Aldershot Town v Notts County

Aldershot Town go into this weekend eight points clear of 21^st place King’s Lynn Town, who have three games left to play. They are also seven goals better off. Safety is all but secured now.  

It’s not as if Aldershot have earned their survival by performing well in recent weeks. They have won two and drawn two of their last 14 matches, conceding 28 goals in that time. That run includes defeats against Grimsby Town, Wrexham, Stockport County, Torquay United, Dagenham and Redbridge and Solihull Moors, all of whom are in the top ten, just like Notts County. The Shots have lost all five home matches played against sides in the top six, they have conceded two or more in four of those matches and not picked up a single point against sides in the top five. They have failed to score in ten of 18 matches against top ten sides.

That bodes well for a Notts County side that have won their last four matches against bottom-half sides, scoring three or more in each game. The Magpies have won nine and drawn two of their last 11 matches against bottom half sides and scored two or more in each of those nine victories. Burchnall’s side have also not conceded more than one goal in their last nine against the same opposition. The Magpies come into this game having won five of their last eight matches and could welcome back star striker Kyle Wootton, who was rested in midweek against relegated Dover Athletic amid a back problem.  

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Barnet v Grimsby Town

 Once again, we find a Dean Brennan Barnet side coming up against a side in the play-off positions and fearing the worst. 

Brennan has been open about his concerns regarding the physical differences between his side and those towards the top of the division and that’s unlikely to relent here. His side have won one of 15 matches against sides in the top eight this season, drawing two. They have conceded two or more goals in 11 of those matches and scored one goal in seven home matches against the same opposition. They have also conceded six, two and seven in their last three matches against sides in the top eight. They have conceded two or more in each of their last six matches. Barnet have lost 11 of their last 19 matches, including seven of nine against top half sides.  

Grimsby Town, meanwhile, are in great form. They have won 11 of their last 16 matches to fire themselves back into promotion contention, including five of their last six. They have won five of their last eight away from home and have averaged 1.79xG in their last four away from home. Brennan’s concerns about physicality are likely to come to fruition here too – eight of Grimsby’s last 12 goals have come from their midfield, who tend to make a lot of runs off striker Ryan Taylor, an excellent foil. 

If that wasn’t enough reason to back them, they’ve also shown their mettle by coming from behind to beat Chesterfield, Stockport County and Torquay United in recent games.  

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Dover Athletic v Altrincham

Altrincham haven’t exactly been stellar away from home recently but they are playing against Dover Athletic on Saturday and that is enough reason to find cause to back them.  

For starters, while Dover Athletic are having some fun away from home, they have only scored five goals in their last 11 home matches, failing to score more than one goal in those games. They have conceded seven goals in their last two home matches and have kept one clean sheet in their last 17 at home. The Whites have conceded two or more goals in five of their last seven home matches.  

Altrincham do come into this game having won one of their last 11 matches away from home and having won just four away matches all season. However, two of those victories came against King’s Lynn Town and Weymouth, the other two sides occupying the bottom three positions in the league table while also being comfortably the better sides against Aldershot Town in a 2-2 draw. Despite scoring once in their last five away matches, they are averaging 1.2xG away from home meaning they are creating chances, and they come up against a Dover Athletic side whose opposition have created an average of 2.2xG in their last five home matches, in comparison to 0.8xG going the other way.   There is also the tactical perspective here. Dover have played with a diamond in recent matches while Altrincham play in a 4-2-3-1 where width and switches of play are key. It’s hard not to imagine Alty’s key creators, Ryan Colclough and Daniel Mooney, getting joy down the flanks

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Halifax Town v Yeovil Town

This is a selection heavily based on FC Halifax Town being so strong at home.  

Pete Wild’s side come into this game still fighting for a top three finish, currently sitting two, four and five points ahead of the sides below them in the league table. Key to that has been their form at The Shay where they have won 16 of their 20 matches. They have won three of their last four, only coming unstuck in a 0-0 draw against 4^th place Solihull Moors. Remove their opening day home defeat against Maidenhead United and their home record is perfect against sides 12^th or lower in the league table – they have scored two or more in all but one of those victories too. Their defensive record has been strong too, keeping clean sheets in 13 of their 20 home matches.  

Yeovil Town come into this game buoyant following a surprise 2-1 victory against league leaders Stockport County. It was their first victory since Charlie Lee took over as interim manager following the departure of Darren Sarll. However, there were circumstances that led to them holding onto that victory, namely a flare being thrown onto the pitch and Will Collar being sent off for the visitors immediately after the goal. 

The Glovers have conceded two goals in three of their five matches under Lee. They have won three matches against the top ten away from home but all three came before December – their record away from home since reads two wins, six draws and four defeats, losing two and drawing one of their three away matches against top half opposition. They have also scored more than one goal away from home against top ten opposition just twice. 

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King’s Lynn Town v Eastleigh

King’s Lynn Town’s relegation is all but assured but they haven’t given up fighting just yet as proven by their excellent 1-1 draw away at Dagenham and Redbridge last weekend. It’s for that reason that I’m backing them to get a result on Saturday.  

The Linnets have endured a very tough run of fixtures since the start of March, playing nine of their 13 matches against sides in the top 11. To their credit, they have lost just five of those matches, all against sides in the top half, avoiding defeat against Yeovil Town, Dover Athletic, Aldershot Town and Woking while beating Halifax Town and Bromley. They have also lost just three of their last eight home matches – against Torquay United, Stockport County and Grimsby Town. Despite difficulties this season, The Norfolk club have lost just two of their nine matches against sides in the bottom six – both prior to Widdrington taking charge. His side have also scored in eight of their last ten matches.  

Eastleigh have lost 14 of their 20 away matches this season and 14 of their last 20 in the league altogether, including seven of ten since Lee Bradbury took charge. They have lost away at Weymouth and Dover Athletic this season, the only two sides below King’s Lynn in the league table. The Spitfires have lost nine of their 12 away matches this year, failing to score in eight of those matches. They lost at home to Barnet last time out, conceding the winner while the visitors had ten men on the pitch.  

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Torquay United v Maidenhead United

 It’s been a tough week for Torquay United, starting their week with a frustrating 0-0 draw with Eastleigh before succumbing to a late penalty against Maidenhead United. Still, Gary Johnson’s side are playing well and have been for a while. They have won 12 of 22 matches since the start of December, losing only four. They had also won four of five prior to their draw on Monday, scoring 12 goals in their previous three home matches too. 

Since early December, the Gulls have won six and drawn five of their 12 home matches, only losing against Solihull Moors and three of those draws coming against fellow top half sides. Their record this season against bottom half sides reads seven wins, two draws and two defeats, both defeats coming in the first three matches of the season. They have since kept seven clean sheets in nine matches against bottom half sides. Their overall record in 2022 vs bottom half sides reads seven wins and three draws.  

It doesn’t bode well for a Maidenhead United side that have won three, drawn six and lost 11 matches away from home. Since beating FC Halifax Town on the opening day, their only victories away from home have come against King’s Lynn Town and Dover Athletic, both placed in the bottom three. They have also failed to score in 12 of their 20 away matches. Their only point away from home since the opening day against top ten opposition came against Wrexham when they played against ten men from the fourth minute.  

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Weymouth v Solihull Moors

Weymouth were finally put out of their misery in midweek, their relegation confirmed following a second half capitulation in a 6-1 loss against second place Wrexham.  

The relegation has been on the cards for months now, the appointment of David Oldfield and a number of new, albeit mostly youthful, signings unable to turn the ship around. Their form has only gotten worse, conceding three against Notts County last weekend and conceding two or more goals in eight of their ten matches since the start of March. Their record against top half sides doesn’t give them much confidence coming into Saturday either, conceding two or more in 14 of 21 matches and seven of ten home matches against such opposition.  

Weymouth’s only victory against a top half side this season came against Solihull Moors in September, a game during which The Moors recorded the single-highest xG total for a match in the National League. Since then, Solihull Moors have not lost a single game against a bottom half side, winning 14 and drawing seven. They have scored two or more goals in 14 of those 21 matches and in five of their nine away matches against sides 14^th or lower. Despite losing their long unbeaten run against Stockport County on Bank Holiday Monday, they responded positively with a 2-1 victory against Aldershot Town and have now scored two or more goals in eight of their last 11 matches, only failing to in their three matches against the top three.  

Solihull Moors need to win and Weymouth are now playing only for pride.  

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Wrexham v Southend United

We never truly know what goes on behind closed doors at half-time but whatever happened in the away dressing room at the Bob Lucas Stadium on Tuesday worked with Wrexham turning a one-goal deficit into a 6-1 victory.  

The game continued Wrexham’s remarkable run of form in front of goal since mid-February, scoring 44 goals in 14 games. Of those goals, 33 have come during nine home matches – an average of 3.67 goals per game in front of their own supporters. It’s not unwarranted either – Wrexham have averaged 2.4xG per game during their six home matches, including 2.99xG in their 1-1 draw with Solihull Moors, the only game in nine at home they haven’t scored two or more. It’s not one key player behind this goal glut either – Wrexham’s front four of James Jones (4), Jordan Davies (9), Ollie Palmer (11) and Paul Mullin (13) have scored 37 goals in their last 14 matches.  

It’s fair to say that Southend United are going to have their work cut out if they are going to deny Wrexham and their form on the road hasn’t been brilliant. They have won one, drawn two and lost three of their last six on the road and conceded two or more in four of their last five away from home. They have conceded, on average, 1.71xG away from home. The lack of consistency in defence may not help either – they have had to start with a change to their backline in ten of their last 12 matches. Southend have conceded two or more in six of seven away matches against the top eight.  

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