Stjørdals-Blink v Raufoss

These are very difficult times for Stjørdals-Blink. The semi-professional club based near Trondheim have been suffering with some great financial difficulties recently and at a recent meeting most of the players agreed to reduce to a minimum salary wage for the rest of the season to help keep the club afloat. Two regular starting defenders Havard Lorentsen and Mathusan Sandrakumar did not agree to such terms and have been released from the club. The squad needs to stick together but it is not going to be easy under such circumstances. Performances and results on the field aren’t helping either. Stjørdals-Blink are bottom of the OBOS Ligaen on just 6 points and have won a single solitary match all season. Blinks have the 4th worst xG out of any team per 90 mins (1.16) and also the 4th worst xGA per match (1.70). There are obvious problems at both ends of the field, in addition to their off the field woes. They lost 2-4 away to Stabaek on Thursday night but for most of the contest they were losing heavily. This feels like a really good time to bet against them.

Raufoss are down in 9th place but are probably the most underrated side in the OBOS Ligaen. They head into this match on the back of four consecutive wins and have been absolutely flying of late. They have a game in hand on most other teams and if they won that then they’d be inside the playoff spots. Raufoss have the 4th best average xG per 90 mins of any team (1.78) which is quite an impressive statistic when you consider there are a lot of offensive juggernauts in this division. That metric improves even more in away games where they average 2.05 per match, the most of any team. They have only won a single road game out of five this season but that came in their most recent away fixture, an impressive 4-1 victory at Sandnes. This is a team clearly on an upward trend and they are well managed by Christian Johnsen who has been at the club for over 5 years now. You know what you are going to get from this team in an attacking 4-4-3 system.

I would probably bet against Stjørdals-Blink whoever they were facing in this round but the way the fixtures work out is perfect because Raufoss travel here in great form. They should be able to get the 3 points and odds of 1.95 look generous enough on the visitors. Blinks are in a mess both on and off the field and I am not sure they will be properly focused. It has been a difficult week for this team and the third game in the space of a week can be really tough on the legs, especially considering the fact they played with 10 men for half the game vs Start last weekend, then got run ragged by Stabaek on Thursday. Raufoss should show their class and continue their momentum by winning this fixture.

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Sogndal v Grorud

Sogndal could only draw 1-1 at home to Fredrikstad on Thursday evening. They conceded a late equaliser and have now dropped out of the playoff positions down to 7th spot. Sogndal have had a mixed campaign and their main problem has been a lack of clean sheets. Only once since the opening two rounds have Tore Andre Flo’s men managed to shut out the opposition and that was against a Mjøndalen side who have the lowest average xG in the entire league. Sogndal have at least got plenty of firepower and scored at least one goal in all their last 11 matches. Sogndal are ranked mid-range with their xG and xGA metrics. They are performing pretty much as expected on 21 points and with a +1 goal difference. Manager Tore Andre Flo likes to play in an attacking style with a 4-4-2 system. Sogndal have a 4-2-1 home record and will expect to win this fixture facing struggling Grorud.

The visitors remain the only team in the OBOS Ligaen yet to win a game of football this season. They have drawn 6 out of 13 fixtures and are as high as 14th place though. Grorud have conceded a whopping 28 goals which is one of the worst records. Their average xGA per game of 1.80 demonstrates this is no fluke and only Åsane rank worse in that category. The one positive for Grorud is that they have generally performed better away from home, picking up 3 draws in their last 5 road fixtures. The part time club from Oslo have scored 17 overall goals which is the most of any team currently inside the bottom six. Their goal scoring has at least managed to keep them somewhat competitive. Winger Nikolai Jakobsen Hristov has been in good recent form and is someone to keep an eye on here.

It was disappointing that Sogndal’s match vs Fredrikstad didn’t go over 2.5 goals on Thursday. A scoreless first half didn’t help matters. It would be a surprise if this game wasn’t littered with goals though. Odds of 1.47 are hardly the biggest in the world but Sogndal themselves can cover this line on their own facing such a terrible defence. Let’s not forget about Sogndal’s defensive vulnerabilities either though. Grorud have scored at least one goal in 7 of their last 8 matches so should also be able to contribute. Either way, over 2.5 goals look very likely in this fixture.

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18+ please gamble responsibly.

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