With just one game to play in Serie A, the Scudetto race, which has been filled with twists and turns, is set to go down to the wire.

With both Napoli and Inter having endured turbulent campaigns at times, it’s the former who find themselves one point ahead, as we venture into the final matchday.

As has been widely reported in the build-up, were both sides to have finished on level terms, fans would have been treated to the mouth-watering prospect of a first-ever play-off for the title, because both head-to-head meetings this season ended in draws.

This would materialise if Napoli lose at home to Cagliari and Inter draw at Como.

Serie A Run-In Analysis

The last gameweek was an emotional rollercoaster for both sides, with the title-deciding matches kicking off at the same time, leaving the players reliant on news filtering in through the fans.

Napoli were unable to find a way past Parma, who secured a 0-0 draw on the day, grinding out a gritty stalemate in which chances were scarce for both the hosts and visitors.

They looked to be in trouble before Inter were pegged back for a second time by Lazio at the San Siro, as Yann Bisseck’s handball afforded the Champions League hopefuls a way back into the clash, as late on as the 90th minute. The final score was 2-2 with both Lazio's goals scored by substitute, and European football furniture, Pedro.

Due to the possibility of a play-off match being required, Serie A have announced that both Inter and Napoli’s matches will be played simultaneously on Friday, so that they could fit in such a game ahead of Inter’s Champions League Final on May 31st, if need be.

Como v Inter Milan

Backing Como v Inter to produce fewer than four goals at 1.45 looks like a smart option. This selection has come home in 76% of Como’s matches and 59% of Inter’s, implying some decent value. A recent decrease in the number of goals in Inter’s matches has seen 12 of their last 16 produce under 3.5 goals, as have 14 of Como’s previous 16.

In line with our expectations of a low-scoring affair, backing Como to blank in the first half at 1.6 also merits intrigue. Across their 18 matches on the road, Inter have conceded just three goals in total, meanwhile Como have failed to find the back of the net during the opening 45 minutes in over half of their games to date.

Napoli v Cagliari

Unfortunately for neutrals, we also think Napoli v Cagliari could be a low-scoring affair, and with under 3.5 goals priced at 1.57, we think this could be an opportunity. This line has landed in 84% of Napoli’s matches (most of any team in Serie A), and 78% of Cagliari’s games (4th-most in Serie A). In recent times, we’ve seen this come home in 11 of Napoli’s last 12, and 14 of Cagliari’s past 16.

Although this would be pushing this expectation to the extreme, backing this clash to end 0-0 offers the prospect for an exciting (not really) longshot. Last time out, Napoli were held to a goalless draw by Parma in a game in which neither side created more than 0.38 xG. With Cagliari having already managed to secure 0-0 draws against other top Italian sides including Atalanta and Roma, at 15.0, the returns definitely outweigh the risk on this occasion.

Serie A Winner Outright

In our Serie A 24/25 Outright Predictions from pre-season, we tipped Napoli to win Serie A (without Inter) at 4.33, despite the latter’s dismal showing last season. We’ve known for some time that this selection would be a winner, but for those who didn’t manage to get in early, where does the value lie now? The bookies heavily favour Napoli, with some pricing them as short as 1.1, whereas you can back Inter at 8.0.

Neither side has looked fully convincing in their performances to date, and their most recent clashes against Parma and Lazio, respectively, summed up the nature of this Scudetto race nicely.

Rather than being defined by brilliance, this title race has hinged on who slips up the least, presenting an unpredictable battle marked more by frequent missteps than consistent excellence.

Given the unpredictability we’ve encountered up to this point, we’d like to say that backing Inter could be a nice long-shot; however, in all honesty, we’d have expected the bookies to offer us slightly longer odds.

Napoli are definitely unbackable at 1.1, so in all likelihood we’ll be steering clear of this market. If there is any value to be found, it would be in siding with Inter, but even then, the edge isn’t convincing enough for us to recommend a confident play.

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