sides that are finding their feet again after tough spells and I’m expecting both to find the net at the weekend.
Solihull Moors have lost eight of their last ten matches but it doesn’t tell the full story of a side whose squad was decimated by injuries and who have been on an important recruitment drive in recent weeks, bringing in the experienced David Davis, Tom Whelan and Mark Beck to supplement an exciting, youthful group. They have scored in each of their last three matches, played out their game plan against Notts County to a tee only to succumb to two penalty decisions and can still call upon Andrew Dallas, who has reached ten goals and assists this season, including four in his last two matches. They do only have one available centre-back, however, meaning the defence will be somewhat makeshift. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home matches this season.
Gateshead are BTTS kings, having seen both sides score in 74% of their league matches, including three of their last four – and that was them failing to score against Wrexham. Consistent selection has been important for Mike Williamson in seeing his side’s performances improve, Gateshead running at +0.93xGD over their last five matches. They have lost Danny Elliott but have been able to welcome back Lewis Knight from injury and Quevin Castro should be available again after a knock. Defensively, they have lost Owen Bailey at the base of their midfield and James Montgomery in goal, so Solihull Moors should have chances here.
Yeovil Town v Maidstone United
I’m often weary when it comes to betting for or against sides on long winning/losing runs, but there is nothing about Maidstone United that suggests a change is in the offing.
They have lost each of their last nine league matches. Having put up something of a fight initially under George Elokobi with two goals scored in games against Notts County and Wrexham, they have succumbed badly against Aldershot Town and fellow bottom four outfit Torquay United, the latter a pitiful display in a 1-0 loss that could have been more. They have lost their most experienced centre-back, Joe Elull, leaving them with a youthful central defensive pairing, and limited depth to make key changes.
Yeovil Town also find themselves in the fight for survival but it’s a challenge they’ve tackled head on, swapping out Chris Hargreaves for Mark Cooper, and that decision is proving inspired. Cooper has lost one of his first ten league games in charge and picking up 12 points from his six at home. The three home draws came in Cooper’s first game in charge, a draw against Scunthorpe United when they had illness spread through the camp and only 13 senior players available and a 0-0 draw with Wealdstone when they had ten men. The victories came against fellow strugglers Gateshead, FC Halifax Town and Torquay United. I feel they will be too well organised, sharp and confident against a Maidstone United side in disarray.
AFC Fylde v Curzon Ashton
Fylde head into this game 6 games unbeaten and 2nd in the league, the chase is on for them now. King’s Lynn sit ahead them by 5 points however Fylde have a game in hand – every game is now a must win in order to keep the Linnets within arms reach. Nick Haughton has been on fantastic form so far this season with 14 goals so far, putting him one off the leagues top scorer Mark Beck who has now left the league. I’m sure this is something he will be chasing down in home fixtures like this.
A win here would also leave Fylde in a secure 2nd place position, with Darlington currently one point behind them with 3 extra games played. There is huge importance in keeping up the unbeaten streak they’re on in order to maintain their current position and keep King’s Lynn in a competitive title race.
Curzon Ashton won their last game to Farsley Celtic (who sit in the relegation places) although their form of recent times certainly hasn’t been the best. They sit 16th in the league with only 8 wins in 26 games. Undoubtedly, they’re strong enough to survive the drop although coming against teams like Fylde in such strong form should be a mismatch. An issue for Ashton has been acquiring a proven goalscorer – they’ll be hoping the arrivals of Darren Stephenson and Benni Smales-Braithwaite will compensate for this. Whilst both have competent experience in higher leagues, I doubt this will have such an impact in fixtures like this. Fylde need the win, they have the home advantage and the better form and team on paper. I’ll be shocked if they don’t come away with all three points here.
Ebbsfleet United v Havant & Waterlooville
Havant travel to Ebbsfleet this weekend for a highly anticipated top of the table clash. The Fleet currently lead the league by 6 points, the opposition 10 points behind them in third place. These two sides have been battling it out at the top since the start of the season now, both going unbeaten for a strong run of games. However, some fluctuating form has left Ebbsfleet slightly running away with things.
I believe Ebbsfleet will get the win here. Ebbsfleet’s home advantage will be huge in this fixture, they have the best home record in the league and have only conceded 15 goals at Stonebridge. More significantly, they’ve managed to score 40 goals in 15 home games – far more than any other side. Dominic Poleon has been outstanding this season, I’m sure Havant will look to track him down although the sheer quality of the Fleet attack should overcome how much he will be targeted. In regards to form, the home side go into this one on a 5 game winning streak. They couldn’t be in a much better position. Whilst it may be argued that you can not write off a side like Havant, I certainly do not fancy their chances here. They haven’t won a game in nearly a month and their last two fixtures showed no signs of positivity. Danny Wright and Joash Nembhard will also be missing this one due to both receiving red cards in their 2-0 loss to Taunton midweek.
Altrincham v Wrexham
A case of title challengers picking off opponents that have been weakened by the January window.
Wrexham haven’t been as stellar away from home as they have at home, but that’s because their home form has been perfect to date. The Welsh club have won eight of their 15 matches on the road and their record against sides outside of the top seven reads seven wins and four draws. They have won each of their last four away from home. Losing Jordan Tunnicliffe to injury against Sheffield United in the FA Cup won’t be a huge problem either – they’ve signed League One Charlton Athletic centre-back Eoghan O’Connell to replace him.
Altrincham’s chances of stopping them have lessened the longer January continued. Elliot Newby (Barrow), Ryan Colclough (Chesterfield), Connor Jennings (Hartlepool United), Chris Conn-Clarke (Waterford) and Toby Mullarkey (Rochdale) have all departed. Their first-choice front four and vice-captain, in other words. They have lost their last two without scoring a goal. Their replacements come in the form of six attackers who have all joined on loan but only one has played substantial game time, and that was in Ireland. Their record against sides in the top 12 reads one win, four draws and nine losses while their record against those in the top five reads one draw and five defeats.
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