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Poland v Scotland
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Kick Off: Monday 18th November at 19:45
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Competition: Nations League
It’s all to play for in Warsaw on Monday, with the winner of Poland and Scotland having a chance of reaching the Nations League quarter-finals, while the loser will certainly be relegated.
Steve Clarke’s side come into this clash buoyed by their victory over Croatia at Hampden on Friday – a win secured by a late strike from John McGinn.
On the other hand, Poland are reeling after a late collapse saw them lose 5-1 to Portugal.
⭐ Poland v Scotland Best Bet
It’s a bit like Groundhog Day backing McTominay to have at least one shot on target for Scotland, but the Napoli midfielder keeps coming up with the goods and keeps being attractively priced.
The former Manchester United man has had at least one shot on target in 11 of his last 16 competitive international games, not to mention five of his last six.
With Scotland needing to attack in this game, look for him to be a major threat both from open play and set pieces.
👕 Poland v Scotland Predicted XI
🔍 Poland v Scotland Players To Watch
⚪ Krzysztof Piatek
With Robert Lewandowski missing for Poland, Piatek is set to lead the line for the home side and will be the main focal point of their attack.
The Basaksehir striker has had a shot on target in eight of his last 11 appearances for club and country after making a slow start to the season in this regard.
He had three shots against Portugal on Friday, and while none of these worked the keeper, he will surely not be as wasteful again.
🔵 John McGinn
With 4.35 fouls drawn per 90, John McGinn is comfortably Scotland’s go-to player when it comes to winning free kicks.
The Aston Villa man was surprisingly dropped from the starting XI on Friday against Croatia, but after coming on to score the deciding goal in that encounter will surely be recalled for this clash. He has won at least two fouls in seven of his last eight international starts, including exactly five in each of the last three games he has begun.
⚪ Jan Bednarek
Poland centre-back Jan Bednarek, meanwhile, is the hosts’ most prolific criminal, having given up 2.44 fouls per 90.
He goes head-to-head with Lyndon Dykes, who is another who will come back into the starting XI for Steve Clarke’s side on Monday, with the Birmingham man a tried-and-tested outlet in attack for winning fouls. He has picked up at least two in each of his three Nations League starts.
Indeed, in this edition of the competition, he finds himself sitting at 2.86 fouls drawn per 90 minutes, which is the second-highest figure in this Scotland side.
Expect a big physical battle.
📂 Poland v Scotland Cheat Sheet
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💻 Poland v Scotland Form and Tactics
Robert Lewandowski may be Poland’s headline act in terms of footballing superstars, yet he misses this fixture due to a lower back issue. Not that he had been particularly impressive in his previous Nations League outings, managing just two shots on target, including the penalty he scored in the Poles’ 3-2 Hampden win.
Without him, the 3-5-2 formation that head coach Michal Probierz prefers was maintained, with Krzysztof Piatek and Mateusz Bogusz leading the line.
They struggled to create chances when they last faced the Scots. Although they scored two penalties, they had just one other effort from inside the box. Of their 1.86xG, a total of 0.27xG came from open play.
In common with Scotland, Poland’s biggest threat comes from midfield. Sebastian Szymanski, Nicola Zalewski, and Piotr Zielinski have each scored two Nations League goals from the middle of the park, while Dominik Marczuk has the other. Indeed, all their scorers from open play have come from this area, so Scotland have been warned.
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But Poland’s defence has been more than fragile. It has conceded 14 goals – twice the number of Scotland and the worst record of any country in this edition of the Nations League.
Steve Clarke is known as a loyalist in terms of his approach to the game, so it came as a major surprise when he shook the Scotland team up on Friday against Croatia. The 4-2-3-1 formation of recent games was maintained, yet out went Lyndon Dykes and, most surprisingly, John McGinn, with Tommy Conway and Ben Doak starters.
Doak, in particular, transformed the way Scotland played. Previously, the attacking threat came down the left through Andy Robertson. Against Croatia, it all came from the right via the dribbling qualities of the Liverpool winger (on loan at Middlesborough), who tortured Josko Gvardiol.
After McGinn and Dykes arrived for the second half to add energy and tenacity against Croatia, it would be a surprise if they did not start. Scott McTominay, though, will remain a big threat, with his effort before Croatia were reduced to ten Scotland’s best moment when the game was 11 vs. 11. The Napoli man has a shot on target in 11 of his last 14 internationals.
Defensively, there are still misgivings about this side. Poland will have noted that Croatia’s press in the first half at Hampden saw Scotland cough up cheap chances, and it was these situations that brought the Croat’s biggest moments.
Clarke’s side might have kept successive clean sheets, but these have both been achieved in an uneasy manner that will have the home side salivating.
🏁 Poland v Scotland Ref Watch
- Referee: Christian Dingert (Germany)
- Dingert has officiated eight matches this season, producing 29 cards at a rate of 3.63 per game. He has yet to send anyone off.
- Has awarded four penalties across the fixtures he has overseen.
- Averages 24.4 fouls in his five matches across the Bundesliga and Bundesliga 2 this season.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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