We know that if England are to have a good tournament then Harry Kane is going to be pivotal to the effort.

Rumours are circulating over the lack of readiness of Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham hasn’t played a minute with England since the March friendlies, in which Kane didn’t play, and the effectiveness of Phil Foden in an England shirt is also a question still on the table. Amidst all of this, Harry Kane is fit and ready, and, with the Bayern man on penalties as well, the England play should be directed towards the main man.

Kane has hit two or more shots on target in competitive internationals in six of his last nine starts, though in reality it is six in eight as England had already wrapped up qualification by the time of the Malta qualifier.

Serbia are at their weakest in defence, especially from wide areas, and there should be a way to get England’s main forward some joy in the opening match.

The Fulham midfielder is by far Serbia’s most consistent fouler. He is a very likely starter in the centre of midfield and his main responsibility is going to be to keep a handle on players such as Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice.

This is a tough task for any midfielder, Bellingham was fouled four times in the Belgium friendly, five times in the Brazil friendly, and four times against Italy in the qualifiers, his last three England starts, and Lukic could easily join the long list of players who find themselves having to bring down the Real Madrid star.

Declan Rice is also a powerful ball carrier and with him bursting from midfield, Lukic will have his hands full. The Serbian’s record for fouls in recent competitive internationals reads 2, 1, 1, 5, 4, 0, and 3 going back to the beginning of the World Cup group stages, which is an average of 2.45 per 90, when taking into account Lukic’s minutes played.

Of course, the match will not be all one way though, and Serbia have their own midfield maestro in Milinkovic-Savic.

The former Lazio man has been spending his season supplying Aleksandar Mitrovic with goals all season in the Saudi Pro League, so that relationship is exceptionally strong at the moment. England should be aware of this and keep a tight rein on Milinkovic-Savic at all times.

The Serbian captain has been fouled in each of his last seven competitive international appearances, averaging 1.55 fouls against per 90 going back to the start of the World Cup group stages.

As well as being a huge goal and shot threat, or perhaps because of the fact he is such a big threat, Harry Kane is also a bit of a marked man when it comes to fouls against him.

Serbia come into this tournament as the team with the 6th-highest foul rate per match in the tournament, and that will only increase with the amount of time that they will have out of possession here.

One thing that sticks in the mind when remembering England’s runs to semi-finals and finals of these major competitions in recent years have been when England are ahead in matches, to see Harry Kane drop deep, receive the ball, and retain it, and, often, buy a free-kick for his team.

This is a scenario that could easily occur here, and looking into the history books, Kane has been fouled in 11 of his last 12 competitive starts, with eight of those seeing him fouled twice or more. However, two of those matches were a 6-2 win over Iran, and a 7-0 win over North Macedonia, both of which had the competitive sting taken out of them early on.

One of Harry Kane’s direct opponents is likely to be Strahinja Pavlovic, who will likely play on the right of Serbia’s back three, so there is the chance of some related contingency in our favour here in this bet builder.

However, even without the scenario of Kane being fouled, Pavlovic has a tough job on his hands in this fixture. The Serbian wing backs are very attack-minded, and though undoubtedly, they will have been drilled to prepare defensively for this test, the instincts aren’t necessarily there. Pavlovic may have to cover Bukayo Saka or Phil Foden, whoever plays on the left, as well as the potential pace of Kyle Walker providing overlaps.

Pavolvic struggled against Sweden, despite the 3-0 victory, and committed four fouls on the night. He was also a prolific fouler in the World Cup, committing six fouls in the three group games.

With some doubts surrounding Aleksandar Mitrovic, it is a safer bet to assume that Dusan Vlahovic will start the game, either as a partner for Mitrovic, or starting as a lone front man.

Vlahovic’s data is, in some ways, better than Mitrovic’s in recent matches for Serbia. Though Mitrovic scored the higher number of goals and amassed the higher total xG in qualification for the tournament, it is actually Vlahovic who had the higher xG per 90 at 0.87.

Looking at only competitive internationals since the World Cup, Vlahovic actually has an exceptional 2.54 shots on target per 90 rate, which makes him look undervalued for just one shot on target in this match, in which England will still be coming to terms with their slightly makeshift defence.