Liverpool v Watford

Premier League football returns following the international break as Watford travel to Anfield to face the seemingly invincible Liverpool side in the early kick off.

Klopp’s Liverpool are the form side of the league taking 28 points from their last 10 games, conceding just 4 goals in that period. They have also gone unbeaten at home all season in the league, scoring almost 3 goals a game while conceding 0.5 per game. Despite boasting quality all over the pitch, it has often been Mohammed Salah producing the goods with 30 combined goals and assist this season including a hat trick in the reverse fixture.

All this quality in wide areas should overwhelm Watford’s 4-3-3 system as shown in the 5-0 victory earlier this season. Liverpool had 9 corners in that game and average 7.45 corners per game this season while Watford concede over 6 per game on the road. The addition of Hassane Kamara has solidified Watford and provided them with a great outlet down the left. Kamara plays with freedom and should allow Liverpool to find space in behind him, where Salah operates and terrorised Danny Rose in the reverse fixture. Plenty of space in behind should lead to Liverpool corners consistently.

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Brighton v Norwich

Two sides who have lost 6 on the bounce face off as Brighton host Norwich, who appear destined to play in the Championship next season with just 4 wins all season. The Canaries haven’t picked up points since the 9^th February, falling 8 points adrift of 17^th having played 2 games more. Meanwhile Brighton keep spiralling down the table and are now 13^th as a result of poor attacking form, scoring just once in 6 games. They have scored just 26 goals in comparison to an xG of 38 goals, the biggest negative difference in the prem.

The Seagulls last victory came at Vicarage Road dominating the ball in their 3-5-2 system to expose weaknesses in a poor opponent. Brighton average 57% possession in the Prem this season (4^th highest) which opposes Norwich’s average of 44% suggesting fairly one way traffic in this game. Having shipped 63 goals and an XGa of 63 too, Norwich’s poor defensive record can be supported by the stats which will allow Brighton plenty of time on the ball with their midfield 5 having the ability to pick apart a weak back line.

Brighton also have had the better of this matchup recently, keeping clean sheets in their last 3 games against Norwich showing that just a goal should be enough for 3 points. In fact, Norwich’s last two trips to the Amex have resulted in 5-0 and 2-0 defeats.

The international break couldn’t have come at a better time for Brighton, and I expect them to be rejuvenated with a lack of international stars providing a much needed rest. Star right wing back Tariq Lamptey withdrew from the England youth squad with illness and should be back at full fitness today. There shouldn’t be many goals in this game, but I still expect Brighton to take 3 points on Saturday.

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Burnley v Man City

Leaders Man City make the short trip slightly North to Turf Moor to take on a Burnley outfit mired in a relegation battle in what should be a routine victory for Guardiola and co.

Although the score might not suggest dominance due to Burnley’s resilience under Dyche, I expect City to barely give Burnley a sniff on their own turf. City average 68.2% possession, far more than Liverpool with the second highest of 60.6%. Meanwhile Burnley average the least possession with 38.6%. The highest possession against the lowest should see City dominate the ball for the full 90, especially with the technical quality they possess.

City to win is at odds of 1.22 and barely provides any value, however I like the Burnley card market in this game. Today’s ref is Craig Pawson who averages 4.35 per game, one of the league’s highest averages. Burnley averages just shy of 2 yellows per game at home (1.85) and City average 2 per game against on the road.

However, it’s not just the stats which justify this selection. With Raheem Sterling seeing minutes for England in midweek, Jack Grealish should start alongside Foden and Mahrez which further backs this selection. Grealish averages 2.21 fouls drawn per game in the Prem, one of the highest numbers in the league.

City should dominate, and if this game remains close Burnley will have to resist a flurry of late attacks, taking a few cards due to their inferior fitness levels and quality. I like Burnley over 1.5 cards in this game.

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Chelsea v Brentford

A London derby of sorts on Saturday as Chelsea welcome Brentford to Stamford Bridge for the first time since 2017, looking to silence their off field troubles with another victory to add to their run of 6 on the bounce.

Stamford Bridge has been a fortress in a way this season, losing just once all season, to leaders City and since defeat they have been unbeaten in 17 home games. Thomas Tuchel is doing a stunning job, controlling plenty of big personalities in the squad while producing results and keeping a satisfied squad. Going forward, Lukaku scored last time out, and Havertz and Werner are expected to lineup together on Saturday, showing depth in quality going forward.

On the other hand, Brentford have found travelling difficult and have struggled to pick up points against big teams since their promotion to the Premier League. Brentford have won 3 of 15 on the road all season and haven’t kept a clean sheet in 12 away games since September. A tough start to 2022 saw Brentford slip close to a relegation battle but recent form has dragged them clear of that.

A key catalyst for Brentford’s success has been Danish midfielder Christian Eriksen who will be buzzing following goals in both international games this week just gone. However, it’s tough to see how Eriksen will have the fitness to last a full game off the back of two international performances. Without his quality, I struggle to see how Brentford break down this resilient Chelsea unit.

Chelsea have beaten Brentford twice this season and I expect them to make it a third on Saturday as they look to wrap up third before two potential cup runs to close this season. This is why the squad depth mentioned before is so important. Over 1.5 Goals boosts this bet from 1.3 to 1.57 and given the formidability of Chelsea’s attack in recent weeks, I have little doubt about this part landing.

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Leeds v Southampton

Leeds return to Elland Road following their astounding victory at Molineux. Trailing 2-0 after 50 mins and with 4 players off injured, Leeds produced a remarkable turnaround to win 3-2 partially helped by the sending off of Raul Jimenez. Meanwhile, Southampton did Leeds no favours in their relegation battle, losing 2-1 to Watford at home in what could have been a far more emphatic victory for the visitors, squandering plenty of chances.

It comes as little surprise to me that Leeds had to rely on their attack for a victory and not their defence which has shipped 17 in their last 6 games. In fact, they have conceded 67 goals this season, by far the worst in the league and haven’t kept a clean sheet at home since November.

Speaking of defensive struggles, Saints have conceded more than 2 per game away on average since November, including 12 in their last 4 games. The formidable duo of Broja and Adams were benched in the cup fixture against City but will look to return to the starting XI. Having scored in the reverse fixture, Broja will be excited to face off against the weak Leeds back line hoping for me.

An endless mountain of Leeds injuries should give Saints the advantage in this game and give them reason to go for victory on the road. BTTS has landed in 64% of Saints away games and 60% of Leeds home games and with two energetic sides facing off I’m expecting a high intensity from minute one. Leeds will be targeting this game to build more of a gap on the bottom 3 and I expect them to score, even if they lose today.

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Wolves v Aston Villa

More of a rivalry than a derby, Wolves Villa has emerged as a very important fixture recently for fans of both Midlands clubs set on bragging rights while both their local rivals reside in the league below.

A tough 2022 has seen hopes of Champions League football vanish for Wolves as Lage’s side fail to maintain their once exquisite defensive record. Following their drastic collapse in the second half against Leeds, Wolves fans will be keen to see a better showing on Saturday afternoon against a tougher opponent.

Villa manager Steven Gerrard strayed from his 4-3-1-2 against Arsenal, which resulted in a 1-0 loss and I expect him to return to the system which brought success this year. This will start with Danny Ings being recalled from the bench to lineup with Watkins and Coutinho, a decision Ings will be a fan of having scored in the reverse fixture. Villa will also be boosted by the return of Lucas Digne from injury, having played 90 minutes for his country the other day.

Speaking of returns, the suspension of Jimenez paves the way for Hwang Hee-Chan to return to the starting XI for the first time since Watford at home 4 weeks ago. The Korean should get his chance through the middle again, instead of operating off the left. Hwang has been most productive in this role and his pace should be a problem for Villa’s centre halves.

I like BTTS in this game of high stakes particular as the reverse fixture was 3-2 with a flurry of late goals and a wonderful comeback from Wolves. Villa will be out for revenge after Neves’ 95^th minute winner in what should be a tasty encounter.

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Man United v Leicester

Following defeat to Atletico Madrid, United fans will have had a sour taste in their mouth for two weeks and will be demanding a performance against Leicester City. Another year without a trophy highlights United’s inconsistencies and tension around the club is high, particularly as they search for a new permanent boss this summer.

Leicester have won 3 on the bounce against United with a 2-1 victory at Old Trafford last season and a 4-2 victory this season snapping United’s long unbeaten away record. In the 4-2 reverse fixture, Leicester racked up an xG of 4.03 from 22 shots, dominating the reds from start to finish.

United should win a game like this if they want to push for top 4 but Leicester have the history in their favour. It’s a tough game to predict the result and instead I will be turning to the card market. Ref Andre Marriner averages 3.47 yellows per game and United average over 2 yellows per game away from home.

The reason why I see so much value in the card market is the matchups, particularly in the midfield where Paul Pogba was one of three yellow cards for United in the reverse fixture. Pogba and McTominay lead fouls conceded per game for United, further highlighting the opportunity for cards in midfield alongside Fred who’s prone to a yellow card. On the other side of proceedings, James Maddison and Youri Tielemans are two Leicester stars who have the quality to break United down. They also average 1.65 + 1.27 fouls drawn per game, and with Fernandes frustration likely to lead to a card too, I like the look of United over 1.5 cards.

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