Brighton are by far the better team on paper and should have the quality to see off a poor Southampton side on Monday. The Seagulls are an attractive price to win this game at odds of 2.1 but I’m taking double chance to kick start our bet builder.

Under De Zerbi, Brighton have had an up and down record on the road, with a point at Anfield, a league cup win at Arsenal but also defeats at Charlton and Brentford. They haven’t strayed away from their style of play with the change in management with over 50% possession at the Etihad, 68% at Wolves and 70% at Brentford in their past 3 league away games. Their underlying numbers show their dominance on the road and it’s only a matter of time before they start converting more chances.

For Saints, they have won just one game at home all season. Where Brighton have failed to keep the goals out, Southampton have failed to score, scoring just 8 which is the second lowest tally in the league. Romain Perraud and James Ward-Prowse are tied for second highest scorer as a left back and ball playing midfielder.

Overall, Southampton have struggled to score more than one in most recent home games. Given Brighton’s possession stats, I can only really see Southampton scoring from a goal of exceptional quality which you wouldn’t put past Ward Prowse. However, Welbeck and Trossard were firing before the world cup and should have far too much quality to be kept out at the other end.

There were a few eyebrows raised when Ward Prowse was omitted from the England World Cup squad by Gareth Southgate, leaving JWP with a point to prove on the field for Southampton. One of the few positives for the Saints this season, Southampton’s skipper has been an ever present, racking up close to 1800 minutes in all competitions this season with 5 goal contributions.

For this leg of the bet, I’m looking at James Ward-Prowse’s passing stats. Per my cheat sheet, Ward Prowse attempts 58.8 passes per 90, the highest of any Saints player and well over the 50 mark required to land this leg. All the numbers point towards Brighton having the majority of the possession, however without star midfielder Alexis MacAllister to press the Saints’ midfield pairing, the likes of Ward-Prowse will have far more time on the ball. Priced at 1.73 and having attempted 50 passes at Anfield with lower possession, I find this exceptional value for us.

After a disappointing world cup campaign where he barely featured for Belgium, Leandro Trossard will also be looking to make a point on his return to English domestic football. Averaging 0.76 goal contributions per 90, he was well deserving of his call up to the Belgium squad, but only featured for 116 minutes, playing more than an hour once. Prior to the tournament Trossard had been excelling as a number 9 in de Zerbi’s system, a position he will be lining up in today.

Per my cheat sheet, Trossard averages more than 1 SOT per game with 1.15 shots on target per 90. Furthermore, Southampton have 4 players who average over a foul per game. With Trossard on free kicks and penalties, this should present further opportunity for a shot on goal. Southampton allow an astounding 12.56 shots against in the past calendar year with 4.27 on target.

It feels harsh to call him a kamikaze centre back but for all his ability, Saints centred back Mohammad Salisu is prone to the odd mistake and rash challenge. With 15 cards to his name in the Premier League, Salisu is a well-known name to Premier League referees. The Ghanian has been an exceptional pickup for the Saints, also becoming an ever present in their back line under Hassenhuttl and now Nathan Jones.

Salisu is the second highest foul committer per 90 for Southampton and against the likes of March and Trossard drawing over a foul a game, he should be in the thick of the action. Frustration at Brighton’s patient possession game could lead to Saints deploying a more aggressive style of defending which I think could lead to a Salisu card.