Lazio have had a mixed start to the season but one constant has been their form in front of goal and chance creation. The fewest xG they’ve created in one game this season is 1.14, generating over 1.65 in every other game. Subsequently, Lazio have, as you might expect, scored at least once in every game. Most recently they met Dynamo Kyiv in the Europa League, triumphing 3-0 with all three goals scored inside the first 35 minutes. It’s also worth noting that last season they netted at least once in 31 of their 38 league games.

Torino have emerged as shock league-leaders although it shouldn’t be too controversial to suggest fortune may have been on their side. They sit 13th on expected points, having conceded a grand total of 8.26xG – the sixth highest in Serie A. Most recently they conceded two to Empoli as they got knocked out of the Coppa Italia, and two to Hellas Verona who played with 10 men for over 70 minutes. If that’s anything to go off, their defence may come under a lot of pressure against Lazio and it’s highly probable they’ll get breached at least once, as they were (twice) in both legs last season.

After the astonishing sacking of Daniele De Rossi two weeks ago, a lot of questions have been directed at the clubs hierarchy but they responded on the pitch, recording their first win of the season in a 3-0 thrashing of Udinese who were previously unbeaten and on a three-game win-streak.

They accumulated 2.57xG, almost five times that of their opponents, and were great value for the victory. Although the table isn’t too pretty a sight for fans of the Giallorossi, they actually sit 5th when looking at expected points which better reflects the flow of their games and the chances they’ve created compared to those they’ve conceded thus far.

They face Venezia who sit in the relegation zone having mustered just a single win and one draw in their first five games. The newly promoted outfit have lacked bite this year scoring just three goals and accumulating the third fewest expected goals in the division. They’ve particularly struggled against some of the league’s stronger sides, losing 3-1 to Lazio and recently 4-0 to Milan. Roma have a fairly comparable squad in terms of strength to those two so it’d be no surprise to see them blow Venezia away.

While Empoli fans will no doubt be delighted with their start to the season which sees them take up 5th position, their games have been far from action-packed with only Juventus’ matches seeing fewer goals scored. Four out of five have produced under 2.5 goals with their matches averaging just 1.4 per 90. It’s worth mentioning that this is no anomaly as demonstrated by last season where only Torino’s league games contained fewer goals.

A draw would more than suffice to please the supporters so they have no reason to take any risks and will surely prioritise defence over attack on this occasion.

Two of Fiorentina’s league games have produced under 2.5 goals but it’s important to look at the teams they’ve come up against. Three of their five opponents rank in the top four for match goals, notably including Atalanta and Parma who are both infamous for their care-free attacking philosophies. They should be in for a much less intense challenge against Empoli and we’re unlikely to see as many goals.

The head-to-head form reaffirms this with each of the last five clashes between these sides all resulting in under 2.5 goals. Hopefully we’ll be in for a repeat on Sunday.

Since Conte’s post-Verona outburst, Napoli have been on fire, winning four of their five games, the exception being a well-deserved draw against Juventus. In particular they’ve breezed past some of their weaker opponents, triumphing 3-0 over Bologna, 4-0 over Cagliari and most recently 5-0 against Palermo in the Coppa Italia.

It’s been quite the opposite story in the case of AC Monza who sit second to bottom in Serie A and are yet to record a win. They’ve scored just 4 goals which remarkably seems to flatter the Serie A strugglers who have accumulated no more than 2.14xG and just 1.7 open play xG. As you might imagine, they also sit rock bottom in terms of expected points by some stretch, 1.74 away from Genoa in 19th. It would take some effort from them to prevent Conte’s Napoli from retaining all three points at the Stadio San Paolo.