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Slovenia v Serbia

The former Yugoslavian republics meet in a massive game for both nations in terms of their prospects of qualification from Group C.

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The site will feature Euro 2024 acca tips and both teams to score predictions, which we will bring you regularly over the course of the tournament, as well as daily shot on target predictions and foul betting tips to help you craft your bet builders this summer, using the best bet builder bookmakers.

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Slovenia can practically assure their qualification with a win here. Their late equaliser against Denmark has put them in a decent position from that perspective and with a final group game against England, who could already be qualified, potentially as group winners, yet to come, the sequence of matches could yet really help Slovenia out in terms of progression in the tournament.

Serbia gave a good account of themselves in their opener against England but were unable to exert enough pressure on the England goal to really deserve a draw out of the game. The team looked prepared and physically ready for the tournament though, and with the likes of Dusan Vlahovic and Aleksandar Mitrovic getting more time on the pitch to work on their partnership, they should be ready for this clash.

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Slovenia v Serbia Best Bets

➡️ Over 3.5 cards @ 1.80 on Paddy Power
➡️ Adam Cerin & Petar Stojanovic to commit 1+ fouls each @ 1.57 on Paddy Power

This is a difficult match to call in terms of results and goals. The recent Nations League head-to-head would suggest that Serbia might be the better team, and also that goals are on the table, but this is tournament play, and both sides will surely be more cautious in this scenario.

There is a lot on the line, especially for Serbia, who could say goodbye to their chances of qualification with a defeat here.

Given the fact that there will be tension and stress, and also the fact that this is a former Yugoslavian Republic derby, there could be an angle into backing cards here. A look into the previous history of this fixture shows that cards are often a factor.

The first Nations League meeting, the 4-1 win for Serbia, only saw two cards produced, however, the last meeting had seven yellow cards produced. The 2010 and 2011 meetings were also card-heavy, with nine and four given in those matches. That makes an average of 5.5 yellows in this fixture’s history, the tournament is currently running at a 3.2 cards per game average, and the official in charge of this match, Istvan Kovacs, who has a high yellow card rate in his career of 5.45 per match.

All of the evidence combined makes a bet of over 3.5 cards an appealing one in this match, which can be backed at 1.80.

As an addition to the disciplinary action, there is also a recommended in-match multiple for this match. Adam Cerin (1.10) and Petar Stojanovic (1.40) to foul at least once. Combined together this comes to 1.58 and looks great value. The bonus is that all legs will also be covered by the Paddy Power Super Sub promotion, where if a player is substituted then the sub takes their place in the bet.

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📂 Slovenia v Serbia Cheat Sheet

There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets and we encourage you to find your own formula to pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.

You can find Slovenia v Serbia match stats on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.

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⚔️ Slovenia v Serbia Head-to-Head

In years past, the 22 players on the pitch at kick-off would’ve been in the same squad together, but since the split of Yugoslavia, and more specifically, the further split of Serbia & Montenegro, the two countries have met each other four times in international football.

The overall record is one win each and two draws, but the most interesting matches are clearly the two played in the Nations League in 2022. As many as seven players on each side from the last meeting could be playing in the match on Thursday, so there is relevance to the matches.

The last meeting was played in Ljubljana and finished 2-2 after Slovenia mounted a second half comeback from 2-0 down at half time. Aleksandar Mitrovic scored to make it 2-0 to Serbia just after the half hour, but Adam Cerin and Benjamin Sesko brought Slovenia a point in the Nations League.

Previously in the Nations League group, Slovenia had been soundly beaten in Belgrade 4-1. Mitrovic opened the scoring, and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Luka Jovic, and Nemanja Radonjic also bagged for Serbia that day.

Serbia probably have the upper hand in terms of recent meetings coming out of that campaign, and many of the players will feel that they have that level of superiority over Slovenia.

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📊 Slovenia Form and Stats

Slovenia had a morale-boosting European Championship qualifying campaign. Indeed, Slovenia have only lost to Denmark in their last 12 matches, with wins against USA and Portugal in that time as well.

However, it is not all positive as there is also a 2-2 draw in Malta, and unconvincing results against Armenia and Bulgaria directly before the tournament.

Overall, Euro qualification saw Slovenia have a +1.1 goal difference per match over their opponents, but only a +0.5 expected goal difference per match, so their performances perhaps weren’t as impressive as the scores may suggest.

Their opening match against Denmark was an improvement on their performances in qualification against the same opponent. The match had looked fairly similar, with the Danes dominating chances and territory, until the middle of the second half. Slovenia ended up with 1.1 xG, and actually edged the open play xG numbers. 11 shots were taken, with two on target, although the goal was heavily deflected on its way in.

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📊 Serbia Form and Stats

Serbia were drawn in a group that didn’t contain any nation ranked inside the top 20 in the world, and yet they won only half of their matches and finished 2nd to Hungary, some four points behind having been beaten home and away by the Magyars.

The performance data did show that Serbia deserved to qualify though. They managed a +0.8 xG per match differential over the opponent in qualification on average, which places them in the lower half of mid table for all of the 23 qualifiers at this tournament, and better than Slovenia’s +0.5 xG differential.

Friendly matches since qualification have been up and down, with two losses and two victories. Thankfully for them, their last match before the tournament was by far the most convincing, with a 3-0 victory in Sweden.

The opening match saw Serbia only create 0.18 xG against England. Indeed, the total xG created in the match of 0.7 xG was the lowest of the tournament so far, and lower than any Premier League game from the 2023/24 season.

Goals had been a regular feature in Serbia matches of late though, with seven of their last ten going over 2.5. Five of their last ten have seen both teams score as well, so perhaps it was an England issue that they faced, rather than a Serbian one.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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18+ please gamble responsibly.

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