Altrincham v Wealdstone

I did well at predicting the outcome of Altrincham’s results over the Easter Weekend in the National League, predicting them to pick up a result against promotion chasing FC Halifax Town before being thumped by Wrexham. I’m making an outcome prediction on a third successive game and backing them to beat Wealdstone this weekend.  

Their thumping on Easter Monday was more to do with their issues away from home as well as facing one of the best and most ruthless sides in the division. At home, they are performing excellently, winning five and drawing one of their last six, conceding just one goal. Phil Parkinson’s side have won all six of their home matches against the sides below them in the league table, scoring two or more in five matches and keeping four clean sheets.  

Wealdstone have reasons to feel confident going into this game. They have won three and lost two of their last five away matches against sides in the bottom half and won both of their Easter fixtures without conceding a goal. However, Southend United have gone through a sticky patch amid injuries and Boreham Wood are winless in ten. They are also yet to win more than two games in succession this season and have lost 11 of their 19 away matches this season, conceding two or more in 12.  

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Chesterfield v Dover Athletic 

You get the impression that Paul Cook broke a mirror or failed to respond to a chain letter before taking the Chesterfield job.  

Since taking the reins at Chesterfield, he has overseen four wins, three draws and five losses while seeing his side drift away from the title race and they are now seven points adrift of the top three. However, his side lost against Altrincham despite conceding three shots while matching Grimsby Town and FC Halifax Town for xG only to concede six and score one.  

Despite their difficulties, the Spireites have won three of their last five at home and their record against the sides below them in the league table is strong – they have won ten and drawn five of 15 matches against sides 7^th or lower in the league table. 

Chesterfield have scored two or more goals in ten of those matches and they will fancy their chances of matching that when Dover Athletic come to town on Saturday – Dover have conceded two or more in 14 of their 19 away matches this season. However, the Whites have also scored in 13 away matches, including each of their last three. They have scored in five of their last seven league matches. I think Chesterfield will escape with the points on Saturday but they will likely have to score more than once to do so, hence the over 2.5 goals selection.  

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Dagenham and Redbridge v King’s Lynn Town 

Dagenham and Redbridge probably had the best Easter Weekend of any side in the National League, beating Barnet 7-3 and Aldershot Town 2-0 to extend their lead over Torquay United to five points and cut the gap on 7^th to two points.  

Those victories continued the Daggers’ excellent form of late, winning seven of their last ten league matches. Notably, they have only dropped points against sides in the top ten, meaning they have won their last seven matches against sides 11^th or lower in the table. Since the start of December, the Daggers have played 13 matches against sides currently 11^th or lower in the league table and won 11, losing one away at Altrincham and drawing with Woking. They have won 12 of 13 matches against sides 17^th or lower in the table, scoring two or more goals in ten of those matches.  

It spells trouble for a King’s Lynn Town side whose Easter Weekend saw them all but relegated from the National League. They are now eight points adrift of Aldershot Town with four games left to play and having played two more games than The Shots. Those two defeats came against Grimsby Town and Notts County and it continued a pretty wretched record against sides in the top ten, picking up five points from a possible 57, including two from 27 away from home, scoring in just three of those matches. All five of their losses since the start of March have come against sides in the top ten.

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Notts County v Weymouth

Notts County should, on paper, enjoy a very comfortable end to the league campaign.  

A change of shape and personnel, including a recall and subsequent goal for Callum Roberts, saw them record a 4-1 victory against King’s Lynn Town on Good Friday. That game was the first of seven to finish the season, all against sides 15^th or lower in the league table. The Magpies have won 12 of 18 matches against sides 12^th or lower in the table, winning nine by more than one goal and scoring two or more goals in 11. They have won all six home matches against sides in the bottom nine, scoring two or more goals in five of those matches. 

It spells trouble for Weymouth who could be relegated this weekend if they lose and Aldershot Town win. David Oldfield’s side picked up two decent points in goalless home draws against Yeovil Town and Grimsby Town but have now failed to score in their last five matches. The Terras have lost their last seven matches away from home, scoring two goals – both in the same fixture at Wealdstone. They have conceded two or more goals in six of those matches. Weymouth have lost 15 of 19 away matches, losing ten by more than one goal and failing to score in 11.   

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Solihull Moors v Aldershot Town

Solihull Moors’ long unbeaten run finally came to end on Easter Monday when they succumbed to a second 1-0 defeat of the season against league leaders Stockport County.  

Both Dave Challinor and Phil Parkinson (Wrexham) praised the attacking approach of Solihull Moors and their willingness to play on the front foot and get bodies forward should stand them in good stead when they host Aldershot Town this weekend. They have been excellent in front of goal in 2022, scoring two or more goals in each of their last seven matches not played against sides in the top three and in each of their last seven home matches. The Moors have also scored two or more goals in 13 of 15 home matches against sides 6^th or lower in the league table. Ardley should have a full complement of strikers to select from for this one.  

Victories against struggling Boreham Wood and managerless Yeovil Town have probably been enough to keep Aldershot Town in the National League next season, creating an eight-point gap ahead of King’s Lynn Town, who now have four games left to play. They were brought back down to Earth with a 2-0 defeat at home against Dagenham and Redbridge. Mark Molesley’s side have conceded two or more goals in eight of their last 12 matches and conceded 2 or more goals in their last five matches against sides in the top eight, as well 2.5xG in a 0-0 draw with Chesterfield before that.  

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Yeovil Town v Stockport County

Stockport County responded impressively to a rare setback on Good Friday with a 1-0 victory against Solihull Moors, ending their extended unbeaten run.  

Stockport County have now won 14 of their 19 away matches this season and have a perfect record against bottom half sides since Challinor took the reins – 16 matches, 16 wins. Challinor has overseen 21 wins from 25 matches, including ten wins from 12 matches away from home. They have scored two or more in nine of those away matches and won by two or more goals on eight occasions. The Hatters have scored two or more goals in 11 of 12 away matches against sides currently 11^th or lower in the table, the outlier being Southend United in the second game of the season. Stockport have kept eight clean sheets in their last ten matches.  

Yeovil Town come into this game under new management and with nothing to play for, pride aside. The Huish Park outfit have not won any of their four matches under the stewardship of Charlie Lee, conceding two goals in three of those matches and failing to score in their last two. Their home record against sides in the top ten has been poor, losing six of eight matches, failing to score in five and scoring just one goal in the other three matches. 

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