Exeter will likely be the team dictating how this game plays out, and for the most part this season their games have been low margin. This bet has won in six of their nine league games so far, and the three games that did not were not far away, all totalling three goals.

While the last couple of The Shrews games have been high scoring, we don’t think this will be a sustainable trend and expect a tight game here. Under 2.5 has won in five of their 11 league games, but Salop themselves have only scored two goals or more on three occasions this season, and Exeter have a mean defence.

This has happened in nine of Shrewsbury’s 11 league games so far this season and seems a safe bet with referee David Rock averaging 5.75 yellow cards per game in League One this campaign. Shrewsbury have been awarded more yellow cards (32) than any other side.

A similar hit rate for the away side in terms of cards, who have picked up two or more in seven of their nine League One outings this season. The Grecians also commit 15 fouls per game, which is the highest amount of any League One side.

Exeter continue to find a way this season, with this bet winning in their last four league games. They keep games tight and back themselves to find a goal, having only failed to score in the league once. Six of their 10 goals have come from set pieces.

They have the second best defensive record in the league in terms of goals conceded, and a goalkeeper in Joe Whitworth who has prevented the most goals (6.4) in the league. Exeter have won or drawn six of their nine league games, while Shrewsbury’s opponents this season have drawn or won 9 out of 11.

The combative midfielder joined The Shrews from recently relegated Port Vale on deadline day and has started every game since. In recent weeks, he was formed a double pivot partnership with Jordan Rossiter at the heart of midfield.

Since joining, Ojo has picked up three yellow cards in seven league games. With the home side now playing with wing backs and a front three, the central midfielders have a lot of work to do to hold the centre of the pitch and also cover over in the space the wing backs have vacated. He has been yellow carded in both game since this system was implemented.

Marquis has been a regular appearance maker at League One level for what seems like forever. The bustling target man is known for trying to upset defenders. He picked up seven yellow cards last season when playing for Bristol Rovers, at a rate of 0.46 per 90. This season he has three from eight appearances, and at a fast rate of 0.64 per 90.

Goals wise, Marquis is not prolific, but does manage goals at a respectable rate. He opened his account for the season away at Crawley on Saturday, notching two goals, and will therefore be in confident mood. He is also the Shrews’ penalty taker.

As touched on in the Level 1 bet builder, the first thing that makes this attractive is referee David Rock, who has handed out 5.75 yellow cards per game in League One this season.

4 or more cards would have won in eight of 11 Shrewsbury league games, including all of the last six, and six of the nine Exeter league games. Shrewsbury have been awarded the most yellow cards in League One this season, and Exeter have committed the most fouls per game.

Our idea of the likely winner of this game is Exeter, but I also think the draw is a big player, and that’s why it pays to back Exeter (+1) handicap.

We are expecting a tight game, with neither side looking capable of winning decisively this season. Exeter’s strong defensive stats tip this encounter in their favour. Having won or drawn 67% of their league games, and Shrewsbury having drawn or lost 81% of their league games, it’s likely this bet will be covered, especially with Exeter heading into the game in strong form.