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Scotland v Poland
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Kick Off: Thursday 4th September at 19:45
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Competition: Nations League
Scotland meet Poland in their first-ever Nations League Group A clash at Hampden Park.
The Scots are coming to terms with a disappointing display at Euro 2024 and will be aiming to make amends for that limp showing in front of their home supporters.
Like Scotland, Poland exited at the group staget in Germany, albeit in a far tougher group in which semi-finalists France and Netherlands emerged. They will fancy their chances of starting this campaign with a win in Glasgow, but will it pan out like that?
Scotland v Poland Best Bets
Both teams to score looks attractive given that Poland have both scored and conceded in seven of their last eight fixtures. While they have been strong offensively, they have given up 5.8 xG in their last three, while their away record is also poor.
For that reason, Scott McTominay to have 1+ shots on target is also a highly attractive price. He has been Scotland’s go-to offensive player for well over a year thanks to his late runs into the box and his threat should not be underestimated.
From a Poland perspective, Piotr Zielinski to have 1+ shots on target is also a big price given the menace he posed at Euro 2024, while Robert Lewandowski to score anytime at 3.0 with Paddy Power looks a huge price given his recent form and the fact he netted twice on his last visit to Hampden. Scotland’s defence, meanwhile, is notoriously their weak spot.
📂 Scotland v Poland Cheat Sheet
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📊 Scotland Form and Stats
Scotland arrive in this game in no kind of form whatsoever. Clarke finds himself under pressure after a run of only one win in 12 – with that coming in unconvincing circumstances away to Gibraltar in a Euro 2024 warm-up match.
Subsequently, Scotland threw away a 2-0 lead against Finland in a final friendly and then received widespread criticism for their unadventurous approach in Germany, where they managed only one point from three matches. The manner of the 1-0 loss to Hungary in their final clash was particularly limp.
The main threat in Euro 2024 came from the midfield. Scott McTominay, the scorer of one of the Scots’ two goals (the other was an own goal from Antonio Rudiger), mustered four shots while Callum McGregor, who has since retired from international duty, managed two.
Staying in midfield, John McGinn had a disappointing European Championship but still emerged having been fouled a massive nine times. This put him just outside the top 10 of all players at Euro 2024, despite playing only three games. He won 3.46 fouls per 90.
McTominay came next on six fouls drawn, followed by Jack Hendry and Ryan Christie on four each. Across their three fixtures, they managed only 17 total shots with just three of these finding the target, both competition lows. Meanwhile, such was their lack of offensive pressure, they picked up a meagre seven corners, the third-worst tally in the tournament.
Leading Scotland’s crime count, meanwhile, was Che Adams on six fouls conceded, while defenders Jack Hendry, Anthony Ralston and Grant Hanley each picked up four.
📊 Poland Form and Stats
Unlike Scotland, Poland can feel rather more bullish after their performance at Euro 2024. They were competitive in their three matches against Netherlands, Austria and France, and while they produced a lower xG than their opponents in each of these three encounters, they were still good enough to generate more than 1 xG per game.
Before the Euros, meanwhile, they had been undefeated in seven, successfully coming through the play-offs by hammering Estonia 5-1 at home and then edging Wales on penalties after a scoreless draw.
Despite their showing in Germany, Poland have not travelled particularly well in recent times. In European qualifying, they lost against Czechia, Moldova and Albania away from home, with their sole victory 2-0 v the Faroe Islands.
With Lewandowski carrying a thigh injury into the Euros, it was Piotr Zielinski who shouldered much of their offensive burden. The midfielder was the team leader in both shots (8) and shots on target (3).
Despite his lack of minutes, Robert Lewandowski still managed to commit a joint-team high five fouls along with Przemyslaw Frankowski, who was one of three Poles to play every minute, and Pawel Dawidowicz.
Defender Nicola Zalewski, meanwhile, won six fouls, with Jan Bednarek a couple back on six with Adam Buksa.
⚔️ Scotland v Poland Head-to-Head
Scotland and Poland are relatively familiar foes, having met four times across the last decade or so. Scotland won a friendly 1-0 in Warsaw in March 2014, while the last three games have been tied.
The latest meeting was a friendly back in 2022. Scotland led that game midway through the second half via a Kieran Tierney header, but a controversial late penalty salvaged a draw on that occasion for the visitors.
Krzysztof Piatek was the scorer of the levelling goal in that game, with key man Robert Lewandowski benched. The Barcelona striker had previously scored twice for the Poles in a Euro 2016 qualifier in Glasgow to eliminate the Scots from that competition, with a 2-2 draw leaving them with too much to do. In each of the last two encounters, the Poland equaliser has come in the 94th minute.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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