The Serie A title race is perfectly poised with three games to play. Antonio Conte's Napoli are three points ahead of Champions League finalists Inter Milan, while there's the mouth-watering prospect of a first ever play-off for the title if the teams end up on the same points because both head-to-head meetings this season ended in draws.

Serie A Run-In Analysis

In terms of the fixture difficulty remaining for these two sides, Napoli have the much kinder trio but that only ramps up the expectations further.

Napoli's remaining opponents have an average points per game of 0.98 this season, where Inter's are at 1.63.

Napoli host Genoa (13th), go to Parma (16th) and welcome Cagliari (14th) to Naples on final day.

Inter travel to Torino (11th), host Lazio (6th) and visit Como (10th) on final day.

According to the league table after 35 games, Inter's easiest opponent, Torino, is a tougher fixture than Napoli's toughest, Genoa.

Simone Inzaghi will be desperate to ensure that his squad do not suffer a hangover from their remarkable 7-6 aggregate win over Barcelona when they go to Turin this weekend. While he'll also have to deal with the Champions League final, taking place six days after Serie A's final day, living in his players' minds during the last three games.

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Napoli v Genoa

Napoli will host Genoa at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, where we think they’re likely to score first in the first half, with the bookies pricing this selection at 1.67. They’re undoubtedly the better of the two sides and tend to excel early on during their matches, having scored the first goal in 66% of league games, including 71% at home.

Gli Azzurri have won their last four and are unlikely to slip-up against a Genoa side with nothing to play for. Inter can level things up at the top with a victory in Torino earlier in the evening which'd certainly filter through to the Napoli team before they head out onto the pitch.

Torino v Inter Milan

With Inter set to take on Torino, backing them to win to nil looks like a smart option. The Nerazzurri have kept clean sheets in 14 of their 22 league wins this season. Additionally, Torino have been poor offensively at home this season, averaging just one per game compared to 1.22 when on the road. 

Another potentially overpriced selection would be a draw at 4.0. Inter have frequently reacted badly to the Champions League hangover this season, and given they fought with Barcelona for 120 minutes on Tuesday, this could be a factor. Additionally, only Juventus have drawn more games than Torino (14) in Serie A.

Serie A Winner Outright

In our Serie A 24/25 Outright Predictions from pre-season, we tipped Inter to win Serie A and Napoli to win it (without Inter) at 4.33, despite the latter’s dismal showing last season.

The bookies now favour Napoli, but it’s an open race, and the league leaders still don’t look fully convincing in their performances.

With Inter now able to focus solely on these three games, they stand a strong chance of overturning Napoli’s lead and a bet is easily justified at 5/1, although the outcome is out of their hands, with Napoli needing to drop at least three points for Inter to have any chance.

Parma might be the most likely of teams to take points away from Napoli, having already recorded big wins against Milan, Lazio, Bologna, and Juventus, as well as draws v Fiorentina (x2), Bologna, Juventus, Inter, and Lazio.

Napoli are rightfully clear favourites, but we do feel like the chance that they slip up amid Conte's antics is higher than the 16.7% chance Sky Bet are implying for Inter to chase them down.

Sky Bet are best price on the market for this one.

➡️ Inter Milan to Win Serie A on Sky Bet @ 6.0

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