Kongsvinger v Stjørdals-Blink
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Sunday 17th July – 2:00PM KO
Kongsvinger are unbeaten in their last five OBOS Ligaen matches and strung together a solid bunch of results recently. They have drawn four of those fixtures but faced some decent opposition in the form of Ranheim, Start & Fredrikstad. Kongsvinger are in 11th place on 14 points which is a very acceptable position for the club this season following promotion. The home side have only won three matches but know this is an excellent opportunity to obtain another victory. Kongsvinger have the 11th best xG in the league per 90 mins (1.37) which is very respectable considering their expectations. KIL have perhaps been fortunate at the other end of the field with an overall xGA of 24.22 and only conceded 19 goals. Their defence has been much better in recent weeks though, conceding only three goals in their last four games.
Stjørdals-Blink continue to be in a mess both on and off the field. They sit bottom of the table, although with Grorud and Skeid also having such poor seasons the 14th place relegation playoff is perhaps still up for grabs. They have won just 1 out of 14 matches and lost 7 of their last 9 OBOS fixtures. Blinks have scored just 14 goals, the lowest tally of any side and conceded a whopping 29 which ranks second worst. The biggest issue for Stjørdals-Blink have been off-the-field financial problems though. The club has recently asked the entire squad to switch to a minimum wage salary for the rest of the season. A total of five regular starters have now departed, the most recent being top scorer Sondre Stokke and experienced left-back Aleksander Foosnaes. The club looks to have secured its short-term future, but the cost will surely be relegation. They just don’t have the depth or quality. This was already a lower calibre squad at the start of the season and now it is even worse.
Right now, Stjørdals-Blink are an automatic fade for pretty much whoever they face. This is a very difficult period for everyone, and the main aim right now is just to secure their existence as a football club. Off the field matters have been so severe that it has clearly affected their on-the-field results and playing squad. Kongsvinger are not a massive price to win here at 1.47 but they are in a very favourable situation facing a club in crisis. They should get the 3 points whether it be a convincing victory or just a small one. The best bet is to simply take them straight on the nose to win.
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Prediction: Kongsvinger to Win, 1.50 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)
Ranheim v Sogndal
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Sunday 17th July – 2:00PM KO
Ranheim have been one of the red hot form teams in the OBOS Ligaen in the last few weeks. They went on an unbeaten 8-match run which included 6 victories, before losing away to Sandnes 2-3 last week. That was a surprise defeat because Ranheim had been in such great form. They even led 1-0 in that game but couldn’t preserve their advantage. Ranheim remain in third position and the semi-professional side from Trondheim are strongly in the hunt for promotion this campaign. Ranheim are the second highest scoring team in the OBOS Ligaen with 27 goals. They have overachieved their xG of 20.72 so that is something to watch out for as the season progresses, but nobody can deny they have been strong and clinical when presented with chances. They have several players who are good enough for Eliteserien level and leading assist provider Erik Tonne is too good for this league. Top scorer Marcus Menhert is a proven goalscorer at this level and very reliable.
The visitors Sogndal are in 5th place and generally had a strong season under the management of ex-Chelsea man Tore Andre Flo. They head into this match on the back of a convincing 4-0 victory vs Skeid last week. They were expected to take victory in that fixture but to do so in such a convincing manner will have been a major boost. Flo implements an attacking 4-4-2 system and Sogndal are one of the highest scoring teams in the division with 25 goals. They have shipped in plenty at the other end though (20) and the clean sheet obtained last week was one of their few this season. On the road Sogndal have a mixed record with 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats. They are very inconsistent but still on course to make the playoffs which would be in line with the objectives of the club. The key man in attack is Icelandic winger Jonatan Ingi Jonsson who has weighed in with 6 goals and 4 assists.
Ranheim are evens favourites to win this match which looks like a fair price. They are generally in better form and overall have the better squad. I would not be at all surprised to see them get the 3 points, but the best bet looks to be taking over 2.5 goals. Ranheim are on a run of 9 consecutive over 2.5 goal games and just have that knack of being involved in shootouts and goal fests. Sogndal are no strangers to high-scoring matches either with 8 of their last 10 fixtures containing at least three goals. This is going to be an open match between two attack-minded sides. The odds of 1.50 aren’t exactly massive for this bet but it looks like a really safe play. Both sides are capable of scoring plenty of goals, whilst neither defence is especially strong.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals, 1.50 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)
Raufoss v Brann
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Monday 18th July – 5:00PM KO
Two in-form sides meet at the Nammo Stadion where Raufoss will attempt to become the first side to beat Brann this season. Raufoss are on a great run of five consecutive victories and are up to 9th in the table, still with a game in hand. They have faced a mixed schedule in this period but wins against both Sandnes and Mjøndalen are quite impressive. Raufoss are probably the most underrated side in the OBOS Ligaen. Even this latest great run of form has almost gone under the radar with pundits preferring to talk about some of the other higher profile sides in the promotion mixer. Raufoss have the 4th best xG per 90 mins in the entire league (1.77) and have actually scored five goals less than what they are expected. At the other end of the field, they have the 2nd best xG of any side at home (1.07 per 90 mins). Manager Christian Johnsen has been at the club for over 5 years, and you know exactly what you are going to get with his 4-3-3 approach.
Can anyone stop the Brann train? They are 9 points clear at the top of the league with 11 wins and 3 draws. Stabaek came close to beating them last week and Brann required a 79th minute Bård Finne equaliser to rescue a 1-1 draw. It was a wild game of football with several chances at both ends, somehow the match ended under 2.5 goals. That draw ended a run of nine consecutive Brann victories and they are well on course to win the OBOS Ligaen this season. They are quite simply too good for this level and drawing against Stabaek, who are probably the second best side at this level is no real disgrace. Brann are top of pretty much every statistic and metric that matters. Their average xG per 90 mins is a massive 2.33, which is miles clear of everyone else. They have scored an astronomical 39 goals and conceded just 9 times. They also have the best xGA per match (0.85). They have far too many players who are of Eliteserien quality. The likes of Mathias Rasmussen, Niklas Castro and Sivert Heltne Nilsen are the key players in this team. Bård Finne is top scorer with 12 goals but isn’t even a guaranteed starter!
Brann are short-priced favourites to win this match at 1.48. I expect them to take all three points, but my preferred bet is over 2.5 goals. Both teams have a lot of scoring power and are high in xG metrics. Each defence is quite solid but since the opening day of the season, Raufoss have failed to score at least one goal in only one single fixture. Brann recently conceded goals to both Stjørdals-Blink and Bryne so they can sometimes lose focus at the back. The visitors could of course cover an over 2.5 goal line all on their own, such is their scoring power. Overall combined, at least three goals should be netted in this fixture which makes over 2.5 very appealing.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals, 1.50 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)
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