Manchester United v Manchester City
A hugely anticipated Manchester Derby arrives this Saturday lunchtime, as the Reds take on the Blues! United come into this game in excellent shape, they’re currently up at the top of the form table with eight wins on the bounce in all competitions. The goals have been flowing and they are currently averaging a whopping 2.63 goals per game in this time. Back to back wins in the domestic cup competitions have secured an EFL Cup Semi Final, as well as an FA Cup 4th round berth. Erik Ten Hag has his team on fire right now and the loss of Cristiano Ronaldo to Saudi club Al-Nassr seems to have had positive effects rather than negative. On the flip side, the Champions have had a few questionable results in recent times which may well make this an extremely tough game to predict! However, it gives me strong confidence in the selection of BTTS. City were swept aside midweek by a poor Southampton side in the EFL Cup, losing by two goals to nil. As well as dropping points at home to Everton in the league on New Years Eve and losing to Brentford four games back at the Etihad too. For me, this makes this matchup an even more intriguing affair as I currently see both sides on a more even level at this current moment in time!
Marcus Rashford has been the main man for the Red Devils in the past months. He’s oozing confidence right now and has been on the scoresheet in six successive fixtures. It’s seven goals within this time including goals in the Premier League, FA Cup and EFL Cup. I can see him causing the backline of the Citizens serious problems on Saturday and it would come as no surprise to me if he finds the back of the net once more. With Jadon Sancho being taken out of the limelight at the moment for issues not publicly known, the Brazilian international Antony has been given the nod generally out on the flank. He’s certainly someone who can pose a serious threat; he’s had a minimum of 1+ Shot on Target in his last 12 games for the Reds. Also, the tricky winger has netted in his last 2 games, the pick of which was the lovely curled effort from outside the box vs Charlton midweek. Not only this, back in October in the reverse fixture, he notched a wonderful goal at the Etihad when United were thumped 6-3. I’m expecting him to start here once again and just wanted to highlight his strong attacking output potential he possesses. From a defensive point of view, the home side have drastically improved too, they’ve racked up five clean sheets in their last six. Varying personnel have been given the nod in this time which makes this specific statistic quite impressive. Although, up against the league’s top scorers in Manchester City, this will no doubt be an extremely difficult task.
With the Blues hitting a so called ‘patchy’ spot of form, for the high standards Pep demands, this could be United’s time to pounce. No doubt this is why I strongly fancy the selection here. City still remain clear favourites for the title, now priced up at around the 4/7 mark with most bookmakers. After their disappointing midweek result, they’ll certainly want to hit back with a positive result at Old Trafford. Erling Haaland has to be the one given a shout out once again, the explosive Norwegian striker has been in scintillating form from the get go since joining in the summer. He already has a mind boggling 21 goals to his name in the Premier League and that’s without mentioning his successes in other competitions. This is averaging out at over 1.23 GpG which is simply astounding! Another incredible statistic is that Haaland has actually managed to score more than eight of the other teams in the Premier League thus far! With this in mind, it is no doubt going to be an extremely tough task for the home side to keep him out. The talent runs extremely deep in this Manchester City side and with a few key players given less minutes than usual in recent cup games, Pep will be keen to have his strongest XI out from the off. As previously mentioned, this apparent slight dip in form of the Blues has been highlighted purely due to their absolute dominance and expectancy to win every week. Regardless of this, the Citizens are consistently finding the back of the net which is all we are after in relation to the bet here! A little gem of a stat I found when looking at the numbers was that in the Premier League, they have now scored at least 1+ goal in 44 of their last 45 outings. If this doesn’t give us confidence then I do not know what will! This run goes all the way back to November of 2021 and United will have their work cut out defensively despite their recent strong run!
I believe the result could go either way in this derby match, therefore I’m keen to side with the both teams to score picks after delving deep into the statistics!
Everton v Southampton
Tensions are high at Everton football club. The team are languishing in 18th place in the league and were dumped out of the FA Cup in their last match. Much of the fan anger is directed at the ownership rather than the team. Goodison should be rocking on Saturday when Southampton come to town.
Everton have failed to score in just three of their last 13 home matches in the league. Two of these three games came against the ‘big-6’. The Toffees have scored in their last 11 home meetings against Southampton; dating back to 2012. When these sides met earlier in the season, the game finished 2-1. The Toffees were 3-1 victors the last time these sides played at Goodison Park.
Lampard’s side have lacked identity this season. Across their last five matches, they have lined up in a 5-3-2, 4-1-4-1 and a 4-3-3. Despite the media piling the pressure on the former Chelsea man, there is a general feeling amongst supporters that the players just aren’t good enough. Everton’s defence has been very shaky. They have an xGA of 31.47 in the league and only Fulham and Bournemouth have higher.
Southampton will take confidence from their shock 2-0 victory over Man City to reach the League Cup semi-final. The Saints have scored 15 league goals this season but they have an xG of 19.19. Six sides have a worse xG than Southampton this season. Saturday’s match is the perfect opportunity to climb off the bottom of the league as they take on a wilting Everton side.
It’s difficult to pick a winner in this one but expect both teams to get on the scoresheet.
Nottingham Forest v Leicester
Leicester have recovered from their woeful start to the season but have looked lacklustre since club football returned after the World Cup. Both of their wins in the six matches they have played have come against lower-league opposition. They have scored just once and conceded eight in the matches against Premier League teams.
Leicester’s matches on the road this season are averaging 4.22 goals per game; with their opponents averaging 2.33 of those goals. The Foxes have lost six of their nine away league matches this season. The three wins came consecutively from the end of October. However, the Foxes have since been plagued by injury. Maddison, Evans, Praet, Pereira, Justin and Soumare are all side-lined for Saturday’s clash.
Forest are unbeaten in their last seven matches at the City Ground. They have beaten Liverpool and Tottenham during that run. They have also earned a point against Chelsea. The fans will be in buoyant mood come Saturday after winning a penalty shootout against Wolves. Forest drew criticism for the volume of players they brought in last summer. It now seems as though Steve Cooper has managed to get a tune from his cacophony of new recruits. The fee for Gibbs-White was widely questioned. Now the attacker is finding his form and will be a real thorn in the side of this makeshift Leicester defence.
Forest haven’t lost at home since September and I fancy them to get a result here. Money back for the draw gives us an added bit of security..
Brentford v Bournemouth
Brentford have done extremely well since getting promoted to the Premier League. Their statistical approach to recruitment raised eyebrows in the early days. However, it has paid dividends as the Bees find themselves in the top half of the Premier League. Wissa stepped up to the plate in the absence of Ivan Toney against Liverpool. Toney isn’t guaranteed to miss this fixture but it seems unlikely he will start.
Bournemouth made a woeful start to the season under Scott Parker but Gary O’Neil has come in and steadied the ship. The cherries have a chance at survival this season but there is still a lot of work to be done. The Cherries rank as one of the worst-pressing sides in the league. They allow 17.81 passes from their opponents per defensive action. The league average is 13.72, not including the ‘big-six’. Brentford are accomplished in possession and will be able to create a number of chances if they are afforded too much space. Thomas Frank’s side have an xG of 26.76 the seventh-highest in the Premier League.
Brentford’s only league defeat on home turf came against Arsenal in September. They have won four of their nine home matches but have played Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham and Arsenal over that period. Bournemouth have just one away league win this season. Their opponents are averaging 2.50 goals per game even if you exclude the 9-0 drubbing at the hands of Liverpool. I expect Brentford to bounce back from their FA Cup exit and get the win on Saturday.
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