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Southampton v Portsmouth 5/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Southampton v Portsmouth 5/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

EFL
Starting: Sun 14th Sep, 12:00
Friday 12 September, 20253 min read
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South Coast rivalries resume as Southampton and Portsmouth prepare to play each other for the first time since 2019, and within the same league since 2012.

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Southampton v Portsmouth Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Southampton v Portsmouth
  • Championship
  • 12:00
4 Selections @ 5.73

Both Teams to Score

Southampton have been surprisingly leaky in their return to the Championship. They have conceded in all of their league matches so far, but also scored in them all as well, so, obviously, this bet has collected in all four Championship matches.

Portsmouth have also scored in all four matches, but only once on each occasion. They have also averaged over 1xG in those matches, so in theory, they should've scored more than they have to this point.

Over 9.5 Corners

Both teams are seeing a lot of corners in their matches this season.

The average in Southampton matches sits at exactly 9.5, but is dominated by Saints who take up 6.0 of that average, their two home matches have both been 7-3 in terms of corners.

Pompey's matches are averaging 9.6 corners, with Portsmouth averaging 5.6 themselves.

Josh Murphy to have 2+ Shots

Whilst I will be expecting to see Portsmouth play on the break in the most part, I am still expecting them to trouble the Saints goal.

Josh Murphy is the key man in the Pompey attack when it comes to looking for a player to take shots. He hit four shots out of Portsmouth's 10 total against Preston, as well as firing one against West Brom and two against Norwich.

Murphy averages 3.1 shots per 90 over Portsmouth's last 30 matches.

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Nathan Wood to Commit 1+ Fouls

Wood is priced as the least likely player to foul by the prices at certain bookmakers, and I understand the reasoning for this, but I think in this case it's wrong.

Wood plays at the centre of the Southampton back three, statistically speaking, this is the least likely position in regular formations to conduct fouls from.

However, the Southampton central defenders don't seem to conform to this data stereotype. Wood has actually committed at least one foul in his last five starts and averages 1.23 fouls per 90 across Southampton's last 30 matches, so he is overpriced here for an infringement.

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Southampton v Portsmouth Best Longshot Bets
  • Southampton v Portsmouth
  • Championship
  • 12:00
3 Selections @ 10.37

Over 6.5 Southampton Corners

We mentioned the high corner count in the first bet builder, but this line has been beaten by Southampton in both of their home matches so far this season.

Also, circumstantially, I can see a few scenarios in which Southampton will end up putting pressure on Portsmouth and winning corners. If they are level or behind in the match, especially with it being a derby, the crowd will certainly be vociferous in their desire to get their team forwards.

Also, a 3-4-3 formation is usually quite a good one for corner production. With wide forwards and wingbacks to help create wide overloads, and then knowing that you have three central defenders on the pitch to attack the corner also helps with the tactic of trying to win them.

Shea Charles to Commit 2+ Fouls

The Southampton midfielder is their anchor this season and is likely to be playing a lot of minutes in that role.

Interestingly, the signing of Finn Azaz saw Southampton play a midfield two of Azaz and Charles, which meant that Charles had a very different role than when playing with Flynn Downes, who also likes to play deeper.

I think that we are getting a bit of value about Charles in the fouls markets because I suspect that if Azaz is continuing to play there, Charles will have to do more of the physical, heavy lifting.

He committed four fouls in that last match against Watford, taking him to a 2.32 fouls committed average so far this season.

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Zak Swanson to have 1+ Shots

This price looks too big to me. Swanson is quoted as the second least likely player to have a shot, but that does not tally with what he has done since the start of the season.

Swanson has now gone back-to-back matches where he has fired off at least one shot. Indeed, those are his only starts so far this season, and he has got three shots off in those matches.

He seems to be the full back with the most freedom to get forward, with Connor Ogilvie an accomplished central defender who can make a solid three when Swanson attacks.

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📂 Southampton v Portsmouth Cheat Sheet

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📈 Southampton v Portsmouth Form & Tactics

Will Still has an abundance of talent to work with, and now that the transfer window is closed, he knows exactly what the job is.

Still has decided to go with the 3-4-3 formation. Cameron Archer seems to currently have the trust to play the centre forward role, but there is serious competition for that position. It is also interesting that Jay Robinson is seemingly the first choice on the left, ahead of some players with big reputations.

Expect Southampton to dominate possession in most matches. They have three central defenders who are confident and competent on the ball, and with the addition of Finn Azaz, trusted alongside Shea Charles in central midfield last time out, there should be the creativity to help create the chances for the forwards. But, can this be balanced out defensively?

Saints have only managed five points from four matches, so they need to pick up some form and a win in the derby will be the perfect start to this next stage of the season.

John Mousinho is one of the longest serving managers in the Championship, despite him only being in charge for less than three years, but he knows this set of players really well and is able to be flexible in the way that he uses the talent at his disposal.

He tends to use a 4-2-3-1 formation in a quite traditional way. A solid back four with a defence first mentality in the full backs, but with the ability to play forwards quickly. There is plenty of skill in midfield these days with Andre Dozzell showing great signs of maturity and development, alongside John Swift.

There is a sprinkling of match changing ability in the three behind the forward, keeping hold of Josh Murphy was huge for Pompey, and Adrian Segecic is looking like an awesome piece of recruitment.

Pompey have two wins, both 1-0, as well as a draw and a defeat in the league so far.


🏁 Ref Watch

Matt Donohue

Fouls pg

Yellows pg

Reds pg

Pens pg

23.53

3.91

0.19

0.14

Per game stats from Donohue's 163 career Championship games.


📊 Southampton v Portsmouth Key Stats

  • Southampton have the winning record in the South Coast derby, 35 wins to Portsmouth’s 21.

  • Southampton average 58.9% possession in their Championship matches so far, behind only Ipswich for the highest percentage possession in the competition.

  • The big hurt for Southampton so far has been the number of big chances missed - their total of eight is second only to Wrexham as the highest number.

  • Portsmouth sit 19th in the league for average possession, but 9th for accurate long passes - an indication to their style of play.

  • Portsmouth have the third highest number of yellow cards so far - 11 received.

  • Portsmouth’s xG is 5.5 but they have scored only four, whereas they have only conceded three goals from an xG against of 4.9.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, Accumulator Tips, and Gem Bets, as well as EFL Predictions for this weekend, on Andy's Bet Club.

We've also got plenty of other content for Sunday's fixtures, including Kilmarnock v Celtic Betting Tips and Man City v Man United Bet Builder Predictions - there are Man City v Man United Anytime Goalscroer Tips, too. We also have a Sunday Football Acca, as well as Premier League Player Prop Tips.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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