Fredrikstad v Grorud

A 2-0 victory away to Bryne last week ended a run of seven OBOS Ligaen games without a victory for Fredrikstad. It was a much needed victory and moved them up to 10th in the table. FFK had drawn four straight games in a row, including two 0-0s which are rather unusual for this league. They are a fully professional club and one of the fallen giants of Norwegian football. They have one of the biggest club stadiums in the county and are very well supported. In many ways, this team belongs at Eliteserien level and FFK certainly still harbour playoff ambitions this season. Fredrikstad have conceded 17 goals in 14 games but have kept 6 clean sheets which is quite an impressive statistic in a high scoring league such as the OBOS. Interestingly, they have the 5th worst average xGA of any team per 90 mins though (1.68). They are a difficult team to predict and have a defence which is capable of being very solid, or randomly really bad. In Mads Nielsen they have one of the most dependable centre backs in the league and on the wings, Nicolay Solberg would easily be an Eliteserien-level player. 

Travelling here are a Grorud side who remarkably still haven’t won a game of football this season. They have drawn 6 times out of 15 games but are now on a run of five consecutive defeats. Grorud have conceded far too many goals this season, 33 in total and it is no surprise to see them have the second worst xGA average in the league at 1.81 per game. The semi-professional club based in the Oslo region are one of the poorest teams in the OBOS Ligaen. However, because Skeid and Stjørdals-Blink are also terrible then there is still a chance they could finish 14th and get the relegation playoff position. There are not many positive things to say about Grorud. They do have a better away record with 4 draws and 4 defeats, but they haven’t kept a single clean sheet all season. Last week’s 0-1 home loss to Mjøndalen was the first time that they hadn’t conceded at least two goals in a game since the middle of May.

Fredrikstad are 1.50 favourites to win this match which is a perfectly fair price. They should comfortably win against a poor side like Grorud. FFK can sometimes be unreliable though. They blew a 2-0 lead vs Åsane here a few weeks ago and only ended up drawing 2-2. Earlier in the season they could also only draw 2-2 away against Grorud in the reverse fixture, in addition to another 2-2 vs Stjørdals-Blink. Therefore, I think the best bet is for Fredrikstad to score over 1.5 goals. Against such a poor defence I would be surprised if the home side won exactly 1-0 and this team total bet feels like a safer play, just in case the Fredrikstad defence has an off day.

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Skeid v Raufoss

Both sides suffered defeats last week, but Skeid will probably feel the most devastated. They led Åsane 2-0 but eventually succumbed 2-3 and conceded goals in the 86th and 91st minute. It was incredibly their 13th defeat this season in 15 games. It has been a massive struggle for the semi-professional outfit upon their promotion. To be brutally honest they aren’t good enough for OBOS Ligaen football. Due to how poor Stjørdals-Blink and Grorud are though, the relegation spot in 14th is absolutely up for grabs. Skeid only have 6 points on the board but have everything to play for. The big problem for Skeid all season has been a shambles of a defence which has conceded a league-high 34 goals. Their xGA is only 24 so they have vastly underachieved this metric, but when you concede so many goals then there is no smoke without fire. Both of Skeid’s wins this season have come at home and they have at least offered a threat in front of their own fans, netting 14 times which is the most of any side at home outside of the current top six.

Raufoss are the visitors this weekend and they will be licking their wounds after getting easily beaten 0-5 at home to Brann in the previous round. Very few teams have managed to avoid defeat vs the current runaway league leaders though and Raufoss cannot be too over-critical of themselves. That loss ended an impressive run of five straight victories, and they remain in 9th place, still with a game in hand. Raufoss are an underrated side and have the 5th best xG average per 90 mins out of any team (1.64). That improves to 1.94 in away matches. At the other end of the field their xGA per away matches is a massive 1.94, the most of any team. They recently lost right back Herman Haugen who returned to Viking after a successful loan spell. The first match he missed was last week’s 0-5 defeat to Brann and they certainly missed his presence. Raufoss have only lost one of their last five road matches and will expect to win this fixture.

The visitors are as big as 2.30 to win this match which looks like a massive price. Let’s not forget that Skeid have lost a whopping 13 out of 15 OBOS fixtures this season. However, I think the best bet is taking over 2.5 goals at 1.60. This looks a very acceptable price in a match which should contain several goals. Skeid have a shocking defence and Raufoss have very poor xGA metrics away from home. Raufoss do have plenty of goals in them though and even Skeid cannot be discounted from netting in home games. Both teams scoring is also very likely to happen in this match, but that price is 1.50. I prefer to take over 2.5 in case Raufoss claimed a convincing 3-0 or 4-0 victory. Whichever end they come at, there should be at least three goals in this contest.

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Sandnes v Åsane

A run of three consecutive wins has moved Sandnes up to fourth place in the league and they are definitely one of the contenders for the second automatic promotion spot behind Brann. Expectations were always fairly high for a club who are fully professional and the minimum objective for them this season is to finish in the playoffs. Victories against rivals for those positions Ranheim and Start have shown their credentials for promotion and this is a team in good form. Sandnes have the 7th best xG per 90 mins any side (1.54) but this extended to 1.80 in home matches. They certainly have a defensive issue and have conceded the most goals out of any side in the top ten. Sandnes have an xGA of 1.65 per 90 mins which is not that great and probably needs to improve a bit if they are to cement themselves as a guaranteed playoff side. Striker Martin Ramsland remains the top scorer with six goals, but he has fired blanks in all of their last five fixtures. He did register two crucial assists vs Ranheim though.

Åsane travel here on the back of a superb come from behind victory 3-2 vs Skeid last week. They are up to 12th place on 17 points but are probably the most overrated side in the division. They still have the worst xGA per 90 mins out of any side in the league (1.86) and have conceded a massive 30 goals. At the other end of the field their xG is the third worst in the league (1.15 per match) and that is a metric they have constantly been overachieving all season. Basically, this Åsane side are not very good and are lucky to have obtained 17 points. They are one of the worst teams in the league but have a knack of getting results. Their ability to score timely goals are the right moment has been the key to their success. Åsane have not kept a single clean sheet all season which is a major Achilles heel. They are only a semi-professional club but managed to beat Sandnes 2-1 in the reverse fixture which might give them a boost.

It is no surprise to see the home team 1.70 favourites to win. If anything, that is probably a generous price because Sandnes really should have too much for a poor Åsane outfit. There is a concern that Sandnes concede too many goals though and that they lost the reverse fixture. It would not be a surprise to see over 2.5 goals in this match or both teams scoring. But I think the best bet is for Sandnes to score over 1.5 goals. Against one of the worst defences in the league and statistically the worst xGA average they should be able to fill their boots and hit the back of the net at least twice. Whether that means they win the match or not it really doesn’t matter because at odds of 1.57 this is probably the safer option. 

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Stjørdals-Blink vs Bryne

Matters remain difficult for Stjørdals-Blink both on and off the pitch. Their biggest issue has been financial with the club at major risk of going bankrupt and folding completely. Emergency measures had to be proposed by the management including a minimum salary for all players and staff for the remainder of the season. Most segments agreed to these proposals but understandably some players could not accept. A total of six players have now left Stjørdals-Blink, most of them important regulars including top scorer Sondre Stokke and left back Aleksander Foosnaes. It looks like everyone else is staying, for now. They do not have the biggest of squads though and this was a team already low on quality and depth. If Blinks survive this season, it will either be because they somehow manage to wrangle excellent loan deals or because Grorud and Skeid are even worse. They are rock bottom of the league with just one win and have the worst defensive and offensive record in the OBOS Ligaen. The 14th place relegation playoff spot is still up for grabs though, such is the poor nature of all three teams currently on 6 points.

Bryne are the side who are closest to the bottom three in 13th place. They have a seven point cushion though and are comfortably in control of avoiding the drop. The fully professional club from Southwest Norway are the second lowest scoring team in the division with just 15 goals but they have only conceded 21 times. That is significantly better than all the bottom three teams and also Åsane who are just above them in the table. Bryne only have an xGA of 1.48 per 90 mins which is fairly respectable. Their away record of just 1 win in 7 games is worrying but that lone victory did come in their most recent road trip 2-1 at Skeid. They only lost 2-1 away to Brann a few weeks ago which is as close as most teams have got to the runaway league leaders. 6 of Bryne’s 7 road games have ended with over 2.5 goals this season but when these two teams met at the end of June it ended 0-0. Things have changed since then though and Stjørdals-Blink have lost 6 players, including several starting defenders. All things are pointing towards a low scoring match between two teams who struggle to hit the back of the net. Blinks looked toothless last week losing 0-5 to Kongsvinger and must be considered an automatic fade whoever they face right now. They have more of a chance in this match because Bryne are one of the poorer teams in the division. Nevertheless, betting against Stjørdals-Blink has been a cash machine recently and it is worth nibbling on Bryne at a decent 2.05 price. They are the better of the two teams and they can take advantage of Blinks’ problems both on and off the field.

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