The draw here as a big runner, Wednesday haven't won a home match yet this season, so this bet would've landed in all of those matches. 

Wednesday are also struggling along with the same group of players that have failed to win all but one of their matches this season, and they must be getting leggy at this stage of the season, albeit they have had a couple of days longer to prepare for this one.

Derby actually have a winning record away from home this season, with four wins and two draws from their nine away games, and bearing this record in mind, when this is, by bookmaker odds as well as results and performance data, their easiest away game of the season, this price for double chance looks perfectly justified and backable.

Derby have beaten Sheffield United 3-1, Blackburn 2-1, Swansea 2-1 in recent away matches.

Whilst this is a fairly short price, it is justified when you take into account the evidence from both clubs this season.

Starting with Sheffield Wednesday, they have the joint-2nd most total corners in their matches in the whole league. They average 5.37 corners per match and concede over six corners as well. The figures switch around somewhat when playing at Hillsborough, with Wednesday averaging exactly six corners at home.

Derby are also a Championship team who see over 11 corners in their matches; there are only five in the whole league, and two of them meet here.

Derby themselves win over five corners on average this season, conceding just over six. The total average actually goes up in Derby away matches, which is mainly because Derby concede just under 7.5 corners per game away from Pride Park.

The big central defender has been on a sustained shooting run for a while now, and he is a backable price to continue his streak here. 

We have just discussed the probability of corners in this match, and clearly this is going to be the most likely route to a Sondre Langas shot, so we have that aspect going for us in this bet as well.

The Norwegian has also been aimed for from attacking free kicks. Derby are happy to throw the ball into the box from almost any angle, and also utilise long throws to try and get their big centre backs into use as attacking weapons.

Langas has had at least one shot in his last five matches in a row, including seven shots in that sample of matches. This spree has lifted Langas just over a shot per 90 for this season. He has had a shot in his last two away matches as well, and Derby are in for a greater number of shots in this match than usual due to the opposition. 

Team news suggests that Thompson will start again here despite Lewis Travis being close to full fitness, so this seems like a good deal to include in a bet builder.

Thompson's price is so generous, potentially because of the lack of evidence he has playing in the Championship for Derby. His average of 1.23 fouls per 90 is based upon five appearances, but what I like about this bet is that he has fouled in the last two Derby matches, and then also the fact that central midfielders in John Eustace systems often have to have that hard work, industry, and combative nature about them.

This was certainly the case with Sondre Tronstad and Lewis Travis in Eustace's Blackburn midfield, and Ebou Adams, who Thompson has replaced in midfield of late, carries an average of over two fouls per match. For Thompson to have such a big price for one, bank of evidence or not, seems far too big.

Any super sub angle could be interesting as well, with the potential of Lewis Travis coming on in place of Thompson in the second half.